TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Friday, September 03, 2004

Damon in the Rough

Another MVP Candidate Lurking in the Fenway Outfield Grass

Manny Ramirez and Gary Sheffield have been talked up a lot of late as MVP candidates, and their contributions to their teams have been prodigious indeed. But after watching a game like last night's 4-3 squeaker at Fenway, in which Manny Ramirez struck out nine times with the bases loaded, I have to confess to having some doubts about Manny's ability to carry the team. The "most valuable" monniker, after all, long subject to interpretations varying more than those for the second amendment, is nevertheless meant to embody a contribution to team above and beyond mere statistical merit.

That's one reason Johnny Damon might be considered for MVP this year. In this era where the voting for MVP seems to be moving from the tyranny of the RBI champ to the tyranny of the OPS champ, Damon might not get much notice. Damon's .862 OPS is 25th in the league; neither component, his .391 OBP nor his .471 SLG, is particularly remarkable. He's tenth in the league in that old saw, batting average, among a large cadre of similar batting averages in the .300-.320 range. He's got only 16 steals,

Looking beyond the strange equations of averages, though, there's another story.

Damon is leading the league right now with 106 runs scored. Of course Damon benefits from being the leadoff man for a potent offense. But similarly Manny benefits from being able to drive in Damon, et alia. The man has to be on base to drive him in, and except for Ichiro, nobody's been on base more. Among the league's hit leaders, he has by far the greatest number of walks, at 66, which has put him safely on first 231 times. For whatever this is worth, he's also managed 66 RBI from the top of the lineup.

Damon is also seventh in the league in number of pitches per plate appearance at 4.3 (Ichiro, by contrast, is way down there at 3.5). There is an increasing understanding that the club that wears down its opposition, independent of pure OBP, opens the door to late rallies. If you want your leadoff man to give the rest of the club a good look, Damon's the best in the league this season. If you want to go sabrmetric, he's seventh in the league in runs created, behind both Manny and Sheff, but ahead of A Rod and Matsui.

Johnny's a good centerfielder, although not exceptional. His arm isn't close to Ichiro's, although he's got a big and weird centerfield to patrol compared to Suzuki's right field porch. (It should be said that Manny's doing a decent job in left, albeit with occasional mental lapses, and Sheff's been one of the premier right fielders for years.) But contributions on defense are overrated to a degree, and rarely seem to enter into MVP voting, anyway.

I think the best case that could be made for Damon as MVP is that dreaded "intangible contributions" category which tends to be very subjective. But it's a subjective award -- and there's a strong case for Damon here. At least three times he's scored the winning run in a "sudden death" tie game (ninth inning or later) from first on a hit behind him. He seems constantly to be at the center of two-out rallies and tough Red Sox come from behind victories.

Last year the Red Sox had the whole "cowboy up" thing as their theme. This year, it's been the Unfrozen Caveman Centerfielder, Johnny Damon flying around the bases in his long hair and cro-magnon beard. If the leadoff man sets the tone for the lineup and the game, the Red Sox have a clear MVP in Damon.

I'm a Genius, I'd Bet

(Apologies to Emo Phillips.) I was checking out some of my past pronouncements and punditry earlier today, and noticed this from my mid-season predictions-correction article:

Here's my pre-season predictions from this space from back in April, with some commentary.

AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Orioles
4. Blue Jays
5. Devil Rays

You know, I'm going to stand by this predicted order of finish at the top, despite the Yankees' seeming dominance. Old teams fall apart in the second half, and Boston's pythagorean numbers are better than this. The Red Sox bullpen may be blowing games once again, but the Yankees are losing to Detroit and Tampa Bay this week, too.

It's always nice to look a little less like a lunatic than usual. Too bad it doesn't happen too often.

How Boring is This?

If the season ended today, six of eight playoff teams would be the same as last year -- and of the four division series, three would have exactly the same match-ups as last year. Boston-Oakland, Minnesota-New York, and Chicago-Atlanta. Only St. Louis-LA would be a new set.

posted by The Crank 9:00 AM