TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Saturday, May 22, 2004

Bobby Thigpen Beware?

Since Scott Podsednik has been scuffling a bit lately, I'm going to turn my attention to another early season anomaly, namely, Danny Graves's 20th save.

What's equally amazing is that Graves has blown four saves as well. That means in the Reds' first 42 games, Graves has had 24 save opportunities (in 25 appearances). He should have at least 22 saves by the end of the month, and maybe as many as 25.

Can he keep it up? From 1999-2002, Graves had 75, 66, 66, and 68 appearances. Right now he's on pace for 96 appearances, but that won't happen. He could get 75-80 appearances, though. For reference, Thigpen saved 57 in 77 appearances in 1990, for a White Sox team that went 94-68.

So he can make the appearances necessary. Will his teammates give him the opportunities he needs to turn the trick? Right now the Reds are 24-18, in a three-way tie for first in the NL Central. But the Reds have actually been outscored 197-206 in their first 42 games. They "should" be basically a .500 team the rest of the way, and that's assuming their frontline players remain healthy.

If two of Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, and Ken Griffey Jr. can stay healthy to man the middle of the lineup with Sean Casey, and Barry Larkin can keep up his mini-rejuvenation in his last year, the Reds should be good for another 55-60 wins. I'll let the readers judge for themselves how likely this will be. If the Reds suffer injuries to either their sluggers or their already thin rotation, they might struggle to win 70 by season's end. Graves won't save 58 in that case.

Am I being too hard on the Reds? After all, they've kept up with the Astros and Cubs for 42 games, so why not for another 120? As I mentioned, the Reds have actually been outscored 197-206 in their 42 games. By contrast, Houston has scored 233 and given up 172 runs, and the Cubs have a 206-160 edge against their opponents. If similar rates are maintained, that's going to sort itself out in the long run, and it's not even factoring in the Cubs' temporary injuries (they should get Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Kent Mercker, Ryan Dempster and Sammy Sosa off the DL in the next few weeks) or the fact that some of the Reds' main guys are injury prone in their own right. As interesting as it would be for Graves to put up 58+ saves, I just don't see it.

posted by Tom Renbarger 10:38 PM