TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Saturday, May 22, 2004

Bobby Thigpen Beware?

Since Scott Podsednik has been scuffling a bit lately, I'm going to turn my attention to another early season anomaly, namely, Danny Graves's 20th save.

What's equally amazing is that Graves has blown four saves as well. That means in the Reds' first 42 games, Graves has had 24 save opportunities (in 25 appearances). He should have at least 22 saves by the end of the month, and maybe as many as 25.

Can he keep it up? From 1999-2002, Graves had 75, 66, 66, and 68 appearances. Right now he's on pace for 96 appearances, but that won't happen. He could get 75-80 appearances, though. For reference, Thigpen saved 57 in 77 appearances in 1990, for a White Sox team that went 94-68.

So he can make the appearances necessary. Will his teammates give him the opportunities he needs to turn the trick? Right now the Reds are 24-18, in a three-way tie for first in the NL Central. But the Reds have actually been outscored 197-206 in their first 42 games. They "should" be basically a .500 team the rest of the way, and that's assuming their frontline players remain healthy.

If two of Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, and Ken Griffey Jr. can stay healthy to man the middle of the lineup with Sean Casey, and Barry Larkin can keep up his mini-rejuvenation in his last year, the Reds should be good for another 55-60 wins. I'll let the readers judge for themselves how likely this will be. If the Reds suffer injuries to either their sluggers or their already thin rotation, they might struggle to win 70 by season's end. Graves won't save 58 in that case.

Am I being too hard on the Reds? After all, they've kept up with the Astros and Cubs for 42 games, so why not for another 120? As I mentioned, the Reds have actually been outscored 197-206 in their 42 games. By contrast, Houston has scored 233 and given up 172 runs, and the Cubs have a 206-160 edge against their opponents. If similar rates are maintained, that's going to sort itself out in the long run, and it's not even factoring in the Cubs' temporary injuries (they should get Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Kent Mercker, Ryan Dempster and Sammy Sosa off the DL in the next few weeks) or the fact that some of the Reds' main guys are injury prone in their own right. As interesting as it would be for Graves to put up 58+ saves, I just don't see it.

posted by Tom Renbarger 10:38 PM

Friday, May 21, 2004

Doug Pappas passed while on vacationion at Big Bend National Park in Texas. For those who don't know, Doug was the long time chair of SABR's Business of Baseball research committee. More or less any question about payroll, the CBA, stadium funding or how dollars were connected to baseball in any way could be answered by him. I'd met him a couple of times, he was a good guy. He'll be missed.

He was one of those people, who when he passes, one of the first things you realize is that you are saddened not only because a good human being died, but because he was the person in his field whose book would have been the standard, and now that book will never be written.

posted by David 9:16 PM

Tuesday, May 18, 2004

27 up, 27 down

First off, before giving my thoughts about Johnson's game, I'd like to thank the people at ESPN for alerting their viewers of Johnson then-work-in-progress at halftime of tonight's Pacers-Heat game. I was probably one of literally millions who switched back and forth between the NBA and MLB to catch Johnson's last three innings of work. Nice job, fellas.

And what work it was. Johnson's perfect game was not remotely threatened in those last three innings. I may be a little off in these details, but I seem to recall that there was one lazy fly ball, three grounders to second that were dramatic only because they happened in the last three innings of a perfect game bid, and five strikeouts. A heady juxtaposition of the absolutely ordinary and absolute dominance, Johnson's 7th, 8th, and 9th were.

If anything, the wire report is understating Johnson's late-inning mastery. It wasn't just a 98-mph fastball that struck out Eddie Perez for the game's final out, it was a belly-high 98-mph fastball that started on the outside corner and tailed three inches away from the plate. Totally unhittable. Out number 26 displayed Johnson's maturation as a pitcher, as opposed to the thrower he was in his early days, when he busted a leaning Nick Green with a 97-mph laser over the inside corner for a called third strike.

There's a phrase that comes to mind: "if I only knew then what I know now." What's so special about seeing guys like Johnson and Clemens and Bonds dominate at their ages is that they combine "Now" knowledge with "Then" ability, and it's truly a sight to behold when wisdom and ability come together in this manner.

posted by Tom Renbarger 10:10 PM

The Joy of Televised Baseball and Bringing Bonds Out of the Bay

To begin, I'd like to thank Ted Turner for bringing his beloved Atlanta Braves to the masses. Go ahead, scratch your heads. But through Turner's TBS Superstation, I was able to watch Randy Johnson's 9th inning of his first career perfect game at the young age of 40. Kudos, Big Unit.

However, at the same moments, I watched the Mets' most dramatic ninth inning of the year. Just as Cliff Floyd stepped up to the plate with men on first and third and two outs, I couldn't help but stay on Johnson's bashful "aw shucks" grin as his teammates mobbed him. And wouldn't you know it? I flip back to MSG to find the Mets mobbing Cliffy. Just missed it...but wouldn't you rather see a perfect game? Obviously, yes.

