TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Sunday, September 12, 2004

How Do The Rotations Look?

With Matt Clement's early departure necessitating some relief help from Glendon Rusch last Tuesday night, the Cubs had to go with a variant of the alternate plan I outlined in the second part of my post on Monday, one in which Wood and Prior both started on Friday and Rusch took Clement's spot today. The Cubs look pretty confident that Clement will be able to go on Tuesday, given that the most likely emergency starter beyond Rusch, Sergio Mitre, just came in to pitch relief in the 7th. There's no way Mitre comes in this afternoon to throw two innings and then turns around and starts on Tuesday.

This makes Clement's start on Tuesday pretty big. If he has more problems, the Cubs are left a bit in the lurch. To wit, if all goes well, the Cubs' rotation down the stretch (starting from Sept, 6th, the first game after the postponed series in Florida) will look like (a plus sign means both pitchers listed did/will pitch, a slash indicates an choice among multiple options):

6th - Zambrano
7th - Clement + Rusch
8th - Maddux
10th - Wood
10th - Prior
11th - Zambrano
12th - Rusch
13th - Maddux
14th - Clement
15th - Wood/Prior
16th - Prior/Wood
17th - Zambrano
18th - Maddux
19th - Clement
20th - Wood/Prior
20th - Rusch
21st - Prior/Wood
22nd - Zambrano
23rd - Maddux
24th - Clement
25th - Wood/Prior
etc.

Not too shabby, even with Rusch's struggles against Florida today. But if Clement has some problems, the Cubs would be looking at:

14th - Clement + Some Guy(s)
15th - Wood/Prior
16th - Prior/Wood
17th - Zambrano
18th - Maddux
19th - Clement/Rusch/Mitre
20th - Wood/Prior
20th - Rusch/Clement/Mitre
21st - Prior/Wood
22nd - Zambrano
23rd - Maddux
24th - Clement/(Rusch/Mitre assuming lingering effects of injury)
25th - Wood/Prior
etc.

One intriguing variant, though it seems unlikely this would play out, would be to have one of Friday's starters pitch in in relief if Clement encounters trouble on Tuesday, trouble which lingers for a while and may affect future appearances. For example:

14th - Clement + Wood
15th - Prior
16th - Zambrano
17th - Rusch
18th - Maddux
19th - Wood
20th - Prior
20th - Mitre/Clement
21st - Zambrano
22nd - Rusch
23rd - Maddux
24th - Wood
25th - Prior
etc.

Then Rusch fills in for Clement until he's ready to go again. The trouble for the Cubs is that if Clement falters, there's a reasonable likelihood that Mitre winds up making a start against Florida, and he's just given up four runs in his second inning of relief (actually he was pulled after 1 2/3).

This isn't to say that the Marlins are in any better shape than the Cubs after their troubles with the weather. Here's what they're looking at rotation-wise, with impending doubleheaders on the 14th and the 20th:

7th - Burnett
8th - Beckett
9th - Valdez
10th - Pavano
10th - Kensing
11th - Willis
12th - Burnett
13th - Beckett
14th - Valdez
14th - Some Guy/Kensing(?)
15th - Pavano
16th - Willis
17th - Burnett
18th - Beckett
19th - Valdez
20th - Pavano
20th - Kensing/Some (Other?) Guy
21st - Willis
22nd - Burnett
23rd - Beckett
24th - Valdez
25th - Pavano
etc.

Logan Kensing was the first emergency starter for the Marlins on Friday, and he only lasted 49 pitches against the Cubs. The plus side to that is that he's theoretically available on both the 14th and the 20th, the minus side is that he got knocked out in fewer than 50 pitches. I'm not sure of the identity of Some Guy, but they have to come up with someone if Kensing on short rest isn't an option. Maybe Nate Bump? One thing the Marlins will have going for them is that Carl Pavano will catch the Cubs again on the 20th.

If Clement has worked out the kinks, the Cubs will definitely be in better shape with their starters than the Marlins. If not, one of the biggest games in the NL Wild Card race, the nightcap between the Cubs and the Marlins in Pro Player on the 20th, could see a Sergio Mitre vs. Logan Kensing matchup. Stay tuned...

Update 9/14

I guess I screwed up the date of the Marlins-Expos doubleheader, as it's tomorrow, not today, or perhaps it was changed in the interim since I last wrote. Whatever the case, it now stands that Logan Kensing, if he's going to be the guy, is set up to start on the 15th and the 20th. I did notice that the nightcap starter for the Marlins is still listed as TBD.

On the Cubs' side, after a rough start Matt Clement settled down to give the Cubs 6 solid innings before being lifted. Now the Cubs need to get off the diet of donuts that Josh Fogg (Josh Fogg?!?!) has been feeding them...

posted by Tom Renbarger 1:30 PM