Friday, July 16, 2004
Investigating the Walk and Run AccidentBonds got a hit without scoring yesterday, bringing his Runs to Hits numbers to 71 and 70.
I confess to having been as fascinated as David about Bonds' bizarre walk totals, OBP, and OPS this year, and equally amazed at how widely OPS is now bandied about the mainstream media, and how misunderstood it is as a short-hand.
Some sources have calculated an OBP point is anywhere from 1.5 to 3 times as valuable as a SLG percentage point. In Moneyball, Paul DePodesta indicates to the author a belief through analysis that it's closer to 3 or more, which is why the Oakland A's draft on OBP, not on OPS. Barry's OBP this year is reaching truly stratospheric proportions, over .600, and his slugging percentage, while impressive, is completely in line with his last half dozen years. Slugging percentage, of course, is a big lie compared to OBP for one simple reason: the theoretical maximum of OBP is 1.000, while the theoretical maximum of SLG is 4.000. A triple isn't worth exactly three times a single, a homer isn't worth exactly twice a double, yet that's what slugging percentage tells you.
What I suspect the managers who are walking Barry so much are engaged in is a groupthink that barely understands SLG and OPS and does so in the context of a bunch of old managerial saws about not letting the best guy beat you. They pitch around him so as to avoid giving him the opportunity to slug them in. But Barry's slugging percentage hasn't gotten any better.
I did a little exercise today which I admit is flawed both statistically and sabrmetrically, but which I think illustrates two points. One is, Barry is not having an exceptional season despite what the OPS indicates. The second is how utterly pointless the intentional walk is to him in the aggregate, and the walk in general. Barry can be gotten out, when pitched to, at the same rate he could be gotten out for a decade.
I have two very crude measures which sort of ape the inaccuracies of OPS but which are suggestive. I looked at Barry's total trips to any single base, excluding error and HBP, not bothering to control for at-bats, etc. (which is what percentages do). In other words, we just add his walks to his total bases. We're measuring the number of times Barry traveled 90 feet.
For a brief period, there was the concept of "Run Production", which was Runs plus RBI. Both stats are heavily line-up dependent, of course, RBI far more than Runs (especially since you can collect more than one RBI per plate appearance). Adding them together as a measure of a player is also statistically flawed because when you homer, you get to count yourself twice even though your team scores only one run. RBI is of course the most flawed statistic of the offensive portfolio this side of batting average, but I use it as a point to illustrate the number of runs-generated by Bonds between him scoring himself and knocking them in.
Barry Bonds' Walks, Total Bases, Runs, RBI through 2004 (2004 numbers projected based on current rate)
Year BB TB BB+TB R RBI R+RBI OPS 1986 65 172 237 72 48 120 746 1987 54 271 325 99 59 158 821 1988 72 264 336 97 58 155 859 1989 93 247 340 96 58 154 777 1990 93 293 386 104 114 218 971 1991 107 262 369 95 116 211 924 1992 127 295 422 109 103 212 1080 1993 126 365 491 129 123 252 1135 1994 74 253 327 89 81 170 1073 1995 120 292 412 109 104 213 1008 1996 151 318 469 122 129 251 1076 1997 145 311 456 123 101 224 1031 1998 130 336 466 120 122 242 1047 1999 73 219 292 91 83 174 1006 2000 117 330 447 129 106 235 1128 2001 177 411 588 129 137 266 1378 2002 198 322 520 117 110 227 1381 2003 148 292 440 111 90 201 1278 2004 245 276 521 129 88 217 1414 Ignoring strike and injury years, Bonds' OPS has been in a huge spike since 2000, leading up to this year's nearly unbelievable number. Not 2001, his 73-HR year. It was outstanding, but a notch lower, and very steady, from 1992 through 1999, when you might say his career level was established.
Now look over at our two specious categories, walks plus total bases and runs plus RBI. Walks plus total bases sees an increase during the last four years, accounted for nearly entirely by walks. The runs plus RBI is pretty flat and constant, and in fact shows the minor downturn you'd expect towards the end of a career for production numbers, albeit extremely good numbers.