This moment of sheer joy at being able to watch the perfect game actually happened reminded me of the divine power of cable gods a few years back, as Mark McGwire chased history. When Big Mac broke Roger Maris' record in St. Louis against the Chicago Cubs, I suddenly remembered that my cable provider gave us WGN. One flip later, and there it is - Mark McGwire rounding the bases (missing first in the process) and the celebration beginning. To be able to say that I was actually watching all these amazing moments is pretty amazing.

Now, I've been thinking about The Crank's proposal to send Barry Bonds to Anaheim. Not a bad idea. However, I don't think the Angels have the money to spend on Barry's expensive contract (would the Giants pay it?) and I think the Halos' offense is still plenty potent. So here's where I'd like him to go (this one's a shocker): the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Yes, this breaks quite a few rules of thumb in the front office world of Major League Baseball. You don't trade your best player to another team in the division, ESPECIALLY your most hated rival. But look at it this way: Bonds stays on the West Coast. From a marketing point of view, he still visits Pac Bell often, putting butts in seats.

Why the Dodgers? Paul DePodesta is Moneyball Junior after his days with Billy Beane. What better way to employ that strategy than to add a guy with an OBP over .600? The Dodgers offense has surprised all of us this year, but as the Crank pointed out, putting him in between two other batters makes the three and five hitter a lot more valuable. Plus, like the Jeff DaVanon upgrade, we're looking at Bonds coming in for...Jason Grabowski. Ugh. All of a sudden, a reborn Adrian Beltre gets even better. Shawn Green becomes solid in the three spot. Milton Bradley? I suspect his numbers might improve too.

The point of this whole discussion is obviously that Bonds will directly effect the players around him. But if the Giants do decide to fold it for this year and see Bonds as their most tradeable asset, then he'll have the control over the dealing as a "10 and 5" guy. I think he'll want to stay on the West Coast.

Or The Boss will throw a lifetime contract at him so that Jeter can get out of his slump.

posted by Charles Curtis 6:53 PM

Monday, May 17, 2004

Taking Stock of Trading Bonds

I live in the Bay area media market (that's San Francisco Bay, not Massachussetts or Cape Cod), and despite my attempts to filter out talk radio from my life, many mewlings from Giants fans about the sorry state of the team this year have nevertheless managed to penetrate my consciousness.

The bleating generally follows the lines of: dang, we gotta get somebody to protect Barry. They'd pitch to Barry if we had (insert your favorite candidate here, from Jeff Kent to Alex Rodriguez). There's a little bit of 'too bad we got rid of Santiago and Aurilia and their veteran clubhouse leadership' and 'I wish Dusty were back', but as you might expect there's a lot of focus on the best hitter in baseball since Babe.

I suppose there's some basis in fact for this concern. Then again...after all, the Giants arguably won back to back division titles in 2002-03, and made it within five outs of a championship in '02, with a lineup that wasn't particularly distinguished but for Barry's commanding presence. Barry's big protection in '02 was Benito Santiago.

The reality of the Giants this year, and of Bonds' apparent struggle of will as to whether to go for Aaron's home run record, is that it's an aging lineup with very spotty pitching. Marquis Grissom is hitting up a storm this year, at age 37. Bonds, of course, turns 40 this year. The only regular who's less than 30 is 27-year old newcomer AJ Pierzynski, who has not been popular in the clubhouse nor with the fans. Pedro Feliz, formerly considered a prospect due to his power potential, gained a couple of years in the off-season in one of those visa-birth certificate readjustments. After that, everybody's a thirtysomething on the offense.

The "ace", Jason Schmidt, really only has one dominating season on the books, and came out of that with shoulder surgery. The rest of the staff are unremarkable journeymen: Kirk Reuter, Bret Tomko, Dustin Hermanson (plus the interesting, but hardly dominating, young Jerome Williams). With Robb Nen's career in twilight bordering on retirement due to injury, the bullpen also has its fair share of mediocre thirtysomethings. If you discount Williams and 28-year-old rookie Tyler Walker, there isn't an active Giant pitcher under the age of 31.

This is not a very solid group of veterans, say, like the 2001 Diamondbacks, who have all the elements to put it together in a spate of career years. The team's slow, slower to recover from injury and slump, and like all of us in that demographic group, unlikely to improve in any way even on our best days with respect to physical performance. It's actually quite remarkable when you look at the Giants' roster how over the hill the gang is, collectively, and their leader is turning 40 this year.

What I find painful about all this is not watching the Giants lose. They've had a great run over the last decade, and all but the most rabid fan would have to be happy having a club that's been in contention for such a long stretch. No, the pain is in watching Barry struggle through this.

