TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Friday, June 25, 2004

One More Killer B in Texas

The big news in baseball is the trade of CF Carlos Beltran from Kansas City to Houston. It looks like a good trade on the surface, even for a rental, but I'm not sure how much Houston has actually improved in their deals with Oakland, KC, and the Mets.

The net effects of the Astros' two recent deals are the addition of Beltran and reliever David Weathers, and the subtraction of closer Octavio Dotel, outfielder Richard Hidalgo, and some fairly choice prospects.

The prospects are the price to be paid for a relatively aged core. Biggio, Bagwell, Kent and Clemens are all getting on in years, so the window is closing a little for the Astros. A now-first attitude is probably the correct one for Houston.

Beltran is a big upgrade defensively and on the basepaths. With Beltran in place, Biggio can move to left, and Beltran will track down considerably more than a game but limited-range (for a CF, anyways) Biggio. And Beltran in the 2- or 3-hole brings both power and speed to the top of the Astros' order. Beltran is a career 85% base stealer, 164 SB vs. 23 CS in about 800 games.

But I was a little surprised that Hidalgo actually has a slight edge in career OBP (.355 vs. .352) and SLG (.500 vs. .483) over Beltran. Now it's true that the 2004 Hidalgo is a pale shadow of the 2004 Beltran, but Beltran has never slugged .636 like Hidalgo did in 2000. Beltran has been the more steady performer, though, with three straight .500+ SLG seasons running and .534 clip so far this year. Perhaps Beltran can make a run a .600 SLG now that he plays his home games at Minute Maid Park.

The bullpen is a little weaker. Dotel + Brad Lidge may not be quite at the same level as Rivera + Wetteland for the '96 Yankees, but that pair is closer than Weathers + Lidge.

Bottom line is that the relievers only have about 40-50 more innings to pitch, whereas Beltran will be playing pretty much every inning of all of the Astros' 90 or so remaining games. If he can help take the Astro to a World Series it'll probably be worth it, and if somehow the Astros can re-sign him after the season that would make up for the loss of their prospects.

posted by Tom Renbarger 7:19 PM