As I said, this is all very crude, but basically Bonds is scoring himself and others directly in proportions no greater than before. The OBP revolution, though, indicates that that vastly-increased OBP -- caused by this suicidal intentional walk fad -- is producing far more runs in the overall Giants' lineup. The sum is more than the parts here. I have continued to seek answers as to why the extremely mundane Giants' club has had such success in recent years, particularly this one where no other offensive player is doing that well and where the pitching staff after Jason Schmidt is a disaster area. It's not like Brian Sabean has assembled an A's-style lineup of OBP kings. The team is full of free swingers.
The answer is: opposing managers keep walking Bonds intentionally even though the impact of letting him try for extra base hits hasn't changed one bit.
That 73-HR year was a spike in Barry's power swing. Given his long history of an outstanding batting eye, I don't find it that remarkable in some ways he had one year where he took his personal career season high from 46 to 73. Circumstances of the season and its rhythym are quirky. What's come since, I'm beginning to believe, is not ever-better years from Bonds, but ever-stupider ways of pitching to him, which is to say, not pitching at all. Opposing managers saw one and only one impact player in the Giants' lineup, that 73-homer season, and collectively shrank into their shells.
I'm taking nothing away from Bonds' position as the premiere hitter of our era, perhaps of all-time. Far from it. They should pitch to him; my theory is that what's changed in the last few years is the dimly-understood principles of OBP were over-represented by OPS, which in its way minimizes the impact of OBP, in the minds of GMs and managers unclear on the concept. Their mistaken beliefs were reinforced by long-held baseball myths about 'not letting the best man beat you', the value of the intentional walk, the anecdotal memory of when a rally was killed right after Bonds was walked, etc.
Bonds is not having an exceptional year: he's having a typical excellent year, with some juice off due to age, and is being handed a truly exceptional year by opposing managers and pitchers.
posted by The Crank 2:56 PM
Thursday, July 15, 2004
Mega-Pujols and the MVP
I think that everyone can agree that Albert Pujols had an amazing season in 2003. He had the MVP buzz for most of the year and made a run at the triple crown.
Still, he finished shy of Barry Bonds for the NL MVP. But suppose a mysterious package from BALCO showed up on Pujols' doorstep. Just suppose he ate the magic jellybeans that were inside...
Well, Albert had an annoying 65 strikeouts last year. Let's turn 17 of them into home runs. That would give Albert an even 60 on the year. In addition, between the added fear in the hearts of pitchers, and the magic jelly beans' amazing ability to improve strikezone judgement, let's just turn 25 of those remaining strikeouts into walks.
By turning 65 strikeouts into 17 homers, 25 walks and 23 strikeouts, this would have given Albert Pujols a 60 homer season. And that would have been the icing on the cake, the eye-popping number would have been his .405 batting average! His 60 homers, 400 batting average and 100+ walks would be great, translated into OPS that would be a .816 slugging season and an even .500 on-base season. That totals for 1.316.
But he wouldn't even be his team's MVP. The nicest thing you can say about Pujols' defense is that he does in fact own a glove. Meanwhile, his teammate, Scott Rolen, is one of the best defenders in the league, at an important position. In addition, he had a nice solid season with the bat – 286/382/528, to total to .910.
From what we are hearing from Cardinals fans these days, Scott Rolen's glove is worth more than .400 points in OPS. So last year Mega-Pujols' 60-dinger .400 average campaign would not have made him the most valuable Cardinal.
Who knew?
posted by David 10:08 PM
Oww, My Achilles' Tendon!
That charge to the NL Central title for the Cubs just took another hit, as Mark Prior left the game in the second inning after tweaking something in his leg. If it's an aggravation of the Achilles injury, who knows how long it might keep him out. Glendon Rusch better dust off his Superman cape.
The Cubs will no doubt remain in the Wild Card hunt, but I wonder if this development will make the Cubs a little more active in the trade market. I guess it's a little early to speculate, with the Cubs hitting in the bottom of the 2nd, but any sort of "weeks on the shelf" prognosis for Prior could push the Cubs in that direction. Stay tuned.