You figure if Barry has any more goals in baseball, now that he's passed Willie on the all-time list in the uniform of the Giants, they're reduced to this:

(1) winning a world's championship, and

(2) passing Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, and establishing himself as clearly the greatest offensive player of all time (or at least of the modern era; Ruth is such a statistical outlier, adjusted for the competition of the era).

He got close to (1), but clearly it's not going to happen with this team. And he's going to need all the help in the world for (2), and that's not coming from either the lineup or the incessant, nearly infantile reliance on him to be the core of the offense.

Aaron had long had the World Series ring in 1973, and that year, when he hit 40 to get himself within one of Ruth, he had Davey Johnson and Darrell Johnson hitting 43 and 41 homers, respectively, and Dusty Baker hitting 20 to protect him in the lineup (if you believe in protection). I note from the archives that Johnson, at 30, was the senior member of the '73 Braves other than Aaron; the median lineup age was 27.

The Giants' problem, of course, is that in stretching what resources they had to get Barry competitive teams around him for all these years, is they've got to pay the piper. The farm system is not brimming with offensive prospects, and the pitching prospects that are left are just enough to project the team to respectability in another four or five years. The payroll is laden with these once-shiny thirtysomethings, and of course the debt burden of paying Barry himself, such that even if they did have the prospects to trade for some protection for Barry, they wouldn't be able to pay them.

There's a certain panic inherent in the way the Giants are marketing their games at now-SBC Park. Without the daily beat of a Bonds home run race, and without a credible pennant threat in baseball's weakest division of 2004, the walk-ups are declining. The Giants will still have great attendance this year, but the number of sell-outs is off, and since a lot of those tickets were bought before the season to begin with, I'm sure their marketing and sales people are projecting darker days ahead. With the Giants having a fixed cost of the debt burden on their park to pay every year, the payroll is being tightly controlled.

I wouldn't doubt that Barry's march to 756 wouldn't sell a few tickets. But the Giants seem to be in the very awkward position of relying on Barry doing that to sell seats, when the baseball logic is Barry won't be able to do that without a better lineup around him to give him opportunities to swing the bat -- and, what's probably more important, some sense of personal hope about the team around him. Bonds is more of a competitor than many give him credit for, and who knows how many of those homers in the past decade have been fueled by the sense he could propel the team around him forward to a victory? Without that hope, without protection, it will be exceedingly difficult for him to continue to bash them out,and for the Giants in turn to sell tickets on that basis.

I'd like to suggest some heresy for the Giants fan -- and the Barry Bonds fan -- and suggest that the club trade Bonds. Now.

Trading Bonds while he's still an extremely dangerous weapon -- and not, say, the seriously declining player of 41 Aaron was between 715 and 755 -- will get the Giants plenty of exchange in young players. But not if they wait, even a year, maybe not even a half a season.

Trading Bonds will save the Giants $15,000,000 - well, pro-rated, about $12 million, and about $42 million over the remaining years of his contract (necessary to get to 756 in a Giants uniform). That will cover a lot of empty seats, which could still fill back up if the Giants do something interesting with young players, which they must eventually do anyway unless Bonds plays until he's 100.

For Barry, he'd get that shot at a ring. Veterans of note from the recent era, from Dave Winfield to Roger Clemens, have skipped teams late in their careers to get that ring, so I don't think anybody's going to blame him.

He'd also, of course, get lineup protection on a better team, he'd have to get a better hitter's park by default (it doesn't get much harder than SBC/Pac Bell), and if he were on an AL team, he'd get a few more less-stressed ABs with a few days a week in the DH slot.

Bear in mind Henry Aaron hit homers 714-733 as a part-time outfielder, and 734-755 as a part-time DH.

And if Barry really cares about the Giants -- he can help the club for the next decade to come by ensuring his legacy is a thriving team, not a debt burden and empty stands.

I've even got a team picked out for Barry: the Anaheim Angels. Their superstar, Vlad Guerrero, is a man without any obvious ego problems and surely wouldn't mind playing in the shadow of Barry. And there's hardly a more offensively-oriented lineup around. Putting Barry into left field in place of Jeff DaVanon seems like a pretty major improvement, though. The Angels have a new and aggressive owner who seems like the kind of guy who'd be able to market Bonds to the O.C. crowds, and Bonds is the impact player who could put them over the top again even with mediocre pitching.

The Angels have made an investment in relatively young players, and are building a stronger fan base off the 2002 World Series championship. It's a strong enough core to carry Bonds through his 2006 date with destiny.

Can you imagine Barry batting fourth, between Guerrero and Guillen? Or maybe in front of Vlad? How many intentional walks would he get then?

For Barry's sake, for the Giants' sake, and for the sake of baseball, which could always use another greatest-ever debate, trade him. Now.

posted by The Crank 5:37 PM