TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Saturday, July 24, 2004

Competitive Spite

Since the issue of Lance Armstrong and steroids has come up in the past, I found the second half of this article about Armstrong's exploits in asserting himself as the Pope of the Tour de France kind of interesting:

Armstrong, his rivals thoroughly beaten, was so relaxed he even had time during the 103.2-mile stage to tend to a little personal animosity with an Italian rider who has taken legal action against him.

Even though Filippo Simeoni represents no threat to Armstrong's imminent Tour victory, the five-time champion appeared determined not to let the Italian get ahead.

Armstrong, in a highly unusually move for a rider who is generally extremely careful, at one point surged off with Simeoni in pursuit of Mercado's escape group. They caught that group, stayed with them for a few minutes, and then suddenly eased up and waited for the trailing pack to catch up.

"It was bizarre, really strange," Mercado said.

It was not immediately clear what prompted Armstrong to act as he did. But an official from Armstrong's team suggested the champion's motives were personal.

Simeoni, an Italian with the Domina Vacanze squad, has testified against controversial sports doctor Michele Ferrari, with whom Armstrong has ties. Ferrari faces accusations of providing performance-enhancing substances to riders.

"It surely had something to do with what has happened," said Johan Bruyneel, sports manager of Armstrong's team. "Nobody was expecting it, and it wasn't planned, either."

Simeoni told an Italian court in 2002 that Ferrari advised him to take performance enhancers.

Armstrong was cryptic is explaining his motives for chasing Simeoni.

"I was protecting the interests of the peloton," he said, referring to the main pack. "Other riders were very, very thankful."

Sebastien Joly, a French rider who was in the escape group, said: "I think it was a reaction of pride on Armstrong's part."

The escape riders knew that their chances of winning the stage were nil while Armstrong was with them. So they asked Simeoni to leave, Joly explained.

"When he let go, Lance had the kindness to do the same thing," he said.

I guess the lesson here is if you tick off Armstrong, you get excommunicated from the lead pack. I guess that's still better than a baseball between the shoulder blades. Ain't spite grand?

posted by Tom Renbarger 1:42 AM

Friday, July 23, 2004

Meaningless Bonds Stat of the Day

One of the interesting contrasts of Barry Bonds' statistical record is he's never been a career .300 hitter. .300 of course was the traditional dividing line between a great hitter and a not-great hitter in the old-think. I'm always reminded of poor Jim Rice, stuck just shy of 400 HR and just shy of .300 (at .298)...if he's stuck around one more year he'd've had the home run milestone back when that was enough to get you into the hall of fame, and if he'd left the game one year earlier he'd've had .300, which would've helped.

In any event, Bonds is sitting on a .299 average, career, this year, and has been hitting about .364 at this writing. If he gets another 140 official at-bats (about whatt he's on pace for right now) and hits about .364 the rest of the way, he'll end up the year with the old career number right on .300.

One of the ironies, or at least eccentricities, of Bonds' prodigious on-base skills is he doesn't really quite appreciate them himself. He made a lot out of his finally winning a batting title a couple of years back, ignoring his half dozen OBP titles. But they don't give out silver bats for OBP.

In some ways, while I think the odds of this happening are diminishingly small at this point, it would be kind of cool if Bonds' career batting average ended up below .300, so we'd never be able to call him a "career .300 hitter" even as we admire him as the greatest offensive ballplayer of all-time in future years. It would be a useful way of dividing up the eras of baseball thought: the batting average era gives way to the OBP era, much as Ruth is synonymous with the dead ball era giving up its ghost.

posted by The Crank 12:01 AM

Thursday, July 22, 2004

A LOT OF RAND(Y)OMNESS

By Diane M. Grassi

As we have now crossed the threshold of the first half of the 2004 Major League Baseball season, we will begin to see the races tighten up amongst the contenders for the various leagues' division titles and the Wild Cards. This will also include teams making an assessment of what they need to remain competitive for the remainder of this year while some decide to think about 2005 instead. Along with that comes the trading deadline of July 31st, and the rigors GM's will go through to make deals and/or trade players. Since before and after this year's All Star break, most of the chatter from the press and baseball gurus alike has been about the "Randy Watch", better known as speculation that the Diamondbacks have asked pitcher, Randy Johnson, to drop the "no trade" clause in his contract so they can move him. Unfortunately this has overshadowed other players' feats on the field this week as well as other players deserving of media attention. But primarily the reason this leads the headlines and on sports TV is because it involves the NY Yankees, and is just one more opportunity for non-Yankee fans to dump on NY once again.

