Braves - Astros Playoff Series Preview

This has been a great season for both Houston and Atlanta, for very similar reasons.  After nearly reaching their first World Series last year, the Astros got off to a horrendous start in 2005. While their pitching was good, their offense was putrid over the first two months of the season and, combined with the Cardinals' onslaught, they fell far behind in the National League Central. Meanwhile, pre-season pundits roundly predicted that this would finally be the season the Braves fell back to earth and were supplanted by either the Marlins or Phillies in the improving National League East. Outfielder J.D. Drew was not re-signed, the three-headed left field platoon of Charles Thomas, Eli Marrero and Dewayne Wise were all traded in separate deals, and 60 percent of the starting rotation - Russ Ortiz, Jaret Wright and Paul Byrd - were allowed to walk away, taking 38 wins with them. The best they seemed to be able to do was to sign a couple of baseball senior citizens named Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi to flank Andruw Jones in the outfield. For once, it appeared the experts may have been correct, and they looked like veritable Solomons shortly after the season began. It seemed that just about everyone came up injured - Chipper Jones, the team's overall best player; both catchers, Johnny Estrada and Eddie Perez; starting pitchers John Thomson and Mike Hampton, in addition to newly-acquired All-Star Tim Hudson; relief pitchers Kevin Gryboski and Jay Powell. Neither Jordan nor Mondesi hit very well, and both definitely showed their age out in the field. And Dan Kolb, brought in to simply pitch the ninth inning (which allowed John Smoltz to return to the starting rotation), pitched more like a frightened rookie than a 2004 All Star and blew numerous saves in April and May.

So how come these two are meeting in the National League Division Series? The Astros were able to muster enough offense when Lance Berkman returned from an off-season injury. He helped to stabilize a lineup that included an improved third baseman Morgan Ensberg, having a breakout year, old pro Craig Biggio and budding star Jason Lane. This quartet's 112 home runs, added to the tremendous starting pitching of Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Roy Oswalt and the relief work of Brad Lidge (41 saves), provided the impetus that led to re-claiming the wild card berth on the season's final day.

For Atlanta, their turnaround came when, like the cavalry in some of those old Westerns, the farm system began sending reinforcements. Wilson Betemit stepped in for Chipper Jones and batted .300. Brian McCann came up from Double-A and took charge behind the plate. Ryan Langerhans, Jeff Francoeur and Kelly Johnson brought young legs to the outfield and timely, often explosive bats to the lineup. Kyle Davies won seven games while Blaine Boyer and Macay McBride both contributed out of the bullpen. In all, seventeen rookies played at Turner Field this season, a figure you would normally equate with a losing team looking to the future, not a club trying to win a division title.

And as he has done in the past, General Manager John Schuerholz did his job, too. In spring training he acquired a young pitcher from Tampa Bay named Jorge Sosa, figuring he would bolster the bullpen. When the starting staff became decimated, Manager Bobby Cox handed the ball to Sosa almost out of desperation, and then kept throwing him out there until he wound up with 13 wins. When Kolb imploded, Chris Reitsma stepped up from setup man to closer, and when he eventually needed help, Schuerholz brought in flame-throwing Kyle Farnsworth, who claimed the closer's job with saves in each of his ten opportunities.  The Braves took control shortly before the All-Star Game, and for the 14th consecutive season (ignore strike-marred 1994, please), Atlanta captured their division.

So it will be a battle of two survivors, but I think the results will be the same as last year, when Houston defeated Atlanta in five games. Everyone knows that Andruw Jones had the kind of year people have long been predicting for him, leading the league in homers and RBI, but I'm not sure he will be able to carry the team much further. The first four batters in the order - shortstop Rafael Furcal, second baseman Marcus Giles, and the Jones boys - are offensive forces, but the next four slots have been spotty all year long.  First baseman Adam LaRoche generally bats fifth, behind Andruw, and despite his twenty homers he is not really a strong #5 hitter. Jeff Francoeur may prove to be the next Dale Murphy, but since his explosive first month in the majors, pitchers have learned to keep the ball away from him. It is gospel in baseball that "good pitching stops good hitting," so if you have great pitching, like Houston does, what happens to fair hitting? Oh, and before you answer, please factor in poor middle relief and a continuing shoulder injury to Smoltz, and you ought to get a second consecutive win for Phil Garner and his Astros.

But they don't play the game on paper, so after two games in Atlanta, I will be back with a recap and further analysis. Enjoy the games!