Monday, May 10, 2004
Untrammeled Speculation About Mark Prior
As I wrote yesterday, Mark Prior is scheduled to make a June 4 comeback. Prior threw 45 pitches in three simulated innings earlier today. This is the way his rehab schedule is shaping up:
May 1 - 15 pitches
May 5 - 30 pitches
May 10 - 45 pitches
May 15 - 60 pitches
May 20 - 75 pitches
May 25 - Rehab #1
May 30 - Rehab #2
June 4 - Start vs. Pirates
I have to wonder whether he will need both a 5-inning simulated game and two rehab starts. Let's take a look at the Cubs' schedule with projected starters.
May 11 @ LA - Wood
May 12 @ LA - Clement
May 13 @ LA - Zambrano
May 14 @ SD - Maddux
May 15 @ SD - Mitre
May 16 @ SD - Wood
May 17
May 18 vs. SF - Clement
May 19 vs. SF - Zambrano
May 20 vs. SF - Maddux
May 21 vs. STL - Mitre
May 22 vs. STL - Wood
May 23 vs. STL - Clement
May 24
May 25 @ HOU - Zambrano
May 26 @ HOU - Maddux
May 27
May 28 @ PIT - Mitre
May 29 @ PIT - Wood
May 30 @ PIT - Clement
May 31 vs. HOU - Zambrano
June 1 vs. HOU - Maddux
June 2 vs. HOU - Mitre
June 3
June 4 vs. PIT - PRIOR
This scenario has Sergio Mitre making another four starts, including starts against St. Louis and Houston. With those off days towards the end of May, I can see Mitre getting bounced from the rotation.
Also worth keeping in mind is that Prior was placed on the 60-day disabled list retroactive to March 26, so he'd be eligible for the active roster as early as May 26. This presents some intriguing opportunities with a slightly accelerated recovery schedule. For instance:
May 28 @ PIT - Wood
May 29 @ PIT - Clement
May 30 @ PIT - PRIOR
May 31 vs. HOU - Zambrano
June 1 vs. HOU - Maddux
June 2 vs. HOU - Wood
June 3
June 4 vs. PIT - Clement
This drops Mitre from the lineup two starts earlier and keeps Prior on his rehab schedule, albeit with one less rehab start. The question is, if he's ready to throw a second rehab start, do you want him and a possible 90-pitch limit to go against Class A hitters or the Pirates?
The thing to look for is the date of Prior's first rehab start. It's conceivable that he could be deemed ready on May 20 for a rehab start, in which case he could have two rehab starts by skipping the 5-inning simulation. Alternatively he could have the full simulation routine but have only one rehab start if he gains enough confidence in his breaking stuff in that amount of time.
Of course, starting June 4 the Cubs play 17 games in 17 days, so the Cubs could very well use the off days they get in May to keep their top four active starters rested for that stretch. Only time will tell, now.
posted by Tom Renbarger 9:54 PM