The difference this year is that all of a sudden, George Steinbrenner's cash dole may not be nearly enough. The luxury tax has kicked in a couple of times now for George, which has not even caused him to blink, but what is becoming evident this time around is that the small market teams may have finally leveled the playing field, so to speak, when it comes to dealing this season. What they have and what George hasn't got is farm prospects or up and coming players. The thought of trading established veteran commodities for a 41 year old Randy Johnson with $24 million left on his contract through next year, borders on insanity. (The Diamondbacks supposedly pitched the idea of acquiring Yankee catcher, Jorge Posada, as part of a deal for Johnson.)

What has not been given enough attention until maybe this year, is that many of these small market clubs have learned to develop their farm systems and have learned how to make deals with other teams by trading players rather than laying out cash, which they don't have. And the Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and even the Detroit Tigers are just some of those teams now enjoying the fruit of those efforts. While the big guys were busy buying up the smaller teams' remaining big stars, which some smaller owners felt they could not unload soon enough, these previously losing teams were left with a well of up and coming talent, which they were forced to develop. It will serve them well for the future too. Clubs with large payrolls have aged and have run out of reserves to trade or to develop. That is going to become a different kind of problem which MLB will have to address as a whole. Player development will have to be a high priority for the likes of NY, LA and Boston. Baseball owners need to appreciate this, and continue to build upon their teams for more than one season at a time.

More specifically as concerns Randy Johnson, let's get serious. Even though he has had a wonderful 2004 season despite playing for the last place Diamondbacks, who are going to need to rebuild from scratch, and even though there are no apparent remnants of problems from his 2003 knee surgery, he's 41! And all it takes is a tweak here or there and he lands on the DL. Haven't the Yankees gotten it yet? Note Kevin Brown, who has been on the DL for six weeks at the age of 38. Acquiring Brown was even more ludicrous as he had been on the DL more often in the past few years than he had been on the field. When he performed he was great, but that was not very often. Additionally, the Yankee roster is aged and they must start developing their system again. So the only options now available to George Steinbrenner and the serfs who are in his employ is to start trading his active players on the field! This is wasteful and sets a bad precedent for all of baseball. Finally, we have more parity in baseball, but through one way or another, we will soon be entering another phase of the haves and have-nots. George will have his pile of cash with teams reminiscent of the 1980's when the Yankees never won any championships after winning the AL pennant in 1981.

And more importantly, there is some incredible baseball being played out there this season. We no longer need to be inundated with what Randy Johnson will or will not do. The game is bigger than any one player or any one owner. That is precisely what explains baseball's longevity. It is a team sport, made up of a collaboration of individual talents, unique in both respects. Nevertheless, baseball is primarily played as a team and in order for its legacy to remain its Commissioner, owners, players and their union must continue to be reminded that the good of the game of baseball should always come first.

posted by Diane M. Grassi 4:09 PM

Flag-Waiving at the Ballpark

The Yankees were the first among several clubs to rent the services of an Eagle named "Challenger" for a symbolic flight from the outfield to home plate, notably reprised during the 2003 World Series when Challenger swooped and nearly took out shortstop Derek Jeter. While the eagle is a majestic animal, and I freely admit to having been to a zoo or two in my time (counting Yankee Stadium), somehow the re-capturing of a formerly wild animal after a 400' flight does not to me say "freedom". It says "stage managed symbol". (I don't mean to be crass at all here, but is it really appropriate to name a winged animal after a space vehicle that exploded in mid-air? I suppose the answer is again "symbolism", imbuing the Eagle with a Phoenix-like attribute.)

SportsCenter covered Pat Tillman's death in great detail, as it should have. Tillman himself eschewed any publicity surrounding his decision to forgo millions in NFL salary and take up arms in service to his country, so perhaps would not have been pleased with his beatification in death. But not a word on SportsCenter or Baseball Tonight about Carlos Delgado's anti-war protests, despite the fact the Associated Press put out a wire story and it was the subject of controversy in New York. As I write this, the only mention of Delgado's Yankee Stadium protest on the ESPN.COM web site is the same AP article, which is fed to the site automatically.

In case you've missed it - and the way the mainstream media covers things, I wouldn't be surprised if you did- Carlos Delgado is engaging in a rather passive anti-war protest. When "God Bless America" is being played during the seventh-inning stretch, Delgado stays in the dugout.

