Saturday, May 28, 2005
A Modest Proposal
This idea's been kicking around in the back of my head for a while. In the standings in your local newspaper or internet site, teams are always represented as being XX number of "games back". I don't quite know when this traditional way of calculating the standings started, or even if it orginated in baseball, but I do know it's sadly uninformative.
The main problem, of course, is that it's not really the number of "games back" a team is -- otherwise it would be a whole number. Differences in the wins and losses caused by teams having played an unequal number of games -- which is pretty standard for the entire season -- are resolved by the unhappy convention of the "half game". When teams get out of synch from one another by two or three or more games, even resolving the consequences of half games becomes difficult.
The way we baseball whackos resolve this, of course, is by looking at the AILC -- the All-Important-Loss-Column. This, after all, is ultimately what counts, since a team cannot "unlose" a game, but indeed can win "extra" games above and over the team that may be leading them by a half game in the standings that has played one or more games. This is why the AILC becomes the focus of pennant watchers in September, before the "magic number" watching takes over.
Now, all this standings-watching is complicated by the introduction of the wildcard. To show which team is ahead in the wildcard standings later in the season, many papers and on-line sources have resorted to having two sets of standings, one for the divisional races, and another abstracted list of the teams that are not division leaders but which are in contention for the wildcard, as if they were in yet-another-division. In addition to being a waste of column space, this "innovation" is also inaccurate when teams are vying for both a wildcard spot and a division crown, as happens pretty much every year in at least one division per league, sometimes all three. The team that might be a half game in the division lead ought to be represented as being a half game above the second place team in its same division that is represented as being in the lead of the separate wildcard standings.
My proposed solution to this minor problem of tablature is to dump "games behind" as the measure in the standings, and replace it with "games above or below .500". A team's record would be represented as, say, "+6" if it were six games above .500, "0" if it were, say, at exactly .500, and "-3" if it were three games below .500.
One objection might be that anybody can figure this out just by looking at wins and losses in the standings. True -- but doing this for every team in the league is tedious. The use of whole integers above or below .500 would allow one to glance through a single set of standings and quickly see not only who the divisional leaders are, but which teams are in the wildcard race simply by the number of games above .500.
Now, this does not do away with the problem of figuring out the relative chances of teams that have not played the same number of games. What it does do is get rid of that silly "half game".
I do have an idea for making the standings a little more obvious in this regard, but this is probably a bit too radical for most readers of the sports page. Wins and Losses are meaningless stats without knowing how many games are left. Now, as things stand, you add them together and subtract from 162, compare it all the other teams, and you have a range of games yet to be played -- and that may be won, thus avoiding adding to the All-Important Loss Column -- and a better idea of what each team has to do in order to win a playoff spot, in conjunction with my "Games Above .500" column.
Now, honestly, we don't actually need both wins and losses. Since the LC is AI, one ought to be able to simply rely on standings that were expressed as "losses" "Games to be Played" and "Games above .500", but somehow I don't think that would fly. Wins is nearly as informative if you also have "Games to Be Played" listed -- the wins would always count up, the "Games to Be Played" would always count down, and the "Games above .500" would show the relative balance.
That said, I don't expect many papers to drop one of either wins or losses, but you could shave off home and away records off some standings tables without much woe -- this is not, after all, primary information -- and add that "Games To Be Played" and "Games Above .500" first, wean the public to reading that, and then drop the silly "Games Behind" column a few years hence.
Once upon a time, papers didn't have extended box scores, featuring batting average and ERA or extended stats at the bottom. Frankly USA Today gets most of the credit for introducing extended box scores, back when the paper version of that organ was the best source for comprehensive box score information. Other papers have adopted this format, more or less, at least the papers that have serious sports sections. So while a lobbying effort for "Games Behind" might be a good thing, the only way I think changes in our basic box score format are going to happen are for one major organ to start using it, and for fans to react and become happy with the concept.
It is probably beyond the editorial resources of The Diamond Angle to have daily updated-standings in the new format, but I may try to get the discipline together to at least try a daily update in September. That way you regular TDA readers can see the idea in practice and decide if it's a good idea or not.
posted by The Crank 7:24 PM
Tuesday, May 24, 2005
In the News...
