TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Wednesday, May 12, 2004

At-Bat of the Year Nominee No. 2
Starting the bottom of the seventh inning in tonight's Dodgers-Cubs game, Matt Clement had thrown only 80 pitches. While on the bottom side of a 2-0 score, it was through no fault of Clement's -- the two Dodgers runs both scored on squibs. It's quite a pitcher's duel, with the resurgent Wilson Alvarez throwing goose eggs against Clement. So you know a pitcher's manager like Dusty Baker isn't going to take Clement out before his spot in the order comes up.

Clement is due up first in the top of the eighth, so with an 80-pitch count and with the bottom of the order up it seems exceedingly unlikely Dusty's going to pull him. Clement walks Jason Graboski to start the inning, but never fear, the never-dangerous Alex Cora comes up. Cora's got a career OBP of .304, while Clement has come into the game 5-1 with a 2.29 ERA and is throwing BBs.

The count goes to 2-2, and Clement and catcher Michael Barrett proceed to work Cora down and in. Cora fouls it off. Down and in again. Cora fouls it off. And again. And again. Always on the right side of the plate someplace, Cora fouls it off. And again and again and again. Visit to the mound by Barrett. And again and again and again, still only two balls, and Cora manages 13 fouls and a total of 17 pitches.

What I love about LA fans: they actually noticed (unlike White Sox fans for the Frank Thomas AB I reported on earlier this year), and started laughing and clapping at about the 11th pitch. They got louder and louder, and finally got up on their feet about the 16th pitch. Clement's longest entire inning thus far was only 16 pitches.

Cora, amazingly, homers on the 18th pitch, and the Dodgers go up 4-0.

Clement has run his pitch count up to 103, and shows the utter defeat of the number eight hitter beating him. Clement's yanked out of the game, Dusty has to use a pitcher in the seventh, Kyle Farnsworth, he'd rather use in the eighth, and the entire complexion of the game has been changed.

Vin Scully commented on the telecast it was one of the best at-bats he'd ever seen, and Vin's seen a lot of at-bats.

I haven't seen an at-bat like this from a scrappy middle infielder since Marty Barrett blew out his knee in 1989 on a 17-pitch AB. And on that one, Barrett ended up grounding out, not launching a two-run homer.

What a beautiful game.

posted by The Crank 9:24 PM

Tuesday, May 11, 2004

It's not news to anybody who was paying attention that baseball in this country dates back to well before the revolutionary war. The news of a 1791 reference to baseball is pretty cool, though. The fact that Jim Bouton and the fight to save Wahconah park may benefit is even cooler. We've been to Wahconah park -- one of my foul balls was caught there -- and enjoyed the sunset breaks and the incredibly close-to-the-action seats and the illusion of being transported back about 90 years, and if there's any sense in Pittsfield -- no reason to thing there is, but we can hope -- this document may wake up the oligarchy running the town described in the book Foul Ball and create a destination location for true fans.

But what I found really interesting was that the ordinance banning baseball near the new meeting house specified a specific distance -- 80 yards. We may easily surmise then that about 240 feet was the longest anybody could hit a ball under the Massachussetts game of the day. And somebody will eventually get around to figuring out where the ballfield was before the ordinance was passed, since presumably before the ordinance the field was within 80 yards of the site of the meetinghouse described in the ordinance.

This gives us a location of a field from 1791 and earlier, and it tells us how far the ball could be hit.

posted by The Crank 10:37 PM

Miller Park Funny Money
While looking over the published findings of the Milwaukee Brewers audits, one thing caught my eye - the Brewers are claiming $4.7M in depreciation on Miller Park. Somehow the Brewers are given credit for owning 29.1% of Miller Park, and as a result can write this off on their taxes.