The Yankees are the only team that does this every single game, with most other teams having scaled back the use of the extra patriotic song to Sundays. The Yankees have their reasons. Only a dreadful cynic would point out that the enforced ritual of standing on the field for an extra two minutes late in the game has resulted in the visiting team giving up more runs in the bottom of the seventh than prior to when the practice was adopted.

Delgado hasn't exactly been handed the Dixie-Chicks treatment, perhaps in part because so many people continue to ignorantly believe that Puerto Rico, whence Delgado hails, is not part of the United States. It is. Puerto Ricans are US Citizens. But it's probably because his protests haven't been covered at all by the mainstream US media. Only bloggers have really given it any attention.

The international press has covered this. The Toronto and San Juan papers have been following the story with some interest. Even the Jerusalem Times has covered the Delgado statement-protest. It finally trickled into the New York Times yesterday, thanks to the Jays arriving in Yankee Stadium.

Only the conspiracy-minded would point out that ESPN is part of the same ABC-Disney media conglomerate that refused to show Michael Moore's Fahrenheit 9/11. Right?

I'm a flag-waver myself. I have Old Glory out in front of the house 365 days a year, 366 this year. I love to sing the National Anthem at the ballgame, even when some wretched pop singer is inventing new notes and forgetting the words. I don't hold my hat over my heart during "God Bless America" because, as I explained to one outraged fan a couple of years ago, I prefer to reserve that honor for the national anthem.

But I am not fond of enforced "patriotic" rituals. The groupthink of a crowd is bad enough when the subject is Wade Boggs' girlfriend or Darryl Strawberry's first name. Using the power of intimidation of 50,000 people in a public place is the ultimate in stampeding bandwagon faux patriotism. Delgado is doing the right and appropriate gesture in walking out on the new, fake "anthem", which, if you look at the context of the Yankees, is not a patriotic gesture but a political one. The Yankees are very chummy with the Bushes. They invite the big Republican politicians to the front row boxes but not the Democratic ones (Ralph Nader probably wouldn't come, so we'll ignore third parties). Go to Fundrace.org and fish around the Tampa Bay zip codes for contributions from the Yankees limited partners.

George Steinbrenner is a convicted felon -- he was nabbed for making illegal contributions to the Nixon campaign in 1972 - can he vote in Florida, where he legally resides? I mention this again in this space since having a convicted felon as an owner seems kind of remarkable to me.

There's a lot more to this kind of connection between the baseball power structure, the anti-trust exemption and baseball's guaranteed monopoly, the incumbency rate in Congress, and general New York Post-style populism that would take up many more electrons to describe adequately. Let's just point out the obvious: the Yankees are institutionally in favor of the war, and by some interpretations the 7th-inning singing of songs not about Nelly Kelly are meant to reinforce that in the public mind.

The National Anthem wasn't played at games before World War I. Hard as it may be for the collective memory to appreciate, our country's entry into a European war was very controversial. Domestic critics of the war were imprisoned, peace activists beaten and prevented from peaceable protests, and anyone who wasn't publically for the war was considered to be a dangerous traitor. In that context, when ballplayers actually were forced to do military-style drills on the field with bats in place of rifles, the "tradition" of playing the Star-Spangled Banner was enforced on teams by the respective leagues. Baseball had its own agenda back then beyond spontaneous love of the Great War. The Wilson administration had threatened to cancel baseball as a drain on manpower and spare funds that might've gone to war bonds and so forth, and baseball was eager to demonstrate it was useful for rallying public support for the war. Even so, it didn't work, as the Wilson administration forced an early end to the 1918 season; the World Series was played in early September that year.

The "new tradition" continued on in the immediate post-war period, which was a time of great suspicion of Bolshevism and union activities, often lumped together. The Star-Spangled Banner wasn't even officially made our National Anthem until 1931.

Do I see some parallels? You bet. The original enforced use of the anthem during a time of war was used as a public litmus test of one's loyalty to the policies of the government engaged in the war. For whatever combination of reasons, that temporary practice has become a universal ritual at sporting events, to the point that it's possible to be ostracized - probable in some areas - if you deliberately choose not to. Even while the origins of the practice are obscure to most, the ritual remains.

Don't get me wrong - as I said, I personally love to sing the anthem and think of it as one of the great parts of the ritual of going to a baseball game. And I love the song "God Bless America", too.

