TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Saturday, October 02, 2004

Cubs Prepare For Move to Manila

As of Sept. 24th, the Chicago Cubs had an 87-66 record, a two-game lead in the loss column over the S.F. Giants for the NL Wild Card, had won 8 out of 10 games in a 9-day stretch covering 4 cities, and had Mark Prior and Kerry Wood lined up to finish the trip in New York before coming home for a regular season-ending 7-game homestand, starting off with 4 games against the lowly Cincinnati Reds.

We all know how things turned out, now that the Cubs have been eliminated from Wild Card contention after this afternoon's 8-6 loss to the Atlanta Braves. A playoff berth which was theirs for the taking was lost with dispatch. The Cubs might wind up fourth in the WC race in the end, pending the outcome of the Cubs' final game and the S.D. Padres' final two.

Given the way the Marlins and eventually the Cubs faded down the stretch, it seems certain that that final part of the schedule of 20+ days with no days off caught up to both teams. The Marlins also had the misfortune to absorb some key injuries down the stretch, but the Cubs were more or less at full strength and still couldn't avoid some serious fade action. I really thought the bullpen would be in decent shape, and they were excellent up until the final homestand, but Hawkins did have some trouble down the stretch, though he wasn't the only one, just the one with the highest profile. The bats also fell silent in key situations. From an e-mail I sent David concerning the Cubs' Wednesday loss against the Reds:

Who would've thought that it would have been the bats going silent that would keep the Cubs out of the playoffs. I know there's been some blown saves in there, but come on, bases loaded nobody out in the 7th (yesterday) with Alou, Ramirez, and Lee coming up and you get one run?! Those blue "run-scoring play" balls from the mlb.com gameday thingy in the two run-scoring Alou PA's yesterday were extremely deceptive. Bases loaded with nobody out in the 7th and runners on the corners with no outs in the 12th (I think) and the run-scoring plays were a sac fly and a GIDP. Way to get those runs home, Moises, Jeff Kent would've been proud.

This wasn't an isolated instance of the Cubs failing to pick up ducks on the pond during this final fateful homestand. Through that Sept. 24 date, I noted that the Cubs had won their last three one-run games, all on the road, and almost mentioned something about it here. I'm glad I didn't, as the Cubs dropped five one-run contests, including three at Wrigley, during this season-ending 1-7 "run," a run fueled as much or more by a lack of timely hitting as by bullpen woes.

There's plenty to look forward to for Cubs' fans next season, but there's a lot up in the air as well. Carlos Zambrano has established himself has a bona fide ace and workhorse with his performance this year. I think we finally saw the real Mark Prior in his last few starts this season, so it seems a fair bet that we'll be treated next year to the Prior who showed up in these last few weeks and Aug.-Oct. of 2002. Glendon Rusch could make things interesting regarding the status of Matt Clement, who's eligible for free agency. Kyle Farnsworth quietly strung together several solid appearances after returning from the aftermath of his karate lesson with a clubhouse fan before finally getting tagged with a loss in his most recent appearance. And the 3B problem that has plagued the Cubs for decades finally seems under control with Aramis Ramirez manning the position.

The uncertainties are numerous as well, however. It seems almost certain that neither Moises Alou nor Nomar Garciaparra will be back next year. There have even been whispers that Sammy Sosa might be traded. That's a lot of thunder in the lineup that would need replacing. The closer situation is a bit unsettled. LaTroy Hawkins was great for two weeks after the postponed series in Florida, but this final week and a half have been trouble for him. Will Joe Borowski return and move Hawkins back to his more comfortable setup role? Will next year finally be the year that Farnsworth comes into his seeming birthright of being a 40-save guy? Is Ryan Dempster in the mix for a closing role, or barring that, a shot at the rotation? Can the Cubs get Corey Patterson to run a little less hot and cold than he did in August and September this year? Tune in next year.

posted by Tom Renbarger 1:48 PM