TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Saturday, February 21, 2004

Nerds have a long proud history in baseball. See:

The Art of Pitching in Baseball by Henry Chadwick, 1886
and
The Inside Game by Hugh Fullerton, 1910

posted by David 11:11 PM

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I got a kick out of a recent Frank DeFord piece lamenting the takeover in sports of the philosopher, the mathematician, and the nerd. On the one hand, this is kind of ridiculous. This isn't the angle that Mr. DeFord pursued in his piece, but it seems pretty obvious that the ability to play sports and the ability to evaluate talent needn't go hand-in-hand. Quick, name the most successful personnel executive who's also played in the All-Star Game.

But I also have something to say about the point DeFord *was* trying to make, namely, what's the best way to evaluate talent on the field. The lessons that the new era of Moneyball have taught us are pretty easy to sum up:

1. Sign players who make plays, not guys with "tools." Hire the guys with tools to be your carpenter and electrician.

2. Pay more attention to rate statistics and less to counting statistics.

Seems pretty simple to me. Gut feelings and clutch performances are all well and good, but anyone with any statistical competence whatsoever is going to tell you that you're going to get a better feel for how good a player is if you consider his overall career as opposed to his performance in a few important games. And the evaluation in a rate-statistic sort of sense is going to require just a touch of mathematical competence, it is true, but if you were to ask me whether there are too few or too many bean-counters in major league personnel offices, I would unhesitatingly answer "too few."

Now, if you'll excuse me, this egghead has to go bone up on his nerd lessons.

posted by Tom Renbarger 3:59 PM

Friday, February 20, 2004

Google
I went to Google tonight and typed in "baseball photos" and got the following results. Looks like we are considered to be the #4 site in the world for that keyword search.

Which kind of tells you something is fishy with Google's new ranking formula. Not that I don't think we could be #4 (or higher baby!), but looking at some of the pages close to us, I saw some great libraries filled with photos, and then some pretty poor efforts. In the end, this is what you get when you have a ranking system that is based upon a "who is linking to this site" judgement rather than a human seeing if the site passes muster. There's still lots of chaff in the system. In the meantime, I'm not going to complain about the traffic we'll see sitting at #4.

posted by David 10:07 AM

Tuesday, February 17, 2004

So Steinbrenner has done it again. In the much-hyped "arms race" between the BoSox and Yanks, I think New York wins this round (as much as I hate to admit it). But as many writers have pointed out, we shouldn't write them in as champions yet with Alex Rodriguez on board. There are so many factors to consider on a team that's a far cry from the late-90s "dynasty" Yankees:

1) Chemistry: Andy Pettitte's gone. The Rocket followed suit. Now that Alfonso Soriano's out of town, the Yanks are a mixture of disparate elements, and a volitile combination at that. Gary Sheffield has been known to run his mouth to the press quite a bit. Kenny Lofton is penciled in at center field while Bernie Williams, the soul of those four championship-winning teams, still wants to play there rather than DH. Uh-oh. And now, add the highest-paid player in the world to this mixture. The same guy who single-handedly almost destroyed the chemistry of a team he wasn't even a part of (Nomar, Manny and the Red Sox are still recovering). We all know that The Boss doesn't like controversy. We all know that a World Series winning team needs chemistry (just ask the Marlins, Angels and Diamondbacks). If this team underperforms at all, the Yanks will be a mess of grumbling superstars and George will throw a fit, one that not even GM Brian Cashman may not be able to deal with.

2) Age: Let's face it. The Yanks as a whole are no spring chickens. Their youngest player in the starting lineup and rotation is - you guessed it - A-Rod, who isn't exactly a rookie at the age of 28. Injuries could become a factor along with the fact that some of these guys seemed to burn out during the playoffs. Steinbrenner has taken a huge risk by acquiring Kevin Brown while also depending on Jon Lieber, who has spent a year and a half on the disabled list, to carry the pitching load. He could be in for some trouble mid-season if the injury bug starts biting again.

3) The Playoffs: So by game #162, there are five Yankees who have driven in over 100 RBI. They've got two 20-game winners, a closer with 45 saves, and they're the best team in baseball by ten games. So what? They haven't been able to win a ring against younger teams with little to no playoff experience. In my opinion, George traded away his star second basemen simply because Soriano experienced a power outage in the postseason. It could happen again this year. With small payrolls winning championships these days, the Yanks may learn the hard way that $185 million doesn't buy another ring. While we complain that Steinbrenner's pockets are infinitely deep, A-Rod may not be the final piece of the Yankees' puzzle.

posted by Charles Curtis 10:00 AM

Monday, February 16, 2004

Catching Up with Tony
This is a photo taken right before Tony Gwynn gave me the Evil Eye. I was out shooting the San Diego Aztecs, and he was spending most of his time in the dugout, away from observation. He popped out for the National Anthem, and I realized I was in poor position and moved for a better shot. Just after this, he flipped open his left eye and gave me a "stop screwing around and honor your country" look. And I don't think he's wild about people taking his picture either...

I'll give Tony Gwynn this though - you watch most batting practices and there is a lot of goofing off going on. Not San Diego State, they do this very seriously. Many hitters return to the dugout after their turn and have a nice chat with Tony about what just happened. Here's a guy who is training the next generation; how many other Hall of Famers are doing anything like this?

posted by David 10:12 AM