But I don't think anybody who doesn't participate in the national anthem isn't a good person or unpatriotic. It's a tough song to sing, especially the way a lot of clubs abuse it (some teams actually charge the singers for the privilege of singing as part of a "showcase" deal.) To do so would be like accusing somebody of being a bad baseball fan for not singing "Take Me Out to the Ballgame".

I am reminded parenthetically of the very first game played by the Wilmington Blue Rocks. Prior to the first pitch, the fans were instructed by the PA announcer that they were going to start a "new tradition" -- lovely oxymoron, that -- by clapping until the starting pitcher got the first strike. This was cribbed from some college basketball fans who stood and clapped until the first basket, to be sure, and didn't really fit the whole baseball ethos. I instantly resented being instructed on how to behave as a fan in areas not directly related to the health, safety, and enjoyment of my fellow fans. The club wanted to stage-manage the fans, for the benefit of the fans, to try to convince them they were having a good time.

Delgado is engaging in a practice as American as Apple Pie and, well, Baseball - he's doing his own thing. He doesn't believe the war is right, and his form of protest is to sit out a ritual that had its origins in the murky beginnings of the current set of wars. Delgado, until recently, hasn't particularly sought publicity about this form of protest. I might add that he's donated a lot of his own money to help clean up the island of Vieques, the island site of a controversial Naval Practice Range off Puerto Rico; he's not a talking head activist.

I contrast this to the cheap and completely inaccurate symbolism of having a captured wild animal fly a few hundred feet only to return to chains. And forcing fans to stand up for yet another patriotic song, where the ritual becomes much more important than the meaning behind it. There's no doubt in my mind: Carlos Delgado is a better American than convicted felon George Steinbrenner.

posted by The Crank 1:39 PM

Wednesday, July 21, 2004

Simulated Blog Entry

I'm getting to the end of my blogging backlog tonight. It's clear that I haven't been at peak efficiency in the past week or so. Since I'm working my way back into top blogging shape, I'll pick up on a somewhat untimely theme in my simulated blog entry, the issue of where the Twins' All-Stars were, as I mentioned sometime a week or so ago. Specifically, why only one Twin All-Star vs. two for the Tigers and five for Cleveland. I'm not going to address the White Sox -- that's more David's show if he wants it, I was always more of a Cubs' fan. Hopefully once I finish this up I'll be ready for a game-situation blog.

The two Tigers All-Stars are no-doubters. Pudge and Carlos Guillen have been having monster seasons. We'll throw Victor Martinez with the no-brainers. Ronnie Belliard is a sleeper but he's definitely having a better year than any Twins infielder. This leaves Matt Lawton vs. Lew Ford and some Twins' pitchers to think about.

Position Players

The discussion begins and ends with Lew Ford. Had Torii Hunter been healthy the entire season and had power stats along the lines of low teens in homers and 50+ RBI by July 3 (the day before teams were announced), maybe when taken together with his first-rate glove work he would have been in the running.

Ford vs. Lawton is an interesting comparison. Here's how they stacked up through games played on July 3:

Ford/Lawton:

HR - 9/13
RBI - 40/47
AVG - .319/.315
OBP - .379/.384
SLG - .482/.476
R - 39/60
SB - 10-11/14-22
AB+BB - 311/348

It's close on the rate stats. Lawton had a little more than 10% more PA's. The 13-9 edge in homers probably helped, as did the 60-39 edge in runs. If you don't look closely, 14 steals to 10 looks good for Lawton as well, though Ford was by far the more efficient thief. Ford didn't have anyone like Martinez hitting behind him in the lineup, and also was stuck on 9 dingers since June 15. That's probably just enough to make Lawton a reserve and Ford one of the Final Vote candidates.

Pitchers

One possibility that snuck up on me was Juan Rincon. He was racking up the wins early but wasn't doing all that great, but he had a pretty big June. By the time of July 3, he was giving Tom Gordon a run for his money:

Rincon/Gordon

W-L - 8-3/2-2
SV - 2/2
BSV - 2/2
ERA - 1.94/1.51
G - 38/41
IP - 41.2/47.2
H - 27/25
BB - 21/13
K - 51/44
R - 10/9
ER - 9/8
K/9 - 11.0/8.3
Ratio - 1.15/0.81

Taken as a whole, Gordon probably does have the edge over Rincon, in addition to the decided advantage of his skipper doing the picking of the reserves. I'm trying to figure out when Rincon became an 11 K per 9 innings kind of a pitcher, that was a bit of an eye-opener for me. Also note that they both have the same number of blown saves, so Rincon's wins didn't come from blowing leads and having his team rally late.

