TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Monday, September 06, 2004

Should Have Looked at the Schedule More Closely

My chance to look prophetic was foiled by too much writing. Originally I had predicted that Santana would take a no-hitter into the 7th in one of his remaining starts. I then refined that to a no-hitter into the 7th by the end of August, a modification that turned out to be too clever by half, as the British are wont to say. Santana no-hit the Royals through 6 in his first start in September, of course, and had I looked at the Twins' schedule at the end of August, which saw them playing the Rangers and Angels, and at the beginning of September where the Royals series was, I might have only modified my prediction to "before Labor Day" or not at all.

Ah, well, at least I think I was a little ahead of the curve in identifying Santana as a CYA candidate back when he was only 8-6. Now that he's 16-6 with a 2.95 ERA he has to be no worse than co-favorite, considering his league lead in K's and his closer-like 0.95 ratio. If Santana gets to 20 wins, I think he wins in a landslide. If not, and one of Mark Mulder or Curt Schilling gets to 21 or 22 wins, it'll be an interesting vote. Right now I'd put 1-2-3 in the order of Santana, Schilling, and Mulder, with Pedro Martinez a strong 4th.

How Much Will The Cubs' Bullpen Suffer?

There was some talk on Baseball Tonight about how much the Cubs' bullpen is in danger because of the extra games they'll have to make up. I understand what they're driving at, but their analysis definitely overlooked the fact that the Cubbies have Glendon Rusch waiting in the wings as an emergency starter. So even though the Cubs might have to play 26 games in 24 days without a day off, Rusch can be pressed into service in the 2nd game on the 9th and 20th, for example, and then the normal rotation can keep up its regular 5-man cycle.

Specifically, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood look to be the guys who will go Friday and Saturday in some order with Rusch the likely starter in the nightcap game on Friday (assuming this really happens), and then Rusch can be "handcuffed" to one of Prior (more likely) or Wood, after which he'd be on a more or less normal rotation for a makeup doubleheader in Florida on the 20th. Heck, with the off day on Thursday it's possible that the Cubs could trot out both Wood and Prior on Friday, have Zambrano pitch on his normal day Saturday, and Clement on Sunday. There would be a snag when one of Prior or Wood has to go on Tuesday, so Rusch could fill in there. I like the 6-man rotation a little better myself, as thing are set up perfectly to work that way, and then the Big 5 just go like clockwork every fifth day in September, and the bullpen basically gets used in the way it always has.

The Adam Dunn Watch

Dunn whiffed two times today to bring his season strikout total to 164 through 136 games for the Reds, in which Dunn has played in 135. Assuming one day off down the stretch, at his current whiffing pace Dunn would wind up with 194 for the season. He currently sits in third place in the NL HR race with 41, three behind Adrian Beltre and two behind Albert Pujols.

The real question is whether Dunn gets put into the lineup every day down the stretch. When Jose Hernandez got to 188 K's a few years back, the Brewers sat him to protect his K total. Dunn being in the middle of the HR race might make it harder to sit him. It should be noted that competitive integrity really only demands that Dunn appear in 10 games, the last two this week against the Astros, and the eight games the Reds have left against the Cubs. The other 16 games on the Reds' schedule include 6 with Pittsburgh, 4 with Milwaukee, and 3 with Atlanta and Philly. There won't be anything on the line in terms of post-season play in those game, so there's a real chance Dunn could be held out of the lineup in some of those games.

posted by Tom Renbarger 9:54 PM