TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Sunday, May 30, 2004

Hot Bats at the Hot Corner

The Cubs did everything they could to make Pirates 3B (and proud new papa) Rob Mackowiac an All-Star, surrendering three homers and 11 RBI to him in the first three games of their series. And they might have succeeded, except that it's already a crowded field.

The frontrunners at this point have to be the Cards' Scott Rolen (.339/.398/.610, 12 HR, 50 RBI, and 29 R through Saturday's games) and the Marlins' Mike Lowell (.344/.425/.672, and 14/30/34 through Sat.). With Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds hitting in front of him, Rolen should be able to get 70 RBI by the break standing on his head (and is a decent bet for 80), and he's a Gold Glover to boot. Lowell will get plenty of chances to shine with Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo in front of him and Miguel Cabrera behind him.

Next in line would be the Cubs' Aramis Ramirez (.300/.348/.558 and 11/39/34 through Sat.) and the Dodgers' Adrian Beltre (.311/.337/.557 and 12/34/27 through Sat.). Ramirez drove in two today and Beltre had a 2-run double in the first against the D-Backs, so the beat goes on for them. Ramirez has moved up to the cleanup spot in the Cubs' lineup while Sammy Sosa has been hurt without missing a beat, and when Sosa comes back, look for Ramirez to make hay in the 5-hole as he did before Sammy got hurt. Beltre has been playing hurt all year, and his continued success will depend on his playing through pain, the return to health of Dave Roberts, and a return to form for Shawn Green and Milton Bradley.

And then there's Mackowiac, who has put up a .284/.356/.572 and 11/31/25 through Saturday. He's probably #5 on the list right now, but if he tosses in another 8-10 HRs by the break and some of the guys in front of him tail off or get hurt, he could sneak in there. I'd still bet on two (or maybe all three) of Rolen, Lowell, and Ramirez to make the cut this season.

5/31 Update

I plum forgot about Vinny Castilla, who should certainly be in the mix, though his power numbers are inflated by playing at Coors. You can take a look at Castilla's stats and splits and see the .450 disparity between his home and road OPS. Without looking at the other guys above, I think it's a good bet that none of them come close to this sort of home/road imbalance. We'll put Vinny at 5b for now, and assume that it'll be Todd Helton that goes to the ASG for the Rockies.

posted by Tom Renbarger 5:54 PM