TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Tuesday, October 05, 2004

Why the Cards Will Tank

I'm writing this in the first inning of the Dodgers-Cards game in St. Louis, so within a couple of hours I'll be a prophet or a fool. The conventional wisdom is that a 105-win team is the prohibitive post-season favorite. But here's why I think the Cards will tank no later than the LCS and why the Dodgers at least have a shot in a short series (who doesn't?)

The record is deceiving. If you look at the Cards' season, they benefited from three or four things to pad that win total. They had a couple of extra series against weak NL Central teams because of the lopsided divisional configuration. They got the AL West in interleague, at a time when the A's, Rangers, and Mariners were all playing poorly. They got the majority of their Reds, Astros, Braves, LA, and SF games when those teams were playing in poor streaks. I can't quantify this, but it sure looks like luck and the schedule helped the Cards this year.

The Cards Rotation is not in good shape. Carpenter's hurt, Marquis's been doing it with smoke and mirrors, Matt Morris has been awful since May, Woody Williams was wobbly going into the post-season. It's not a dominating set of pitchers, and the Cards will rely on their bullpen more than most.

Weak defense in the middle infield. Womack and Renteria have very limited range up the middle. A lot of Renteria's weaknesses are masked by Scott Rolen's extra range.

The offense isn't as good as you might think. Rolen's still playing hurt. Edmonds has been in a slump all month. Tony Womack has a pretty empty resume from the leadoff slot even with an up year. The catching slot's a null. Left field is still a question after 162 games.

Tony LaRussa thinks too much. He flips pitchers, he hits and runs, he steals, he pinch hits. With a lineup like Walker-Pujols-Rolen-Edmonds this isn't necessary, but he overmanages the way he's always overmanaged. This tendency tends to trip up managers in short series -- which is why LaRussa still has no ring in the NL, and why Bobby Cox has only 1 in 12 post-season trips.

As I write this, Albert Pujols has just put the Cards ahead on a solo shot off Odalis Perez, so I'm now officially gunning for fool -- for now. Woody Williams threw 25 pitches in the first.

posted by The Crank 10:22 AM