Then there are the starters, Brad Radke and Johan Santana. I won't dwell on Santana for too long (well, "too long" might be subjective), since I've written a lot about him in the past month. But I will say enough to mention that he was 6-5 with a 4.22 ERA on July 3. That won't cut it, even if you're leading the league in strikeouts. His shutout of KC got him to 7-5 and 3.89 by the time Curt Schilling needed replacing, but Torre went with Jake Westbrook instead, who was 6-4 with an ERA over half a point lower than Santana (and of course lots of folks thought Cliff Lee and his 9-1 mark and sub-4 ERA should have been the pick).

Then Santana dropped the game right before the break, as I wrote about before, to wind up 7-6 and 3.78. The last words I want to mention about Santana are that he was basically three mistakes from being a no-brainer choice for the team. He gave up two-out, three-run homer in the sixth to Aubrey Huff in a 4-2 loss to Tampa Bay on June 3, a two-out homer in the first to Carlos Lee on July 1 in a 2-1 loss to the White Sox, and the two-out, two-run jack to Eric Munson in the 2-0 loss he suffered right before the break. Even considering the fact that the Twins have only scored him three runs in his last three losses, take those mistakes away and, assuming everything else played out the same way, Santana would've been riding a 7-game winning streak into the break, and been 9-3 with a 3.27 ERA. And the league-leader in K's, let's not forget.

OK, if that was keeping things brief for Santana, you know I've got a lot to say about Radke. He was 4-4 with a 3.70 ERA on July 3. The .500 record really did not do him any favors, and it's clear that even though C.C. Sabathia had only 8 decisions by June 30, the 5-3 & 2.77 ERA makes him a tough guy to pass up.

But in looking at Radke's 9 (!) no-decisions up to that point, a disturbing trend emerges. On Opening Day, the team actually bails him out. Radke leaves after 6 trailing 4-0, but the Twins rally with four in the 8th to tie the Indiana, and then Shannon Stewart (remember him?) has a game-winning 3-run shot in the 11th.

After that, there's a lot of frustration for Mr. Radke. By date:

May 1 - 7 shutout innings vs. Anaheim, leaves with score tied 0-0.

May 6 - 6 IP, 1 ER vs. Seattle, leaves with score tied 1-1.

May 17 - Leads 5-2 through 6 vs. Toronto, allows first two batters to reach in the 7th, is yanked and the bullpen blows the save.

May 28 - 7 IP, 1 ER vs. KC, leaves with score tied 1-1.

June 8 - 7 IP, 1 ER vs. NYM, leaves with score tied 1-1.

June 13 - 7 IP, 1 ER vs. PHI, leaves with score tied 1-1.

June 19 - 6.2 IP, 5 R, 2 ER, leaves with 5-4 lead and tying run on base, when Aaron Fultz gives up a go-ahead homer to Scott Podsednik.

June 24 - 6.2 IP, 3 ER, leaves with 3-1 lead in the 7th, blown save.

That's a pretty gruesome litany for Mr. Radke from the beginning of May onwards. Five games leaving either a scoreless or a 1-1 game, and three blown saves. Even on the 24th, Radke is 4-3 with a 3.22 ERA, and a strong outing against the White Sox might still see him to the ASG. Sadly, the Sox tag him for 8 ER in 6 innings, to get him to the record/ERA quoted above. Even his mid-week shutout of the Royals, which gets him to 5-4 and 3.42, isn't enough to get him on board.

As I finish this, Radke just left with a 12-2 lead through 7. I think he's going to get back to .500 tonight. The Twinkies needed to spread some of these runs around to Radke's past efforts, though.

posted by Tom Renbarger 6:48 PM

Tuesday, July 20, 2004

Mid-Season Crow-Eating from the Punditry

I got a few phone calls in October, 2002 since I'd predicted the Angels would win it all back in April of that year. Last year I picked the Phish for the wild card, and while I didn't predict them pre-season to win it all, I did pick them to get into the Series and then win it in six once the Red Sox were out. Here's a hint at establishing a reputation for uncanny predictions: just pick weirdo longshots, not necessarily bizarre but likely under some scenarios, that defy the conventional wisdom, and eventually one of them will come through and you will stand out of the crowd. Inaccurate predictions are discarded quickly, accurate ones hailed as genius, unless they're the same predictions everybody else is making. Nobody is hailed as a genius for picking the Yankees pre-season.

