TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Friday, April 02, 2004

My turn I guess...

NL EAST Three teams worth looking at here. It's hard to remember back to when the Braves were not good, but ~90 games of JD Drew will not replace Shef, and that's not even thinking about Maddux. Braves fans never showed up for the first round of playoff games, and this year the Braves will make that even easier for them. Florida will be interesting. I think that even they were surprised by their success last year, and actually take my hat off to them for still being in a quasi-"building for the future" mode even though they've had the ultimate success. But I wonder what the old man will do to the young arms. The crystal ball says there will be some pitch count issues in Fishland. That leaves us with the Phillies, who have a new ballpark and Jim Thome. Even though they boo Santa, Christmas is coming early to the City of Brotherly Love.

NL Central Prior's arm is starting to worry me. Not big worries, but more like "did this franchise learn anything from their Kerry Wood adventure?" The team is deep enough that losing one guy, even a Prior or a Sammy, won't destroy them. On the other hand, the squad was powered by some amazing play by ex-Pirates down the stretch last season, and that's lightning that won't be caught in a bottle twice. The Astros may or may not catch the Cubs. For crying out loud, Clemens and Maddux are #3 men in these rotations, but whoever doesn't win the Central should take the wildcard. Fans in St. Louis will be able to enjoy the greatness that is Albert Pujols.

NL West It seems to be in fashion to say that the Padres will win the division. It's hard to say. I don't think it will be the D-Backs, the Big Unit isn't getting any younger, and I don't think that the addition of Big Sexy will be as big a boost as Arizona fans think it is. My big interest here is how fast ex-Stanford stud Carlos Quentin will rise through the system. The Dodgers will be an interesting case when they apply large-budget constraints to the Moneyball equation, but it won't happen overnight. Barry Bonds take his place as the all-time walks leader this season, but I don't see enough pop batting behind him to make that worthwhile. That and their best starter isn't bouncing back from surgery as fast as the Giants want. Dismissing the Rockies, that leaves us with the Padres. Of course, in any of these "they will win it because everyone else isn't up to snuff", it's all a crapshoot. Anybody but the Rockies...

AL East I'm thinking Yankees here. Pedro will spend enough time on the DL to make this so. A-Rod can hit .340 and bomb out 50, but if the Yankees don't win the East he'll be the one that is crucified.

AL Central See my comments about the NL West. They think you are a wuss if you don't go out on a limb at least once, so I'm picking the Chicago White Sox. In a season that will set back the acceptance of Sabermetrics for years, Ozzie Guillen's squad will be driven by "scrappy baseball". The team will finish last in OBP and OPS and yet will somehow finish in first. Frank Thomas will be benched in April for not being able to bunt into a hat 19 times out of 20 in practice, but will bounce back and lead the league in sacrifices. OK, if that doesn't happen, take the Twins.

AL West The Angels, A's or Mariners? I'm not sold on Colon, and Vlad's back is kind of iffy. The Moneyball tactics work well when you are the only bidder, but once a few GMs know to grab high-OPB players, there aren't any steals left. Sooner or later Billy Beane will have to spend money. Don't forget the Mariners though, they've still got a lot of fire power.

posted by David 7:26 AM

Thursday, April 01, 2004

I wanted to wait until April 1 before posting my predictions for the upcoming season, so that I can disavow all pretense of seriousness in my picks, should the need arise.

In the NL, probably the easiest pick is in the East. I'll go with the Phillies, but with a note that the Marlins will be a surprisingly dogged runnerup.

For the Central, I'll stick with the Cubs, but if the Mark Prior Achilles' tendon thing lingers, the Astros look good.

I'd not be too surprised if any team besides the Rockies won the West, but I'll pick the Giants nipping the D-backs in a close race.

Either the Astros or Cubs for the wild card, and since I went with the Cubs in their division, the pick is the Astros.

For the AL East, I'll go with the Red Sox, though to some extent the same thought processes are in play that make it a virtual physiological impossibility for me to pick Duke to win its Regional every year in my NCAA picks. Yankees grab the Wild Card

The Central will go to the Twins, the best of a fairly weak bunch.

The West will go to the Angels. $$$-ball beats Moneyball this time around.

Let's say it, the Cubs will meet the Red Sox in the Series. Make whatever arrangements you feel are necessary to get your earthly affairs in order.

I like Jim Thome to edge Albert Pujols and Barry Bonds for the NL MVP. The darkhorse for this award will be Derrek Lee. If he takes to the cozy power alleys of Wrigley, he could have a monster year in the middle of the Cubs' lineup. I look for Randy Johnson to re-assert himself as the NL Cy Young winner, given Mark Prior's opening stint on the DL.

I'll go with Vladimir Guerrero as the AL MVP, edging out A-Rod. The super-sleeper for this award is Torii Hunter. If he can put together a season like .285/30/125 and lead the Twins to their third straight AL Central crown, he'll get a lot of consideration, and I think the Twins have just enough in the lineup around him for him to accomplish this. Tim Hudson is due for a Cy Young, I think, so I'll go with him for the AL award.

posted by Tom Renbarger 6:53 PM

Wednesday, March 31, 2004

Hopefully now that the season has started, the entire steroid nastiness will die down. But before that happens, I'd like to share one last story. A recent article details the steroid-fuelled fall of Rob Garibaldi, a USC baseball player.