Update
Apparently it was elbow soreness, and not the Achilles, that knock Prior out of the game. I'm not sure whether this is good or bad news.
posted by Tom Renbarger 7:20 PM
Wednesday, July 14, 2004
Bob Feller, Patriot
Looks like Bob Feller wasn't too happy with Ali being honored at the All Star Game. This is in character. One year back in the 1990s I went to one of SABR's national conventions. I believe it was the one in Kansas City. I was hanging out in the hotel lobby waiting for some friends when Feller strolled up to me, took my program out of my hand, signed it, and declared "Son, don't go voting for any draft-dodgers." Then he shook my hand and wandered off. It was all very strange.
posted by David 11:21 PM
A DAY FOR REFLECTION
Major League Baseball's day after the All Star Game, when MLB goes dark, affords its teams and its fans to take a collective deep breath, and spots us some time to reflect on the season and what we have thus far witnessed. No other professional sport, which has an All Star break, attaches to it as much meaning as does Major League Baseball's, as it is not just a mark of demarcation for half of the season's completion, but a celebratory time as well. It is essentially a second chance Opening Day. Unlike other sports, where baseball teams play nearly everyday for a period of six months, it requires that players stop dead in their tracks, and for those on hot streaks it can end great momentum for a team or a player's individual stats, adding to the drama.
On the other hand, given the close races of many teams in all of its divisions it can be a new awakening or renewed hope for teams which were supposed to be out of it by now but are still in the fray in competing for the post season. There will be new energy joining the spectators this season's half as well, as the less than avid fan starts paying attention to baseball's stakes, perhaps gaining their interest from watching the All Star Game. In the NBA, NHL, and NFL, their All Star games are usually viewed by very few, whereas Major League Baseball relies on its game to give a grand send off for its second half. It's purpose is to renew excitement again for its regular fans and to give a shot in the arm to newcomers of the game.
Today is also a day to turn off the "noise" surrounding baseball such as trade rumors, steroid accusations, player angst, team infighting, displeasure with umpires and inequities in voting for All Stars (or getting apoplectic about that stupid cartoon Fox TV called Scooter, to explain pitching to viewers which is even juvenile for the average six year old). However, even though it has been an above average season this year in terms of playing quality and competition, there are still many issues which need to be addressed by the Commissioner' Office and/or the Players Association by year's end. These questions need to be answered for MLB to continue building its fan base again, which has been growing steadily since last year's post season contests, after being in a lull for a few years.
On Commissioner Bud Selig's menu of items to address is not only the relocation of the Montreal Expos, but its sale to a viable buyer, to get it off the books of the collective teams of MLB which continue to own the club and also gives the appearance of a conflict of interest. There is no incentive in the meantime for the proper management of the Expos until it becomes an entity on its own. Secondly, as he promised in April, Mr. Selig needs to go back to the Players Association to come up with an agreement as regards the illegal substance testing procedures and administration. Both parties verbally agreed to revisit the provisions as they presently read in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, and to perhaps let the World Doping Agency preside over players' future drug testing instead of MLB handling its outsourcing. Additionally, the future of allowing the winning team of the All Star Game decide home field advantage in the World Series needs to be ratified by the Players Association for its renewal. The Commissioner believes it will be, but I'm not so sure.
But, for one day, let's lay off the peanut and cracker jacks, so like the players, those of us who love and follow baseball can come back refreshed, ready to root our tails off for our teams as they come down the stretch. This is the best part of the season and our chance as fans to relish what's left to come. As Yogi said, "It's deja vu all over again!"
posted by Diane M. Grassi 5:35 PM
Tuesday, July 13, 2004
Which Is Better, The Derby, or The Game?
This was a theme that was explored either on Around the Horn or PTI, I think it was Around the Horn (no longer with Max Kellerman). The panelists for the most part were divided along age lines, the late-30ish guys voting for the Derby, and the crusty 60-something guy going for the game.
At first I went with the old guy. The Derby is fun, but ultimately a gimmick. Plus, it doesn't last that long, or at least when you first think of it the Home Run Derby shouldn't seem to have to take that long to play out. Of course, when all was said and done last night, the event lasted nearly three hours.
And a very entertaining three hours it was, full of titanic blasts and some competitive surprises as well. Favorite Sammy Sosa got bounced in the first round, and hometown hero Lance Berkman switched around and took his cuts from the right side, nominally his weaker side, to take advantage of the Crawford boxes. This strategy propelled Berkman to an appearance in the finals of the Derby.
Then there was Miguel Tejada. In these days of the Cult of OPS, Tejada can sometimes be underestimated. I know I wasn't sold on him as a top-of-the-line free agent during the past offseason, but he's doing what the O's thought he would do, knocking in a ton or runs. Fitting that he would slip under the radar to take the crown, and set the single-round record.