In any event, I like to take a look at my own falderal at the halfway point and after the season is over, in part to re-examine what actually happened, but also to check my own assumptions.

Here's my pre-season predictions from this space from back in April, with some commentary.

AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Orioles
4. Blue Jays
5. Devil Rays

You know, I'm going to stand by this predicted order of finish at the top, despite the Yankees' seeming dominance. Old teams fall apart in the second half, and Boston's pythagorean numbers are better than this. The Red Sox bullpen may be blowing games once again, but the Yankees are losing to Detroit and Tampa Bay this week, too.

I am going to promote the Devil Rays to fourth and flip the Jays and Orioles.


AL Central
1. Royals
2. Twins
3. White Sox
4. Cleveland's team
5. Tigers

In the "how wrong can one guy be" category, picking the Royals to win -- which I did largely on the basis that in a division where the personnel had not switched that significantly, the Royals had beat the Central head to head last year -- is a winner in itself. I won't dissect the Royals' woes in detail, but failure of nerve by the management I think is the basic issue. They sure were in a hurry to sell Beltran. Cleveland, of course, is probably the bigger surprise this year, but one wants to note the club is still three games below .500. And Detroit, despite much improvement -- young pitching maturing and adding All-Star Ivan Rodriguez -- is still not great, but closing in on mediocrity has to be considered a huge accomplishhment. I've always loved Detroit, I loved going to Tiger Stadium for games, I think Comerica was a mistake because Tiger fans thrived on the intimacy with their club the old park forced and the kind of game the park created. The Tigers have finally adapted to Comerica, though, in an odd way, and brought on a few veterans to play the roomy park (with newly-shortened fences). That said, I think it's still next year.

For order of finish, just take the Royals out of the top and move them to the bottom and that's my second-half prediction.

AL West
1. Angels
2. Mariners
3. Athletics
4. Rangers

Another really rotten set of predictions. I missed the fact the Mariners were getting that old. The Rangers are the big surprise in the West, leading in the AILC by three games at present. They will fade in the Texas summer heat. The Angels have struggled with their pitching, and surprisingly are balking at giving up talent from their incredibly-laden farm system for Randy Johnson. If not Johnson, then who? The A's have had their problems, particularly with the rotation after Hudson and Mulder, but the Magic Beanes seem to be doing their usual thing.

Still, I'm guessing the Angels will figure out a move or two the A's can't counter, and we'll end up like this: Angels, A's, Rangers, M's.

AL MVP: Vlad Guerrero
AL Cy Young: Curt Schilling
AL ROY: None of the Above

Hey! I'm looking like more of a genius now! Both these guys are among the top three candidates for the post-season awards.



NL East
1. Phillies
2. Marlins
3. Braves
4. Expos
5. Mets

I didn't rate the Expos highly pre-season, I just rated the Mets as really, really bad. I hate the lineup, I didn't like the pitching, I didn't like the strength of competition. The division has sturggled, with most of the teams hovering around .500 after the Expos, and Atlanta has put on a surge in the last month while the Philies' pitching staff has struggled to keep up with the new ballpark, which is playing like Coors East at sea level. The Phils were rumoured to be trying to dump Kevin Millwood for Matt Morris, a deal the Cards passed on, and that sounds like desperation about how to get their pitchers into the groove in the new park.

For a revised predicted order of finish, though, I'm going to just stick to the Phillies, Marlins, Braves, then Mets, then Expos. I don't see the Braves making the deal to get their offense together, and the likes of Nick Green and Charles Thomas can't carry them far. The Marlins have far too much starting pitching relative to the rest of the division to be ignored, and I'm only picking the Phils over the Phish on a hunch that the big Philly offense will punch through the opposition in September.

NL Central
1. Cubs
2. Astros
3. Cardinals
4. Reds
5. Brewers
6. Pirates

Ouch. I didn't see Jason Marquis and Chris Carpenter emerging as near-aces for the Cards, and this prediction was made on the assumption Mark Prior would be back and healthy in May, not still ailing in July. But the Astros can't possibly be this bad, with that offense and veteran, if somewhat creaky (I'm talking Pettite here, not Clemens) starting pitching. They shouldn't've traded away Dotel, but then again the problem is bullpen depth, not the closing job per se. I expect the Cards to fade just a bit, but with a 9-game lead in the loss column they should persevere and win it; I think second place, and the wild card, will be a toss-up between the Astros and Cubs. What about the Reds? What about them? They played well enough to look respectable, their starters have improved, but they lack lineup and pitching depth for the long-haul. Milwaukee and Pittsburgh actually have put together excellent pitching staffs of "B"-grade pitchers, and only the possibility Pittsburgh will trade away a few parts will keep them in the basement. But I think it's possible the Pirates will surprise and not finish below .500.