Garibaldi was a little guy, and had the idea of size and power built into his head for years by baseball managers and scouts. He had decent talent, was drafted in the late rounds by the Yankees in 1999, and was a good college baseball player. But after his sophomore year he was told by the USC coaching staff that he should be a better power hitter. According to Garibaldi's mother, one of the trainers helped him get started on steroids.

What followed was a sad story. He had serious emotional and violence problems, and his roommates had to buy deadbolt locks for their doors, and (since they were ballplayers themselves) they started sleeping with their baseball bats.

Things spiraled downward. He was kicked off the USC due to his behavior problems, and he ended up in a Division II program. He went undrafted after the completion of his collegiate career, and at the age of 24 took his own life. One of the effects of steroid withdrawal is depression.

First of all, this raises the question of NCAA testing. According to the NCAA Website steorid testing takes place in a random year-round fashion only for football and track. All other sports have testing only at championship events. In other words, there's a date on the calendar and the athletes can time their steroid cycles without fear of detection. Entire teams can juice, and nobody would know the better. While individual schools are allowed to have stricter detection programs, they would have to bear the cost, and also the competitive disadvantage of a clean program. Next time you see all of the "NBA bodies" on a college hoops team, remember that there is more or less no effective steroid testing for that sport. Bottom line, Garibaldi could have easily gotten away with steroid use, the NCAA was willing to look the other way.


This is a story that should be told to all high school and college athletes. Not just because of the tragic ending, but because of how well the steroids worked for Garibaldi. The best place for minor league and college stats is The Baseball Cube. Here are Garibaldi's stats at USC before and after steroids:

Year	Avg	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SLG	OBP	OPS
2000	.335	60	224	46	75	17	1	8	44	24	29	.527	.405	932
2001	.281	41	135	22	38	5	1	1	25	19	20	.356	.365	721

Did the power numbers go up? No they crashed. He might have been bigger, stronger and more surly, but he was a poorer ball player. Baseball is a difficult game, and there is a strong mental aspect. A load of extra testosterone flowing through your veins makes you more aggressive; this could hurt you at the plate. Again, look at the stats, Garibaldi's stats were worse after he started juicing. Is this all due to steroids? Of course not, he was trying to change his game to be a more powerful hitter, and the adjustments, in both technique and physique, did not combine for the winning formula. Given the sample size even taking the signal from the noise is hard. But it's important to see that steroids did not act like a magic bullet, and helped a once promising baseball career crash and burn.

posted by David 10:15 AM

Monday, March 29, 2004

To welcome everyone back to the 2004 TDA Bullpen, I'd like to boldly predict this coming season which promises to be a great one. Here's a breakdown for each division:

The NL East will be a fight between the World Champion Florida Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies, as the Phils finally come together as a team and win their first division title in quite some time. While the Marlins have the young pitching and strong bats, Philly has Jim Thome and one of the best closers in the game in Billy Wagner.

The NL Central will be a back and forth dogfight with the Chicago Cubs emerging victorious over the Houston Astros. Though Mark Prior is fighting through multiple injuries, he'll still come back to win 20 games. Those very same Astros will win the Wild Card berth and head to the playoffs with a very dangerous 1-2-3 pitching combo of Pettitte, Clemens and Oswalt.

The NL West has seen some changes in the offseason, but it's the San Diego Padres who have looked the strongest out of spring training. They can pound the ball and have a new stadium to play in. Look for them to win a close battle between them and Barry Bonds' Giants.

Everyone will be following the AL East this summer and while I'll be stating the obvious, it's anyone's division if there's a significant injury somewhere. The Yanks win the division with the BoSox trailing to win another Wild Card. A-Rod will dominate in that jaw-dropping lineup card, while Boston's pitching keeps them nipping at New York's heels.

I think the AL Central is the most interesting division in baseball right now with all of the youth and excitment surrounding each team. I'm giving it to the Kansas City Royals, who will battle the Minnesota Twins for a title. Juan Gonzalez won't stay healthy, but it won't matter as Carlos Beltran continues to ama

Finally, the AL West crown will go to the new and improved Anaheim Angels. Vlad, Bartolo and Escobar will shine while Billy Beane's Oakland A's will come up just short. Yes, they have the best young three pitchers in the majors, but their bullpen and starting lineup are truly facing adversity this year.

I'm not going to predict the playoffs this year. Here's why: the teams who I believe will be in the World Series don't need any more jinxing. Oops, just gave it away.

And now for a few random predictions: the afformentioned Beltran will win the AL batting crown, while Albert Pujols continues his dominance, winning the NL's race. In a surprising win, another Carlos hits the most dingers in the AL. This time it's the Toronto Blue Jays' Delgado. I'm giving the NL home run title to Richie Sexson. Pujols will compete for the Triple Crown and fall short. Pat Burrell will make a comeback this season and still strike out over 120 times. Esteban Loaiza was a fluke last season but he'll still win 15 games. Eric Gagne will continue his dominance; John Smoltz will not. And finally, Bonds will come ever so close to George Herman but come up just short with 52 home runs this season.

Let's hear the predictions from the rest of the staff.

posted by Charles Curtis 11:44 AM