TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Monday, May 02, 2005

April Round-up

Some burning questions from our first month of play, and some tepid answers to go with them.

Are the White Sox for Real?

Nope. They're 3-3 outside the Central, and got lucky on a few squeakers with Minnesota. The pitching is fine, but it's not as good as it might seem given the anemic opposition hitters they've faced. The hitting has stunk. The White Sox start playing much better offensive teams in mid-May, and the Southside goose will start cooking faster than a brat on the grill at Harry Caray's Restaurant.

Pale hose supporters may rejoice at their team's best April ever, or they may curse the strangely lopsided schedules being churned out by MLB.

Who the heck is Brian Roberts?

...and will he keep punching out dingers? Well, unless Brady Anderson has decided to channel Roberts this year, the answer to the second question is, probably not. Roberts never even hit double digits in homers in any year, combining all levels. He's a perfectly solid little ballplayer with a high contact rate and a kind of average OBP history for a leadoff guy, but he's been given a steady job for the first time in his career. He is that magic age of 27, so a blossoming is not unexpected, but I'm thinking this is more of a second coming of Mike Lansing than Mr. 90210. OK, Mike Lansing with wheels. His homers have been just clearing the fences for the most part, and that contact rate suggests some offspeed stuff out of the zone coming his way in May.

So can the O's keep it up? Maybe. The pitching is below league-average, but the team is slugging over .500 and has nearly a .360 OBP. That's a nice 2-6 they have: Mora, Tejada, Sosa, Palmeiro, and Javy Lopez. They're swinging hard, but also swinging and missing a lot. Combine that with the team pitching's problems, and it does not augur for an Oriole juggernaut. The O's also have benifitted from Boston and New York's cooperation -- they've hit some sorry spots for those teams, and have cleaned up an otherwise easy schedule.

How 'Bout them Dodgers?

The Dodgers have played exclusively against the NL West, but for two games against the lowly Brewers. Along the way to a tidy 16-8 start, they've had two three-game losing streaks, including a sweep at Chavez Ravine by the re-tooled Diamondbacks. The club is at the top of the league offensively, which may come as a shocker to those waiting for Paul DePodesta to fall over when the training wheels came off. It's in the middle of the pack in pitching, balancing a few odd blowouts and three typical Coors games with the rest of the pitcher-friendly West parks. (Although it should be noted we're keeping an eye on Dodger Stadium's splits, now that there are new seats in what used to be ample foul territory.

My gut is that the team is pretty good in a weakNL West, but not .667 winning percentage good. San Diego will perk up, and it looks like Arizona at least will play the spoiler if not contend outright.

When Will the Media Shut Up About Steroids?

When Congress is safely out of session for the year, and when the Commissioner has handed out the millionth complimentary ticket to the Nationals to goverment officials and their families. Steroids are to Bud Selig what Terri Schiavo was to the Republican Party. It's a great way for Selig to simultaneously pander to his fatcat friends in Congress and try to make the union look like the bad guy. How else to explain his continual redoubling of the suspension penalties, and his eerie embrace of "Three Strikes, You're Out" for no apparent reason other than that it sounds good? But, sensationalist congressional hearings aside, there remains little evidence steroids are or were a widespread problem in baseball, this issue, too, will eventually pass to its reward. Probably not before it's kicked to death a few dozen more times, alas.

Holy Cow! Are the Yankees really this bad?

Possibly. The Yankees, it must be remembered time and again, are a pretty old team. A-Rod is their only regular younger than 30, and he crosses the great divide in July. They've got two forty-year-old-plus starting pitchers, even if they are Kevin Brown and Randy Johnson. Mussina's looking like a kind of old 36. The other starters, Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright, each come with a history of inconsistency and injury and only one solid year each on the back of their baseball cards. Two of their stars, Gary Sheffield and Jason Giambi, are embroiled in the steroids shenanigans. And the bullpen, while still impressive, has shown some cracks, notably with failures by Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera's Jones for the Boston Red Sox. Looking at the full bullpen list, that's a pretty old bullpen, too.

With age sometimes comes slow starts (every day, for me) so the Yanks probably won't be this terrible. But I would not be at all surprised if this was the year they had troubles making a run at the division. With Baltimore and to a degree Toronto playing well, and the Red Sox at least above .500 without the 1-2 men in their rotation, it's going to be a long season in the AL East. Brian Cashman has never gotten a chance to dump and rebuild with some star players built from inside the organization, and the Yanks' farm is looking a wee bit thin, and this may well be the year the piper has to be paid. Mind you, I wouldn't bet the rent money on it.

Has the Cubs' Abuse of their Pitchers Come Home to Roost?

All signs point to...yes. Kerry Wood on the DL, losing closers every third day, Mark Prior ineffective, you name it, the Cubs have had their pitching problems this year with what on paper looks like the best staff in baseball. I made the mistake, I think, of predicting the odds were for the Cubs to get lucky this year with their starting pitching, but I was for some bizarre reason willfully ignoring the Dusty Baker Effect.

How About that Start by Roger Clemens?

Five starts, five quality starts, 7 innings every time out...and is 1-1 for his troubles. Boy, the Astros are pretty bad out of the gate. Perhaps the media is bored with Clemens after he took the Stros to the playoffs last year and after his "retirement" the year before. As noted earlier in this column, old guys get tired, but Clemens seems to be the notable exception. He's probably not going to keep a 1.03 ERA up for the whole season, of course, but it'll be fun waiting for him to hit the inevitable rough patch and keep adjusting those career numbers.

posted by The Crank 2:02 PM