TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Tuesday, July 20, 2004

Mid-Season Crow-Eating from the Punditry

I got a few phone calls in October, 2002 since I'd predicted the Angels would win it all back in April of that year. Last year I picked the Phish for the wild card, and while I didn't predict them pre-season to win it all, I did pick them to get into the Series and then win it in six once the Red Sox were out. Here's a hint at establishing a reputation for uncanny predictions: just pick weirdo longshots, not necessarily bizarre but likely under some scenarios, that defy the conventional wisdom, and eventually one of them will come through and you will stand out of the crowd. Inaccurate predictions are discarded quickly, accurate ones hailed as genius, unless they're the same predictions everybody else is making. Nobody is hailed as a genius for picking the Yankees pre-season.

In any event, I like to take a look at my own falderal at the halfway point and after the season is over, in part to re-examine what actually happened, but also to check my own assumptions.

Here's my pre-season predictions from this space from back in April, with some commentary.

AL East
1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Orioles
4. Blue Jays
5. Devil Rays

You know, I'm going to stand by this predicted order of finish at the top, despite the Yankees' seeming dominance. Old teams fall apart in the second half, and Boston's pythagorean numbers are better than this. The Red Sox bullpen may be blowing games once again, but the Yankees are losing to Detroit and Tampa Bay this week, too.

I am going to promote the Devil Rays to fourth and flip the Jays and Orioles.


AL Central
1. Royals
2. Twins
3. White Sox
4. Cleveland's team
5. Tigers

In the "how wrong can one guy be" category, picking the Royals to win -- which I did largely on the basis that in a division where the personnel had not switched that significantly, the Royals had beat the Central head to head last year -- is a winner in itself. I won't dissect the Royals' woes in detail, but failure of nerve by the management I think is the basic issue. They sure were in a hurry to sell Beltran. Cleveland, of course, is probably the bigger surprise this year, but one wants to note the club is still three games below .500. And Detroit, despite much improvement -- young pitching maturing and adding All-Star Ivan Rodriguez -- is still not great, but closing in on mediocrity has to be considered a huge accomplishhment. I've always loved Detroit, I loved going to Tiger Stadium for games, I think Comerica was a mistake because Tiger fans thrived on the intimacy with their club the old park forced and the kind of game the park created. The Tigers have finally adapted to Comerica, though, in an odd way, and brought on a few veterans to play the roomy park (with newly-shortened fences). That said, I think it's still next year.

For order of finish, just take the Royals out of the top and move them to the bottom and that's my second-half prediction.

AL West
1. Angels
2. Mariners
3. Athletics
4. Rangers

Another really rotten set of predictions. I missed the fact the Mariners were getting that old. The Rangers are the big surprise in the West, leading in the AILC by three games at present. They will fade in the Texas summer heat. The Angels have struggled with their pitching, and surprisingly are balking at giving up talent from their incredibly-laden farm system for Randy Johnson. If not Johnson, then who? The A's have had their problems, particularly with the rotation after Hudson and Mulder, but the Magic Beanes seem to be doing their usual thing.

Still, I'm guessing the Angels will figure out a move or two the A's can't counter, and we'll end up like this: Angels, A's, Rangers, M's.

AL MVP: Vlad Guerrero
AL Cy Young: Curt Schilling
AL ROY: None of the Above

Hey! I'm looking like more of a genius now! Both these guys are among the top three candidates for the post-season awards.



NL East
1. Phillies
2. Marlins
3. Braves
4. Expos
5. Mets

I didn't rate the Expos highly pre-season, I just rated the Mets as really, really bad. I hate the lineup, I didn't like the pitching, I didn't like the strength of competition. The division has sturggled, with most of the teams hovering around .500 after the Expos, and Atlanta has put on a surge in the last month while the Philies' pitching staff has struggled to keep up with the new ballpark, which is playing like Coors East at sea level. The Phils were rumoured to be trying to dump Kevin Millwood for Matt Morris, a deal the Cards passed on, and that sounds like desperation about how to get their pitchers into the groove in the new park.

For a revised predicted order of finish, though, I'm going to just stick to the Phillies, Marlins, Braves, then Mets, then Expos. I don't see the Braves making the deal to get their offense together, and the likes of Nick Green and Charles Thomas can't carry them far. The Marlins have far too much starting pitching relative to the rest of the division to be ignored, and I'm only picking the Phils over the Phish on a hunch that the big Philly offense will punch through the opposition in September.

NL Central
1. Cubs
2. Astros
3. Cardinals
4. Reds
5. Brewers
6. Pirates

Ouch. I didn't see Jason Marquis and Chris Carpenter emerging as near-aces for the Cards, and this prediction was made on the assumption Mark Prior would be back and healthy in May, not still ailing in July. But the Astros can't possibly be this bad, with that offense and veteran, if somewhat creaky (I'm talking Pettite here, not Clemens) starting pitching. They shouldn't've traded away Dotel, but then again the problem is bullpen depth, not the closing job per se. I expect the Cards to fade just a bit, but with a 9-game lead in the loss column they should persevere and win it; I think second place, and the wild card, will be a toss-up between the Astros and Cubs. What about the Reds? What about them? They played well enough to look respectable, their starters have improved, but they lack lineup and pitching depth for the long-haul. Milwaukee and Pittsburgh actually have put together excellent pitching staffs of "B"-grade pitchers, and only the possibility Pittsburgh will trade away a few parts will keep them in the basement. But I think it's possible the Pirates will surprise and not finish below .500.

I'm going to be bold here and predict a last-place finish for the Reds, with Pittsburgh just ahead of them and the Brewers finishing fourth.

NL West
1. Padres
2. Dodgers
3. Giants
4. Rockies
5. Diamondbacks

Hey! Finally I get to be smart! The Padres have slipped the last couple of weeks, but the top three teams have been flipping position for a month, and I am standing by this predicted order of finish top to bottom. The Giants can't sustain this without more pitching, the Dodgers have taken a lot of hits in their rotation, and the Padres are without Phil Nevin right now. It's a pitcher's division right now, even with Colorado, and I think the Padres will end up with the best rotation when the dust settles.

NL MVP: Albert Pujols
NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt
NL ROY: Aaron Miles (he has that Pat Listach flavor to him)

Oswalt has struggled as much as the Astros in putting away the final batters, and hasn't been helped by his bullpen. Roger Clemens certainly is the leading candidate on the Astros for the Cy Young, but my money's now on Jason Schmidt, who seems to be able to absorb punishing pitch counts and no help at all from his bullpen. Just having one of those years.

Rolen has been the popular choice mid-season for MVP, because of those gaudy RBI numbers. MVP voters love the idiotic RBI. Pujols has had a terrific year, although "off" his batting average numbers. He's leading the league in runs scored, but probably won't get credit for that. Basically at this point I think the MVP will come down to whichever Cardinal has the hotest final two weeks of the season.

posted by The Crank 10:45 AM