The game has a lot to live up to, and I'm not sure it will. Even though we're at This Time It Counts II, the players and managers treat it as an exhibition, low-intensity and as many get in the game as feasible. Maybe the Home Run Derby should decide home field advantage for the World Series.
posted by Tom Renbarger 5:15 PM
BALCO Thoughts
I don't keep close tabs on Olympic Track & Field, but according to this ESPN article, the athletes accused of BALCO funny stuff are all coming up shy. Once they are off the juice, they come back to Earth. Why should baseball fans care about this result?
Well, let's look at the slugging prowess of BALCO posterboy Barry Bonds. Here are his slugging averages over the past few years:
1998 .609
1999 .617
2000 .688
2001 .863
2002 .799
2003 .749
2004 .794
Prior to 1998, he more or less bounced a little above or a little below .600. The start of his big upturn took place in 2000; if you believe that Barry is steroid-powered, then you have to realize that this pre-dates his BALCO involvement. So either he was getting his steroids from some other source or he jumped from ~.600 to close to .700 on his own.
In the winter of 2003 BALCO was shut down. MLB also instituted manditory steroids testing. And yet Barry's slugging percentage is still right up there. It's better than last year, and about even with 2002. And yet all of the BALCO track athletes have seen their performances crash from the sky. Of course, this might just mean that Barry is getting his steroids from a new source, or it might mean that steroids weren't the cause of his success in the first place.
posted by David 10:54 AM
Monday, July 12, 2004
Corporate Makeovers
Tim Kurkjian did a piece for Baseball Tonight on the relationship between the city of Houston and baseball, which despite paying some attention to the earlier relationships between the city's power brokers and the ball club -- Judge Roy Hofheinz, Lyndon Johnson, the National Aeronautic and Space Administration, the Johnson Space Center, the Astrodome -- neglected to even mention that the current ballpark was christend Enron Field. Fast forward thirty years and we have the names Ken Lay, George Bush, the Texas Rangers, George Bush, the Houston Astros, and Enron prominently in the news. (In the latter day case, the use of the term "power broker" should be taken somewhat more literally. Since I pay my electric bill in California, at least I do.) There's a certain 1984ish effect from failing to note a rather extreme example of the intersections between the life of a town and the cozy management/ownership/government relationship. Perhaps it was just an oversight by Kurkjian; other ESPN stories at least mentioned the name now and again.
Jon Miller, the outstanding broadcaster for the San Francisco Giants and KNBR, got into a minor amount of hot water for not using the name 'SBC Park' to refer to the Giants' home venue, stating his son wouldn't refer to it by anything but its proper name, Pac Bell. There's a nice little back and forth on this on the blog Baseball Think Factory'. (Although I note that somewhat hiliariously, this site has Ads by Google, which have produced an ad for SBC Pacific Bell Phones on this discussion page.) While it's true that "Pacific Bell" wasn't exactly a name of longstanding, the nickname 'Pac Bell' ("Pac Belle") had a nice quality to it, and when you bond with a place, you bond with its name. The 'Stick, of course, was named 3Com field during its final years, after the networking vendor. I am given to wondering what kind of collective memory we're going to have about the current wave of corporate-named parks.
The wave of corporate naming is not, by any means, new. Back in the day when the ball club was identified strongly with the owner, who was in turn usually the owner and often the builder of the park, it was common to name the park after the owner. Comiskey Park (I and briefly II), Wrigley Field (both of them), Shibe Park (aka Connie Mack Stadium) (and the Baker Bowl), Briggs Stadium (aka Navin Field), Ebbets Field, Crosley Field, Sick's Stadium, Griffith Park, all named for an owner. And of course we have Turner Field and Jacobs Field now, the former somewhat ironically built by the public as part of the 1996 Olympics, and Busch Stadium, ambiguously named for both brewery and owner (earlier Busch Field incarnations, aka Sportsman's Park, were more clearly named for the man). Kauffman Stadium, like Turner Field and Jacobs Field, was named to honor a former owner ex post facto.
What's changed is the switch to the corporate governance over the personally-owned fiefdom.And the primary, usually exclusive, business of these owners with the eponymous stadia was baseball, not something else. Here's a quick rundown of the businesses corporate ballpark sponsors are (or were) in ("+" indicates name is no longer in use).
Power and Energy (once upon a time)
+Cinergy Field
+Edison Field at Anaheim (now thankfully renamed Anaheim Stadium -- but why not Autry Field?)
