TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Wednesday, November 17, 2004

Swinging Sammy
An interested reader wanted to know what Sammy Sosa's chances were for passing up Reggie Jackson as the whiffingist man alive. Well, Sammy ended 2004 with 2110 career K's, 487 behind Reggie. He's projected to have 415 strikeouts by the end of his days, which gives him a 35% chance of doing it. I think that Sammy might be swinging more in the future, and there will be some team willing to have him on the roster, so I think that 35% is a low estimate.

The best other candidate I could find (somebody fairly young, lots of talent, lots of Ks) was Thome - he clocks in at 23% Nobody else is even close.

posted by David 10:25 PM

Monday, November 15, 2004

The Joy of Seven
Around this time last year I wrote an article called The Joy of Six, looking at Barry Bonds' sixth MVP season. Now that Bonds has won a seventh, let's look at the numbers again.

Since 1990, Barry has won 7 MVPs, the rest of the NL 8; and the Pendleton and Kent MVPs are sometimes held as suspect. With 7 MVPs in 19 years, Bonds has spent more than a third of his career as MVP. A chart we published last season puts this into perspective, showing MVPs and second, third, fourth and fifth place finishes:

Name	1	2	3	4	5	Comments
Bonds	7	2	0	1	2
Gwynn	0	0	1	0	0	Too many bad Padres teams
McGwire	0	1	0	1	1	Writers gave his MVP to Sammy
Sosa	1	1	0	0	0	Might catch Barry in homers, no chance in MVPs
Griffey	1	1	0	2	1	Used to be a good argument - "Junior vs. Barry"
A-Rod	1	2	1	0	0	Finally!
Thomas	2	1	2	0	0	Easy to forget how good Frank once was
Pete Rose	1	1	0	2	1	No Cooperstown either

Last season was more dramatic: he spent most of his time at the hospital with his ailing father, and had a series of game-winning hits when he returned from family leave. Although the Giants fell in the playoffs, they were playing in October. This year was walk after walk, with the playoffs disappearing for the Giants in inning 9 of game 161. However, the stats were more impressive this year than last:

OBP

1	Bonds	2004	.609
2	Bonds	2002	.582
3	Williams	1941	.553
4	Ruth	1923	.545
5	Ruth	1920	.532
6	Bonds	2003	.529
7	Williams	1957	.523
8	Ruth	1926	.516
9	Bonds	2001	.515
10	Ruth	1924	.513

Barry became the first player to break the .600 barrier. He was over 50 points higher than Ted Williams' old record. The top ten chart has 4 Bonds, 4 Ruths and 2 Williams. That's some company.

Slugging:

1	Bonds	2001	.864
2	Ruth	1920	.847
3	Ruth	1921	.846
4	Bonds	2004	.812
5	Bonds	2002	.799
6	Ruth	1927	.772
7	Gehrig	1927	.765
8	Ruth	1923	.764
9	Hornsby	1925	.756
10	McGwire	1998	.753

Barry posted the #4 slugging season, his 2003 gets pushed to #12.

In combination we get:
OPS

1	Bonds	2004	1.422
2	Bonds	2002	1.380
3	Ruth	1920	1.379
4	Bonds	2001	1.379
5	Ruth	1921	1.359
6	Ruth	1923	1.309
7	Williams	1941	1.287
8	Bonds	2003	1.278
9	Ruth	1927	1.258
10	Williams	1957	1.257

Barry takes the record by over 40 points. Note that like OBP, this is a chart with only three names.

Finally, we look at IBBs. Here's his 2004 and all of the non-Barry seasons that were over a quarter
of his year (note the gaps):

1.	Barry Bonds	120	2004
4.	Willie McCovey	45	1969
6.	Willie McCovey	40	1970
7.	Sammy Sosa	37	2001
10	John Olerud	33	1993
10	Ted Williams	33	1957
12	Vladimir Guerrero	32	2002
12	Kevin Mitchell	32	1989
15.	George Brett	31	1985

posted by David 8:25 AM