The first question is "how do the Brewers get a roughly 30% stake in Miller Park?" Breakdown the numbers. Miller Park cost about $425M. Of this, the Brewers were supposed to pay $90M. They were given the naming rights, which they passed on to Miller for $41M. The Brewers took out a $36M loan from the governmental organization that built the ballpark. According to the agreement, the government was also going to give the Brewers $3.85M a year for stadium repairs. A later agreement reduced this payment in exchange for the elimination of the $36M loan. This means that the Brewers paid $13M on a $425M stadium. If you own a nice $750K house, then you would get the Brewers' deal if you paid $22K and other interests picked up the rest.

Now let's get to the depreciation. The quick and dirty is that the Brewers are allowed to take a $4.7M loss on paper every year due to "wear and tear" on their asset, Miller Park. The Wisconsin tax rate for corporations is 7.9%. The federal rate bounces around, but it is roughly 35%. So the sum of the state and federal tax rates is about 43%. Allowing the Brewers to subtract $4.7M each year amounts to a $2M savings in taxes. Ignoring all the other effects of owning a new stadium, on depreciation alone the Brewers will get their $13M back 6.5 years! After that, it's gravy.

Bud Selig is going to continue to cry poor and complain about small markets. Meanwhile, he got the tax payers of Wisconsin to give him a shiny new stadium for free. And yes, in 2003 he got $24.7M in revenue sharing from the other teams in baseball. It makes me sick...

posted by David 11:48 AM

Monday, May 10, 2004

Untrammeled Speculation About Mark Prior

As I wrote yesterday, Mark Prior is scheduled to make a June 4 comeback. Prior threw 45 pitches in three simulated innings earlier today. This is the way his rehab schedule is shaping up:

May 1 - 15 pitches
May 5 - 30 pitches
May 10 - 45 pitches
May 15 - 60 pitches
May 20 - 75 pitches
May 25 - Rehab #1
May 30 - Rehab #2
June 4 - Start vs. Pirates

I have to wonder whether he will need both a 5-inning simulated game and two rehab starts. Let's take a look at the Cubs' schedule with projected starters.

May 11 @ LA - Wood
May 12 @ LA - Clement
May 13 @ LA - Zambrano
May 14 @ SD - Maddux
May 15 @ SD - Mitre
May 16 @ SD - Wood
May 17
May 18 vs. SF - Clement
May 19 vs. SF - Zambrano
May 20 vs. SF - Maddux
May 21 vs. STL - Mitre
May 22 vs. STL - Wood
May 23 vs. STL - Clement
May 24
May 25 @ HOU - Zambrano
May 26 @ HOU - Maddux
May 27
May 28 @ PIT - Mitre
May 29 @ PIT - Wood
May 30 @ PIT - Clement
May 31 vs. HOU - Zambrano
June 1 vs. HOU - Maddux
June 2 vs. HOU - Mitre
June 3
June 4 vs. PIT - PRIOR

This scenario has Sergio Mitre making another four starts, including starts against St. Louis and Houston. With those off days towards the end of May, I can see Mitre getting bounced from the rotation.

Also worth keeping in mind is that Prior was placed on the 60-day disabled list retroactive to March 26, so he'd be eligible for the active roster as early as May 26. This presents some intriguing opportunities with a slightly accelerated recovery schedule. For instance:

May 28 @ PIT - Wood
May 29 @ PIT - Clement
May 30 @ PIT - PRIOR
May 31 vs. HOU - Zambrano
June 1 vs. HOU - Maddux
June 2 vs. HOU - Wood
June 3
June 4 vs. PIT - Clement

This drops Mitre from the lineup two starts earlier and keeps Prior on his rehab schedule, albeit with one less rehab start. The question is, if he's ready to throw a second rehab start, do you want him and a possible 90-pitch limit to go against Class A hitters or the Pirates?

The thing to look for is the date of Prior's first rehab start. It's conceivable that he could be deemed ready on May 20 for a rehab start, in which case he could have two rehab starts by skipping the 5-inning simulation. Alternatively he could have the full simulation routine but have only one rehab start if he gains enough confidence in his breaking stuff in that amount of time.

