TDA Bullpen - Our Writers' Blog

Friday, April 02, 2004

My turn I guess...

NL EAST Three teams worth looking at here. It's hard to remember back to when the Braves were not good, but ~90 games of JD Drew will not replace Shef, and that's not even thinking about Maddux. Braves fans never showed up for the first round of playoff games, and this year the Braves will make that even easier for them. Florida will be interesting. I think that even they were surprised by their success last year, and actually take my hat off to them for still being in a quasi-"building for the future" mode even though they've had the ultimate success. But I wonder what the old man will do to the young arms. The crystal ball says there will be some pitch count issues in Fishland. That leaves us with the Phillies, who have a new ballpark and Jim Thome. Even though they boo Santa, Christmas is coming early to the City of Brotherly Love.

NL Central Prior's arm is starting to worry me. Not big worries, but more like "did this franchise learn anything from their Kerry Wood adventure?" The team is deep enough that losing one guy, even a Prior or a Sammy, won't destroy them. On the other hand, the squad was powered by some amazing play by ex-Pirates down the stretch last season, and that's lightning that won't be caught in a bottle twice. The Astros may or may not catch the Cubs. For crying out loud, Clemens and Maddux are #3 men in these rotations, but whoever doesn't win the Central should take the wildcard. Fans in St. Louis will be able to enjoy the greatness that is Albert Pujols.

NL West It seems to be in fashion to say that the Padres will win the division. It's hard to say. I don't think it will be the D-Backs, the Big Unit isn't getting any younger, and I don't think that the addition of Big Sexy will be as big a boost as Arizona fans think it is. My big interest here is how fast ex-Stanford stud Carlos Quentin will rise through the system. The Dodgers will be an interesting case when they apply large-budget constraints to the Moneyball equation, but it won't happen overnight. Barry Bonds take his place as the all-time walks leader this season, but I don't see enough pop batting behind him to make that worthwhile. That and their best starter isn't bouncing back from surgery as fast as the Giants want. Dismissing the Rockies, that leaves us with the Padres. Of course, in any of these "they will win it because everyone else isn't up to snuff", it's all a crapshoot. Anybody but the Rockies...

AL East I'm thinking Yankees here. Pedro will spend enough time on the DL to make this so. A-Rod can hit .340 and bomb out 50, but if the Yankees don't win the East he'll be the one that is crucified.

AL Central See my comments about the NL West. They think you are a wuss if you don't go out on a limb at least once, so I'm picking the Chicago White Sox. In a season that will set back the acceptance of Sabermetrics for years, Ozzie Guillen's squad will be driven by "scrappy baseball". The team will finish last in OBP and OPS and yet will somehow finish in first. Frank Thomas will be benched in April for not being able to bunt into a hat 19 times out of 20 in practice, but will bounce back and lead the league in sacrifices. OK, if that doesn't happen, take the Twins.

AL West The Angels, A's or Mariners? I'm not sold on Colon, and Vlad's back is kind of iffy. The Moneyball tactics work well when you are the only bidder, but once a few GMs know to grab high-OPB players, there aren't any steals left. Sooner or later Billy Beane will have to spend money. Don't forget the Mariners though, they've still got a lot of fire power.

posted by David 7:26 AM