TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Saturday, April 09, 2005

Why the Florida Marlins will be celebrating in October

Over the past couple of months, every baseball publication, sports publication, and almost every sports internet site has listed their predictions for the 2005 baseball season. The so called "experts" inform baseball fans exactly how the season is going to play out, as if the 162 game regular season is meaningless. If you are a fan of the Yankees, Red Sox, Twins, Angels or Cardinals, you probably enjoy being informed that your team will once again be playing baseball in October, either by winning their respective division, or gaining a playoff berth via the wildcard. But I wonder how a Kansas City Royals fan feels after reading all these pre season previews and predictions informing them that their team will once again stink this season. Do Rockies fans really need to be reminded that they are in the early stages of a rebuild, and that there will be very little in the way of entertaining baseball being played at Coors Field in 2005- not by the Rockies anyway. In Pittsburgh, do fans have to be constantly reminded that the Pirates play in one of the nicest ballparks in all of baseball but that their team is downright ugly.

Many writers as well as many fans base their predictions on what team they believe has the best lineup from top to bottom . Others like to look at the pitchers on a team because many believe that you live and die with your pitching staff. Obviously pitching is an important part of a team and will certainly play a huge role in determining what kind of success a team will have over the course of a 162 game schedule. One could make an argument that a team doesn't necessarily need to have the strongest pitching staff in terms of talent, but that staying healthy is equally important. There are many teams in baseball that would be devastated by a serious injury to a number one or number two starter or even a closer. Most teams do not have the pitching depth to overcome such a significant loss. Of course predicting the overall health of a pitching staff during the course of the season is impossible, but I would argue that there wasn't one team in baseball that began the 2005 season without some concerns about their starting pitching, bullpen, or in some cases both.

I like to use simple math when trying to forecast the final standings in baseball. I've already been to two Seattle Mariners games this season and I have made observations about both the Mariners and the Minnesota Twins that I believe to be correct. The Mariners were inept on offense last season ranking at the bottom of the league in home runs (136) , runs scored (698) , and slugging percentage (.396) . Ichiro Suzuki broke the all time single season mark for most hits (262) and managed to score only 101 runs. A player who gets on base 311 times in a season should not rank seventeenth in the league in runs scored. The Mariners lost 99 games in 2005 after winning 302 games from 2001-2003. In the off season the organization opened up the vault and signed Adrian Beltre and Washington native Richie Sexson to large free agent contracts. Beltre had a monster season in LA where he hit 48 home runs and had 121 runs batted in. Sexson missed most of the season with the Diamondbacks but has twice hit more than 40 home runs in a season. Obviously adding these bats to any lineup is going to help but the question is how much? What I witnessed this past week is a team that has 6 spots in the lineup that contribute very little to run production. I can't justify picking them any higher than fourth place in the tough AL West. My heart tells me I'll be attending a parade in downtown Seattle in October, but my head tells me it's going to take a top tier starting pitcher and a whole lot more depth in their lineup before I'm watching a playoff game at Safeco Field.

In the Twins I saw an excellent baseball team that should once again be wrapping up the weak American League Central division by early September. They are strong on both sides of the ball. Every season they lose key players to free agency and every season General Manager Terry Ryan finds creative ways to fill those holes. I have seen more than one prediction that the Twins will win the World Series in 2005 and that is not unrealistic. If this is the year they manage to figure things out in the playoffs then there is no reason that cannot happen. Having starting pitchers like Johan Santana and Brad Radke, and a closer like Joe Nathan is not a bad way to head into the playoffs. Many are predicting big things from the Cleveland Indians this season and see them finishing atop the Central division. I fail to see how a team that has that many questions regarding their bullpen can knock off a team as solid as the Twins. Just the comparison between Joe Nathan and Indians closer Bob Wickman is enough to tell me that the Twins will finish the season with more wins than the Indians.

I am basing my predictions on common sense (Along with the simple math) knowing that I might possibly be wrong about where I have slotted many teams. However, I base my World Series winner prediction on what team I believe to have the best lineup in all of baseball. Certainly it must be the New York Yankees who added Randy Johnson to their already potent lineup. Maybe it's the Boston Red Sox who proved that playing as a team and being a bunch of "idiots" was the recipe for success. The St. Louis Cardinals look awfully strong and have arguably the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols. They field a team with enough talent to win the Fall Classic. Placing an early wager on any of these three teams would be a decent gamble, but I believe that the best team in baseball is the Florida Marlins and that they will be celebrating their third World Series title this October.

This is the lineup that Marlins manager Jack McKeon has the luxury of penciling in every day.

C-Paul LoDuca
1B-Carlos Delgado
2B-Luis Castillo
3B-Mike Lowell
SS-Alex Gonzalez
LF-Miguel Cabrera
CF-Juan Pierre
RF-Juan Encarnacion

Yankees fans more than likely prefer Alex Rodriguez over Mike Lowell, Derek Jeter over Alex Gonzalez and Gary Sheffield over Juan Encarnacion. But I will gladly take Carlos Delgado over Jason Giambi, Luis Castillo over Tony Womack and Juan Pierre over Bernie Williams on any given day. If I didn't respect the talent of Hideki Matsui as much as I do and what he brings to a lineup, I'd be taking Miguel Cabrera over him as well.

Send starters Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett and Dontrelle Willis to the mound with this lineup and I believe that the fans in Miami go home happy on most nights. The rotation does have some question marks as veteran Al Leiter returns to Florida and Ismael Valdez is slotted at the back end of the rotation. Guillermo Mota has yet to prove himself as a closer, but the Marlins appear to have enough quality arms to compliment a potent lineup.

The Marlins have two World Series titles in their relatively short history. In 1997 they defeated the Cleveland Indians in 7 games with a team that had an inflated payroll with many high priced free agents. The team was gutted before the corks on the last bottles of celebratory champagne were even popped. 6 years later the Marlins won a second title with a modest payroll of roughly 54 million dollars. Now General Manager Larry Beinfest works with a reasonable budget, but a budget that was increased significantly this past winter with the signing of free agent Carlos Delgado.

If you are going to spend 52 million dollars on a free agent, directing it towards a player who has averaged 37 home runs and 116 runs batted in over the last eight seasons is not a bad idea. Delgado brings his big bat and strong clubhouse presence over from Toronto and will be a huge addition to what was already a solid lineup. Delgado had many suitors including the Seattle Mariners, the New York Mets and the Texas Rangers. Delgado stated that winning was going to be an important factor in his decision on which team to sign with . It's easy to see why he chose the Florida Marlins.

The Marlins captured both their World Series titles by entering the playoffs as the National League wildcard team. The Atlanta Braves head into the 2005 season with a string of 13 consecutive National League East division titles to their credit. The Marlins will end that streak in 2005 and city officials in Miami should be making plans for a downtown parade sometime this coming October.

Who do these "experts" think they are anyway?

posted by Dean Swanton 12:25 AM