TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Monday, August 02, 2004

So Long, Nomar

Don't Let That Swinging Door Hit You on the Way Out

If there were a 12-step program for being a member of the Red Sox Nation, I'd be a candidate for it, were I not surrounded by so many co-dependent enablers. There was no bigger booster of Nomar in a Red Sox uniform than I: I first fell in love with the man when he made an astounding leaping catch of a sure line-drive double from the shortstop position at a game I watched in double-A Trenton ten years ago. For heaven's sake, we took my infant son home from the hospital in a Nomar Number 5 outfit.

So why on earth am I so happy to see Nomah no more?

Skipping all the irrelevant falderal about Nomar's attitude, his unhappiness with the organization, etc. there's a very good reason. Nomar is on his way to being a not very good hitter.

At 31, Nomar has never learned to lay off that first pitch. "First pitch swinging, what a shocker," we say to one another with great regularity. When Jerry Remy got a wire notice that Nomar had hit into an inning-ending double play in his first at-bat as a Cub, he said sarcastically "I wonder if he swung at the first pitch."

This has always been a problem for Nomar, but when you have quick wrists and a great eye, it's not apparent. Your .357 to win the batting championship makes up for a lot of lost on-base percentage. But when you're in your thirties, your reflexes are slowing, and your wrist has had reconstructive surgery, it's time to apply the years of baseball wisdom you've accumulated and start attacking the at-bat with some veteran wile.

Not so Nomar. Here are his pitches per plate appearance since 1997 up through his last game with the Red Sox:

3.74
3.23
3.37
3.22
3.05
3.18
3.06
3.12
2.93

Not only does Nomar see fewer pitches than virtually any regular in the majors per at-bat, he's swinging earlier and earlier. For comparison, the major league median among regulars is 3.8 pitches per plate appearance; the worst two hitters in this category in the majors right now are AJ Pierznski and Alex Sanchez, at 3.0 pitches per plate appearance.

If you want to look at it another way, a pitcher throwing to a lineup of Nomars who gives up a hit an inning can throw a 9-inning complete game with just 108 pitches. A pitcher throwing to a lineup of, say, Bob Abreus, is going to take 155 pitches to complete that same game.

A pitcher is a fool to throw Nomar something hittable in the first three pitches, since the number of 3-0 counts Nomar has run up over the years can be counted with the stitches on a baseball with quite a few left to spare. I have my suspicions it's exactly this tendency which leaves the impression Nomar doesn't come through in the clutch: if there is such a thing as being a clutch hitter, it's because of working the count in key situations. Showing patience.

He's going to fit right in on the free-swinging Dusty Baker Cubs, where free-swinging is a way of life. (Dusty, at this writing, has just installed Corey Patterson as his leadoff hitter and parked Nomar right in front of Sammy. The breeze is going to be blowing out at Wrigley quite a bit this year.)

Nomar, man, I LOVE YOU. I can't wait to see what kind of super-kids you and Mia Hamm produce. But what Theo Epstein knows about you and didn't say: you're never going to be the great superstar hitter you once looked like, because you just didn't learn to think through your at-bats.

Nomar's got a lot of hacks left in him, and those balls are going to fly far. But he's got many more swings and misses and pop-ups in his future, unless he gets his own 12-step program for those who become Drunk on First Pitch Swinging.

posted by The Crank 3:35 PM