I'm going to be bold here and predict a last-place finish for the Reds, with Pittsburgh just ahead of them and the Brewers finishing fourth.

NL West
1. Padres
2. Dodgers
3. Giants
4. Rockies
5. Diamondbacks

Hey! Finally I get to be smart! The Padres have slipped the last couple of weeks, but the top three teams have been flipping position for a month, and I am standing by this predicted order of finish top to bottom. The Giants can't sustain this without more pitching, the Dodgers have taken a lot of hits in their rotation, and the Padres are without Phil Nevin right now. It's a pitcher's division right now, even with Colorado, and I think the Padres will end up with the best rotation when the dust settles.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
NL ROY: Aaron Miles (he has that Pat Listach flavor to him)

Oswalt has struggled as much as the Astros in putting away the final batters, and hasn't been helped by his bullpen. Roger Clemens certainly is the leading candidate on the Astros for the Cy Young, but my money's now on Jason Schmidt, who seems to be able to absorb punishing pitch counts and no help at all from his bullpen. Just having one of those years.

Rolen has been the popular choice mid-season for MVP, because of those gaudy RBI numbers. MVP voters love the idiotic RBI. Pujols has had a terrific year, although "off" his batting average numbers. He's leading the league in runs scored, but probably won't get credit for that. Basically at this point I think the MVP will come down to whichever Cardinal has the hotest final two weeks of the season.

posted by The Crank 10:45 AM

Sunday, July 18, 2004

Bobbleheads and BALCO
The wife was out of town this weekend, so on Sunday I caught the White Sox and the A's. I didn't know that the giveaway was going to be a Vida Blue bobblehead, but as I was one of the first 15k, I now have one for the office.

I was hanging out by the White Sox dugout before the game. I looked across the diamond and saw Vida sitting on the A's bench. He was there to throw out the first pitch. That made my day.

Vida is one of the few ballplayers who gets love on both sides of the bay. A's fans see him as part of the great Finley teams of the early 70s, and for Giants fans he was a mainstay on a few teams that didn't have many other shining stars. When Vida got married in 1989, it was pre-game event at Candlestick Park.

I had a revelation today. For many people, the BALCO steroids issue is a huge deal. For me, it's a witch hunt. Sure, if you catch people doing steroids, take the proper steps to get them clean, but the whole rumor and trial-by-sportstalk-radio bit leaves a bad taste in my mouth. What I realized is that one of my baseball heros as a child was Vida Blue. I grew up understanding that one of my favorites had some major off-the-field flaws. For others, baseball is a bastion of purity, and anything that might threaten that must be attacked directly and with prejudice.

I think that people who grew up post-Watergate have different views and expectations of politicians, and I expect that to be even moreso for people who are growing up post-Clinton.

posted by David 10:04 PM

Which Is Better, Part II

I suppose I have a little unfinished business from my weekend of baseball last week. I did catch the Twins' last game before the break, which had the all-mascot game before the main attraction, featuring Johan Santana for the Twins against Jason Johnson for the Tigers.

The pre-game festivities are another example of the question of which gimmick is better, a gimmicky game or a gimmicky home run contest. I think in the case when mascots are involved, I'll take the home run contest. Not that the game was without its merits, but it was pretty much pure camp. I guess that's more or less guaranteed when you've got a bunch of people dressed up as various fowl, aquatic lifeforms, checkbooks, pizza slices, etc.

My favorites were The Spam Turkey, and a pair of Air Force "mascots" named Flight Suit Fanny and Airman Andy. I trust that The Spam Turkey needs no further explanation. The AF mascots were basically like the auto-pilot in the movie Airplane but with oversized bobbleheads attached at the top of the costumes. More on Airman Andy in a bit. The local minor league teams, the St. Paul Saints and StP River Bats, were also represented. Madonna, the Saints' mascot, looked like a giant pink Care Bear from my Upper Club seats.

