TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Saturday, October 16, 2004

So, there may or may not be technical difficulties in communications between David and myself, so I've posted the ALCS update with a couple of bonus addenda here in The Bullpen for the moment.

Lieber Keeps Series Unpivoted in Game 2

The Yankees head to Boston with a two games to none lead over the Red Sox, thanks largely to the mastery Yankee starters Mike Mussina and Jon Lieber have displayed their first two times through Boston's lineup. But if the manner in which the games unfolded is any reflection on how the series will progress, the Red Sox still have some life in them as they head home.

It was clear from the start that the Curt Schilling we saw in Game 1 was nowhere near the one who helped carry the D-backs to their 2001 title or threw seven solid innings against the Angels. While the two runs Schilling surrendered in the first might be laid partly at the feet of BoSox LF Manny Ramirez, the second time through the lineup was pretty much the Yankees dismantling the struggling ace in the third, as Schilling gave up four runs in the final inning of his shortest postseason appearance. New York then touched scheduled Game 4 starter Tim Wakefield for a pair of runs in the sixth, a less than encouraging sign for Red Sox Nation.

Meanwhile, Mussina was dominant, carrying a perfect game into the seventh inning. Mark Bellhorn broke up the perfecto bid with his one-out double, and at that point the Red Sox projected to have a total of five hits in a Yankee sweep, but they managed to log that many hits by the time the inning was done, capped by Jason Varitek's two-run shot off Tanyon Sturtze to make the game 8-5 Yankees. Tom Gordon had his troubles in the 8th, and a debateable decision to leave him in to face David Ortiz as the potential tying run, and Ortiz nearly did tie the game, winding up with a two-run triple before being stranded there by Mariano Rivera. The Red Sox managed to get the tying run to the plate after the Yankees pushed their lead to 10-7, but Rivera coaxed a 1-6-3 double play to end the game.

Jon Lieber was nearly as good as Mussina in Game 2, and was more economical in his pitches, getting through the first 5 1/3 innings having thrown only 47. Johnny Damon had an epic 16-pitch at-bat that culminated in a whistler to Bernie Williams that he had some trouble handling. Lieber made it all the way to the eighth, giving way to Gordon after a leadoff single. Gordon permitted that runner to score, but Rivera again stranded an inherited runner at third and worked a solid ninth, giving up a one-out double to Ramirez but flashing the form we're all accustomed to seeing from him as he struck out Ortiz and Kevin Millar to end the game. Pedro Martinez's parentage remains somewhat in doubt after his effort, six innings of work that went from good to just so-so after John Olerud's two-run homer in the sixth.

Now in Game 3 the matchup will be Kevin Brown vs. Bronson Arroyo. The Red Sox roughed Brown up in his first start back off the DL, knocking him out in the first inning on Sept. 26 at Fenway. Brown has rebound with a pair of solid efforts in the Yankees' season closer against Toronto and in his Game 3 start against the Twins in the division series. Arroyo was 2-7 through the end of June but rebounded to get his record to 10-9 by season's end, settling in as the Red Sox's second most dependable starter down the stretch, and offering a good six innings of two-run ball against the Angels in the division series clincher. The Red Sox desperately need to do some damage before the third time through their order, but if the Brown who showed up in his last two starts appears again on Friday, the Sox will be in big trouble.

The one thing that might give pause before crowning the Yanks as AL champs is the fact that in the two games where they've taken big leads, Game 3 vs. the Twins and Game 1 vs. Boston, the bullpen surrendered enough of the lead to force Joe Torre to use Mariano Rivera. That means the rallies are there for the taking, even against guys like Sturtze and Gordon who've been so good down the stretch. In the five trips to the bullpen that Torre has made, only once has a Yankee reliever managed not to give up an extra-base hit, and in that inning the Red Sox still managed to get the tying-run to the plate against Rivera. I look for a desperate Red Sox club to claw their way to victory in Game 3, and then a wild showdown between Javier Vazquez and Tim Wakefield to be the fulcrum of the series. A 2-2 standing after four makes it a race, a 3-1 Yankees lead means doom for Boston given a gauntlet of Mussina, Lieber, and Brown to run for a trip to the World Series.

Update!

Well, I got this piece out so fast I didn't know about Schilling's more-or-less season-ending injury. That's big trouble, unless it was really Derek Lowe pitching in a Curt Schilling costume all along. The Red Sox are looking to be a slight underdog to even make it back to Yankee Stadium at this point. The Sox better bring their boom sticks to the plate this weekend. Maybe with a scratched out win on Friday and El Duque, who's just been named the Game 4 starter for New York, not quite back to top form, the Red Sox can still get it back to a best-of-3 situations. Stay tuned, sports fans.

Bonus Update!!

Tonight's rainout has kind of a complicated effect on the series, in my view. In the short term, it definitely favors the Yankees -- an extra day's rest for Brown and especially El Duque has to help, and the back end of the Yanks' bullpen will be ready to go. The Red Sox, by contrast, have a deeper pen and a Game 4 starter in Wakefield that don't really need the extra rest.

Having said that, the longer the Red Sox can stretch the series, the more the rainout will help them. The big thing is getting Pedro to pitch at home in Game 5 on Monday with full rest. I keep seeing that Derek Lowe is slated to start Game 5, but I'd slip him back to Game 6 myself, particularly if it's 3-1 going into Game 5. And that bullpen depth will come into play if the Red Sox can force a return to the Bronx. There's even the possibility of a Dramatic Return for Curt Schilling in Game 7, and if not, then we could see an Arroyo + Wakefield 5 + 2 inning sort of deal if the series actually makes it to Wednesday night.

posted by Tom Renbarger 1:04 AM