TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Sunday, April 23, 2006

Some impressions from the NL Central

It's nice to see Morgan Ensberg and Brad Lidge get off to solid starts after their struggles towards the end of the 2005 postseason. Along with Lance Berkman being Lance Berkman, Craig Biggio finding new life (for the first few weeks of the season, at least) at age 40, and Wandy Rodriguez doing his best Roger Clemens impersonationm Ensberg and Lidge have helped the Astros to an early stint at first place in a suddenly competetive NL Central race.

Is the NL MVP race already over? Maybe it's too early to call after fewer than 20 games, but Albert Pujols is tearing it up. The thing is, outside of the 11 dingers in the Cards' first 18 games, his stats don't look too much different from what he produces year in and year out. If you take what he's done in these first 18 games, and then figure that for each subsequent batch of 18 games he averages 5 doubles and 5 homers and continues to hit .333, he'll have 43 2B and 51 HR to go along with that .333 average.

The scary thing is that that really doesn't seem like a reach for Pujols, not in the least. The other scary thing is that it looks like this could be the year that Pujols has his first monster walk total for the season. He's always had decent plate discipline that has steadily improved over the years -- his walk totals in his first five seasons were 69, 72, 79, 84, and 97. But he has 18 walks in his first 18 games, and I'm pretty sure I can do the math in my head to figure out what that projects to for a full season. Even if he doesn't draw a full 162 walks this year, having a walk total in the 120-140 range is only going to help his rate stats, and if the first 18 games are any indication, his counting stats won't suffer too much, either.

Turning to the Cubs, I guess 18 games isn't enough time for the book to form on Ronny Cedeno. The kid has gotten off to a faster start than anyone had a right to expect, with 20 hits in his first 55 AB, including 6 2B and 2 3B. For the most part he has done it in the 8-hole of the lineup, but he has been pressed into the 2-slot with Todd Walker sliding down to the 3-hole (and sliding over to first base) in Derrek Lee's absence. Stay tuned to see when, or perhaps if, the league catches up with the Cubs' young shortstop.

And speaking of Todd Walker, I don't think this is the way he would've wanted it, but he has a golden opportunity to show Dusty Baker that he needs to be in the lineup for 150 games this season. He's not going to hit .408 for the season, but he is going to get his chance to show his stuff with Juan Pierre and Cedeno hitting in front of him and Aramis Ramirez hitting behind him. If he continues to produce at a high level, it'll be awfully difficult to rope him back into a platoon situation with Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Neifi Perez.

There was one other thing I was going to write about, but it seems to have slipped my mind. And now I must be off to the $0.99 store. Thriftiness is the watch-word of the day, after all. Until next time...

posted by Tom Renbarger 7:20 PM