An alert reader spotted some of our old work referenced in the Detroit News. Our last encounted with the Detroit News was back when they closed Tiger Stadium. Tom Renbarger and I had driven in from Chicago to see the game, and were interviewed by a reporter. He told us to pick up a paper the next day. "Free Press?" I asked, as that was the paper I always associated with Detroit. He scowled and replied "Detroit News."
posted by David 9:13 AM
Monday, May 23, 2005
Jeff Francis Turning Heads In Colorado
Canadian lefty a bright spot in bleak Rockies season
Things were not expected to go well for the Rockies this season. After posting their second worst record in franchise history in 2004 (68-94) the Rockies and General Manager Dan O'Dowd knew the organization had to take a different direction after years of ineptness. The Rockies have decided to try to develop players within their system instead of spending lavishly on free agents and hoping for quick fixes. The rebuild is officially on and that means even more struggles for a franchise that has not had very much success since joining the National League in 1993.
Going into Monday's play, the Rockies have a dismal record of 13-28 and are sitting 12 full games behind the first place Arizona Diamondbacks in the National League West. One would be led to believe that there have been no bright spots for the Rockies so far this season but that is certainly not the case. One of their home grown products is starting to make his mark in the major leagues.
Jeff Francis, a Canadian from North Delta, British Columbia who was drafted ninth overall by the Rockies in 2002, is sporting an impressive record of 4-1. Somebody forgot to tell Francis that Coors Field is a pitcher's nightmare and that nobody is supposed to have any kind of sustained success there. Dating back to his major league callup late last season, the left hander is undefeated at Coors Field sporting a record of 5-0 with an ERA of 2.78. Francis is 3-0 at home this season with an ERA of 2.92. The 24 year old left-hander is getting some attention and has at least given Rockies fans a reason to pay attention to their team-once every five days anyway.
Francis was Baseball America's 2004 Minor League Player of the Year. His first professional season (2002) ended early when he was struck in the head by a line drive while sitting in the dugout. After struggling early in 2003 Francis began to dominate the minor leagues finishing off the season with 10 wins in his final 17 starts at Class A Visilia. Francis began the 2004 campaign in the Texas League at AA Tulsa and proceeded to go 13-1 with a 1.98 ERA. It was clear then that Francis' minor league career was going to be a relatively short one. He then made the jump to AAA Colorado Springs and finished up the season by going 3-2 with a 2.85 ERA. He fanned 213 batters over 170 innings at three different levels of professional baseball in 2004. Francis knew he would be given a chance this spring to make the big club and he took full advantage of the opportunity. He made the club and needless to say he has not looked back.
This past Thursday Francis took the mound at Coors Field against the San Francisco Giants and pitched the kind of game that is rarely seen in the Mile High City. Where home runs and high scoring games are the norm, Francis gave up one run over six innings, giving up 7 hits and striking out 5 Giants. The Rockies bullpen delivered as three relievers closed out the game preserving Francis' fourth win of the season.
Francis is listed at 6 feet five inches and 200 pounds. It is hard to believe there is that much weight on his sleight frame and he doesn't even look close to being as old as his drivers license states. His fastball is routinely below 90 MPH and curve balls tend to not curve in the thin air of Denver. So how is Francis being successful? He is doing it with a devastating change-up and hitting his target. He also takes the mound at Coors Field with the confidence that he can pitch well there and is showing maturity rarely seen by players-let alone pitchers in their first full major league season.
Canadian born baseball players are starting to have an impact at the major league level. As Larry Walker winds down a long successful career that includes an MVP award, 2 batting titles and several Gold Glove awards, the next wave of Canucks are starting to show that hockey is not the only sport that is played north of the border.
Jason Bay of the Pittsburgh Pirates, another British Columbia product, became the first Canadian to win the NL Rookie of the Year award when he was given the honor in 2004. It was the second consecutive year that a Canadian born player would win a MLB major post season award as Eric Gagne won the NL Cy Young award in 2003. Other Canadian stand-outs are Justin Morneau who is an imposing figure in the Minnesota Twins lineup and left-hander Erik Bedard who has helped solidify a Baltimore Orioles rotation that was suspect going into the 2005 season.
Jeff Francis has his sights set on the NL Rookie of the Year award in 2005 and it isn't hard to believe that he might one day be a Cy Young Award candidate if the Rockies become contenders.
After wasting millions and millions of dollars on pitchers such as Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle the Rockies should be proud of a player from their own system who is flourishing in a pitchers graveyard. Rockies fans should expect to go to opening day for the next several seasons and find Jeff Francis on the bump and watching his change-up sail around tombstones of pitchers who have died at Coors Field.
If Francis continues to pitch the way he has, Tony LaRussa will be hard pressed to leave him off the National League roster when the 2005 All Star Game heads to Detroit and Comerica Park in July.
posted by Dean Swanton 9:44 AM
