TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Wednesday, July 21, 2004

Simulated Blog Entry

I'm getting to the end of my blogging backlog tonight. It's clear that I haven't been at peak efficiency in the past week or so. Since I'm working my way back into top blogging shape, I'll pick up on a somewhat untimely theme in my simulated blog entry, the issue of where the Twins' All-Stars were, as I mentioned sometime a week or so ago. Specifically, why only one Twin All-Star vs. two for the Tigers and five for Cleveland. I'm not going to address the White Sox -- that's more David's show if he wants it, I was always more of a Cubs' fan. Hopefully once I finish this up I'll be ready for a game-situation blog.

The two Tigers All-Stars are no-doubters. Pudge and Carlos Guillen have been having monster seasons. We'll throw Victor Martinez with the no-brainers. Ronnie Belliard is a sleeper but he's definitely having a better year than any Twins infielder. This leaves Matt Lawton vs. Lew Ford and some Twins' pitchers to think about.

Position Players

The discussion begins and ends with Lew Ford. Had Torii Hunter been healthy the entire season and had power stats along the lines of low teens in homers and 50+ RBI by July 3 (the day before teams were announced), maybe when taken together with his first-rate glove work he would have been in the running.

Ford vs. Lawton is an interesting comparison. Here's how they stacked up through games played on July 3:

Ford/Lawton:

HR - 9/13
RBI - 40/47
AVG - .319/.315
OBP - .379/.384
SLG - .482/.476
R - 39/60
SB - 10-11/14-22
AB+BB - 311/348

It's close on the rate stats. Lawton had a little more than 10% more PA's. The 13-9 edge in homers probably helped, as did the 60-39 edge in runs. If you don't look closely, 14 steals to 10 looks good for Lawton as well, though Ford was by far the more efficient thief. Ford didn't have anyone like Martinez hitting behind him in the lineup, and also was stuck on 9 dingers since June 15. That's probably just enough to make Lawton a reserve and Ford one of the Final Vote candidates.

Pitchers

One possibility that snuck up on me was Juan Rincon. He was racking up the wins early but wasn't doing all that great, but he had a pretty big June. By the time of July 3, he was giving Tom Gordon a run for his money:

Rincon/Gordon

W-L - 8-3/2-2
SV - 2/2
BSV - 2/2
ERA - 1.94/1.51
G - 38/41
IP - 41.2/47.2
H - 27/25
BB - 21/13
K - 51/44
R - 10/9
ER - 9/8
K/9 - 11.0/8.3
Ratio - 1.15/0.81

Taken as a whole, Gordon probably does have the edge over Rincon, in addition to the decided advantage of his skipper doing the picking of the reserves. I'm trying to figure out when Rincon became an 11 K per 9 innings kind of a pitcher, that was a bit of an eye-opener for me. Also note that they both have the same number of blown saves, so Rincon's wins didn't come from blowing leads and having his team rally late.

Then there are the starters, Brad Radke and Johan Santana. I won't dwell on Santana for too long (well, "too long" might be subjective), since I've written a lot about him in the past month. But I will say enough to mention that he was 6-5 with a 4.22 ERA on July 3. That won't cut it, even if you're leading the league in strikeouts. His shutout of KC got him to 7-5 and 3.89 by the time Curt Schilling needed replacing, but Torre went with Jake Westbrook instead, who was 6-4 with an ERA over half a point lower than Santana (and of course lots of folks thought Cliff Lee and his 9-1 mark and sub-4 ERA should have been the pick).

Then Santana dropped the game right before the break, as I wrote about before, to wind up 7-6 and 3.78. The last words I want to mention about Santana are that he was basically three mistakes from being a no-brainer choice for the team. He gave up two-out, three-run homer in the sixth to Aubrey Huff in a 4-2 loss to Tampa Bay on June 3, a two-out homer in the first to Carlos Lee on July 1 in a 2-1 loss to the White Sox, and the two-out, two-run jack to Eric Munson in the 2-0 loss he suffered right before the break. Even considering the fact that the Twins have only scored him three runs in his last three losses, take those mistakes away and, assuming everything else played out the same way, Santana would've been riding a 7-game winning streak into the break, and been 9-3 with a 3.27 ERA. And the league-leader in K's, let's not forget.

OK, if that was keeping things brief for Santana, you know I've got a lot to say about Radke. He was 4-4 with a 3.70 ERA on July 3. The .500 record really did not do him any favors, and it's clear that even though C.C. Sabathia had only 8 decisions by June 30, the 5-3 & 2.77 ERA makes him a tough guy to pass up.

But in looking at Radke's 9 (!) no-decisions up to that point, a disturbing trend emerges. On Opening Day, the team actually bails him out. Radke leaves after 6 trailing 4-0, but the Twins rally with four in the 8th to tie the Indiana, and then Shannon Stewart (remember him?) has a game-winning 3-run shot in the 11th.

After that, there's a lot of frustration for Mr. Radke. By date:

May 1 - 7 shutout innings vs. Anaheim, leaves with score tied 0-0.

May 6 - 6 IP, 1 ER vs. Seattle, leaves with score tied 1-1.

May 17 - Leads 5-2 through 6 vs. Toronto, allows first two batters to reach in the 7th, is yanked and the bullpen blows the save.

May 28 - 7 IP, 1 ER vs. KC, leaves with score tied 1-1.

June 8 - 7 IP, 1 ER vs. NYM, leaves with score tied 1-1.

June 13 - 7 IP, 1 ER vs. PHI, leaves with score tied 1-1.

June 19 - 6.2 IP, 5 R, 2 ER, leaves with 5-4 lead and tying run on base, when Aaron Fultz gives up a go-ahead homer to Scott Podsednik.

June 24 - 6.2 IP, 3 ER, leaves with 3-1 lead in the 7th, blown save.

That's a pretty gruesome litany for Mr. Radke from the beginning of May onwards. Five games leaving either a scoreless or a 1-1 game, and three blown saves. Even on the 24th, Radke is 4-3 with a 3.22 ERA, and a strong outing against the White Sox might still see him to the ASG. Sadly, the Sox tag him for 8 ER in 6 innings, to get him to the record/ERA quoted above. Even his mid-week shutout of the Royals, which gets him to 5-4 and 3.42, isn't enough to get him on board.

As I finish this, Radke just left with a 12-2 lead through 7. I think he's going to get back to .500 tonight. The Twinkies needed to spread some of these runs around to Radke's past efforts, though.

posted by Tom Renbarger 6:48 PM