+Enron Field, sort of, once upon a time
Amusements/Entertainment
Great American Ballpark
Banks/Financial Services
Bank One Ballpark (soon to be renamed due to a corporate merger)
Comerica Park
Citizens Bank Park
PNC Park
Safeco Field (insurance and annuities/securities)
Ameriquest Mortgage Company (despite a pledge made to the city of Arlington when it was built that it would be forever named after the city)
Beer
Coors Field
Miller Park
Busch Stadium
Other Food Products (well, OK, Orange Juice)
Minute Maid Park
Tropicana Dome
Clothing
ProPlayer Field
Telecommunications
SBC
+Pacific Bell
US Cellular Field
Network Associates Coliseum
+3Com Stadium
Pet Food and Supplies
Petco Park
Not Named After Corporations
Oriole Park at Camden Yarks
Anaheim Stadium (now)
Fenway Park
Dodger Stadium
Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome (named for the former Vice President and long-time Minnesota Senator; the putative new ballpark will have a corporate name -- Target Center II??)
Olympic Stadium (not for want of looking for a sponsor; Seagram's was once rumoured to be ready to sign on the dotted line, but the municipal government balked)
Jacobs Field (although the rights to name it thus were purchased by the surviving Jacobs brother to honor the deceased one)
Shea Stadium (local civic leader)
SkyDome
Wrigley Field*
Yankee Stadium
* Wrigley was, of course, named for both the chewing gum and the magnate of the same name who purchased the field from the defunct Federal League Chicago Whales franchise in 1915.
Well, back to watching Barry whack 'em out of Minute Maid Park.
posted by The Crank 4:53 PM
Rolen and OPS
The buzz this year is Scott Rolen for NL MVP. It's in the media, and in the minds of the fans. Just take a look at this ESPN poll. Now Rolen is having a great year, and you can't argue with the success of the Cardinals, but then there's Barry.
OPS has moved into the mainstream, and is accepted as a good measure of performance. What do these numbers tell us? Well, at the All Star Break Barry is sitting at a cool 1.421. That's the highest that's ever been recorded. Nobody not named Ruth or Bonds has ever cleared 1.300. In fact, throw in Ted Williams and you can drop the bar to 1.250.
So how's Rolen doing? Well, he's at 1.017, good for #6 in all of baseball. The gap between Bonds and Rolen is .404. Take 1.017 and subtract out .404 and you get .613. So Bonds to Rolen is as Rolen is to...
Well, Tike Redman of the Pittsburgh Pirates who is putting up a 251/275/338 year. Tike Redman is pretty bad. In fact, the only players in baseball who are on pace to qualify for the batting title who have a lower OPS are Orlando Cabrera, Mark DeRosa, Brad Ausmus and Neifi Perez. In other words, the gap between Bonds and Rolen in OPS is equal to the gap between Rolen and the fifth worst regular in all of baseball.
Part of this is that people just expect Bonds to be Bonds. If anyone else was putting up a 600+/800- season, there wouldn't be any questions here. But we've just come to expect it these days...
posted by David 2:09 AM
Sunday, July 11, 2004
Entry for the Office Home Run Derby Pool
If you want a pick for the Home Run Derby tomorrow, take Sammy Sosa. He's the only righty in the field: Jim Thome, Barry Bonds, Lance Berkman, Hank Blalock, David Ortiz, Rafael Palmeiro, and Jason Giambi all swing the lumber from the left side.
Dimensions at Enron/Minute Maid Field ("Where the Juice Flows Freely No Matter What Name is on the Wall"): 315L, 362LC, 435C, 373RC, 326R.
posted by The Crank 10:17 PM
The Intentional Barry Bonds
Last night Barry Bonds drew three more intentional walks. That pushed him to 71, which establishes a new single season record. The All Star game hasn't been played yet folks.
He projects to 131 intentional walks.
Some thoughts about 131 intentional walks...
Looking at the top walk seasons of all time, this would rank #53.
Willie Mays topped out with 112 walks in 1971.
Last year, the person with the most walks not named Bonds was Giambi at 129.
McCovey's record was 45, this almost triples it.
131 IBB would rank #49 on the career chart.
131 IBB would give Barry 615 on the career chart, more than twice Hank Aaron who is #2.
Yikes.
posted by David 11:28 AM