Of course, starting June 4 the Cubs play 17 games in 17 days, so the Cubs could very well use the off days they get in May to keep their top four active starters rested for that stretch. Only time will tell, now.

posted by Tom Renbarger 9:54 PM

Sunday, May 09, 2004

Closing a Sad Chapter
The Cubs have released Ben Christensen. He was let go because he didn't bounce back from arm surgery, but he should have never been signed in the first place. Many might not remember Christensen, he was the pitcher with the "blinding fastball", in the literal sense. Back in 1999, as a pitcher for Wichita State, he became annoyed at the way Evansville's Anthony Molina was timing his pitches in the on-deck circle. Christensen's response was to bean Molina, while he was still standing in the on-deck circle. The result was severe damage to Molina's face, and a loss of some eyesight.

Sadly, like some of our soldiers in Iraq, Christensen took the Nazi defense - "Just following orders." His pitching coach had told him to brush back opponents, even if they weren't standing in the batter's box. He did not have the courage or wisdom to stand up to his coach. Molina paid for that.

The other day I was surprised to find that Wil Cordero was still playing baseball. He's been accused of domestic abuse by several women, and yet baseball teams still offer him a paycheck. Are people so devoted to their teams that the clubs can trot out these sorry excuses for human beings and expect us to still cheer for them? Can you pull for the wife-beater if he's a 30/30 player? Can you give your buddy a high-five when the rapist scores a touchdown? When I think about it, perhaps Molina isn't the only blind person in this situation...

posted by David 5:45 PM

Taking Care of a Few Loose Ends
I think I'll pass over the whole ads-on-the-bases episode lightly, other than to say, there is some joy in Mudville, now that Spidey has struck out.

I got some pretty immediate feedback on some of my observations/predictions that I made on Monday. On the whole, my record was much better for my NL comments than my AL comments.

On the AL side, Seth Greisinger started for the Twins yesterday against the A's, blowing my four man rotation theory out of the water. The Twins had 16- and 13-inning games in the days before Greisinger's start, so Greisinger's start might have been a way to give the bullpen a break. Not sure how well that worked given that he didn't make it out of the fifth. Additionally, Johan Santana got knocked around pretty good by the A's on Friday, moving his ERA back above 5. Eventually you'll see him in the 3's for his ERA, but it may take a while yet.

On the NL side, Moises Alou dropped 100 points from his slugging percentage, and Aramis Ramirez dropped 50 from his. To balance that, Sammy Sosa poked above the .600 mark for his SLG and Derek Lee had a 5-hit game. It's still a little early based on historical precedent for Lee to be in full swing, but you have to like the fact he's in the .270s on Mother's Day given his .220- to .230-ish history at the start of the season. Sammy has yet to go on one of those absolute tears where he can carry a team by himself for 10 days or two weeks. But he still has 10 2B and 8 HR through the Cubs' first 30 games, and the last time Sammy had more double than homers in a season was 1990. It's going to happen, it just takes Sammy a while to get his swing grooved for optimal power output.

I also have to note that after my inclusion of Dave Roberts in the steals watch, he pulled his hammy the next day and went on the 15-day DL on Wed. Bad news for the hopes of seeing Ron LeFlore-Omar Moreno II, but in perfect keeping with Roberts's history of being a touch fragile. In completely unrelated news, I think that Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Roger Clemens, Lance Berkman, Jeff Bagwell, and Adam Dunn are all primed to have huge seasons. I'm just saying, that's all.

I was also a little off in my projection for Mark Prior's return. My guess was Memorial Day or perhaps a bit sooner, but it sounds like the Cubs are targeting a June 4 return date for Prior. This could mean up to five more starts for Sergio Mitre before Prior's return, including today's start against the Rockies. I think I'll have a little more to say about this later today or tomorrow, but I'm in the middle of watching Sergio Mitre run out of gas here in the 4th.

posted by Tom Renbarger 1:16 PM