The mascots were split into teams headed by T.C. and Thor, the mascot for the local soccer team, the Minnesota Thunder. Each side batted once through the order, and hit from a batting tee. This would ultimately leave pride of place for T.C., who would be hitting last for the home team. T.C. actually caught a ball hit to him and doubled someone off first, the only two outs recorded in the entire affair. Batting in the final position of the visitor's lineup, Thor, as befitting his soccer mascot status, kicks the ball from the ground for an infield single, stranding himself and a couple of other runners.

By the time T.C. comes up, the home team is already ahead, but they're going to let him hit anyways. Airman Andy stands on first. The costume, which is inflated, restricts the motion of the legs, so Airman Andy has a waddling run. T.C. uncorks a bomb off of the tee. Andy waddles his way to third and then stops. No one has retrieved the ball at this point. T.C. runs up to third and tells Andy to run home. By this time the ball starts making its way toward the infield.

Andy starts his waddle home, and T.C. gives him some encouragement with some taps on the shoulder. Anyone who remembers the Randall Simon incident in Milwaukee last year can see what's coming down Hennepin Ave. Eventually overexuberance by T.C. topples Andy a few feet from home. It takes some fairly heroic efforts in the bubble suit for Andy to crawl across home just in front of T.C. At first I thought it was a strategic error to put the guy in the inflated suit in front of T.C., but after a few seconds' thought I concluded it was probably planned that way. So ends the fourth annual Mascot All-Star Game.

Come On, Quit Messing Around!

Johan Santana had some struggles out of the box. It took him a couple of innings to get a handle on his change. There was a guy sitting near to me who pleaded with Santana to quit messing around and just throw the ball with every change that missed. I have news for that fellow -- Santana needs to be able to throw his change for a strike to pitch at the dominant level he's exhibited in his past eight starts, and he can't do that if he doesn't throw it in the early innings. Those past eight starts have seen him go 6-2 with a 1.43 ERA, with 84 K's, 26 H, and 12 BB in 63 IP. The two L's were 2-1 vs. Chicago and 2-0 in the game I'm telling you about now.

Santana has a shaky second, giving up a walk and a double to start the inning. A 7-5-2 pegs the runner at home on the double, with the hitter moving to third on the throw home. Then a 5-2 erases that guy. Santana is almost out of the inning, when Eric Munson of broken-bat homerun fame tattoos one over the big baggy for a 2-0 lead. Though it doesn't seem like it at the time, that's the ball game.

It was too bad for Santana, as by the third he has command of all three of his pitches. It took him 39 pitches to get through the first two innings. By the fourth his pitch count is 65. By the end of the day, Santana throws 103 pitches in eight innings, striking out 11, and still having given up only the two second-inning hits. The Tigers are pretty much throttled after the second.

But the Twins are equally ineffectual. Torii Hunter and Corey Koskie led off the bottom of the second with hits, but Matthew LeCroy serves up a GIDP and Johnson gets out of the inning. There are some hard-hit balls directly to outfielders, but the Twins don't get anything going again until Cristian Guzman gets a Baltimore Chop-double to put runners on second and third with two outs in the 8th. No dice on a game-tying hit, however.

Santana is starting to emerge as a Cy Young darkhorse. He's still a ways behind Mark Mulder, but starting to gain. He'll need to turn out some pretty goofy numbers the rest of the way to get serious consideration, though. He's 8-6 with a 3.55 ERA (#6 in the AL), and in addition to leading the AL in K's, he's tops in the league amongst starters with a .212 BAA and a WHIP of 1.04. The record will hold him back unless he uncorks a stretch run along the lines of Mark Prior's stretch run of a year ago. He's got 14, maybe 15 starts left, so something crazy like 12-1 would get Santana to 20 wins, which is doubtful but not inconceivable if he can keep up the way he's been going in his last eight starts.

The other thing to consider is that Santana has never thrown more than about 170 innings in a season. He's at 131.2 right now, and a crazy stretch run to an improbable CYA would probably push Santana into the 230 IP range. That's a pretty big jump. I'm looking for Santana to maintain something close to the level he's been at recently through the remainder of July and August, but I'm expecting fatigue to set in in September, barring some sort of mini-break of the sort Prior had last year, and that of course would cut into Santana's starts.

Of course, given that Santana has only given up 2 hits and 1 hit in his last two starts (both 8 innings of work), it's not that much of a stretch to say that he's got no-hitter stuff. I look for Santana to take a no-hitter into the seventh or later in one of his upcoming starts, one in which he has command of his change coming out of the bullpen. An actual no-no (as opposed to a near-miss) would jump-start his CYA candidacy.

posted by Tom Renbarger 2:02 PM