Does This Guy Belong in Cooperstown?

By David Marasco

I'd like to take a look at a recent retiree from baseball, Joe Tenor. He was a first baseman who broke into the game with a strong season in 1988. Early in his career he was traded to the American League, and while he enjoyed a good defensive reputation, he spent a decent amount of time at DH as his body aged. Here are his stats:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO
1988	159	584	87	160	32	7	24	100	85	82
1989	150	548	80	173	31	5	13	92	66	69
1990	152	588	89	174	33	8	21	89	48	82
1991	144	546	93	181	42	2	8	51	89	32
1992	158	609	89	195	36	7	12	89	73	66
1993	160	636	121	211	37	5	22	111	77	71
1994	111	436	82	139	32	0	23	76	54	63
1995	127	385	60	115	19	1	24	63	70	45
1996	161	635	118	207	29	1	44	143	95	154
1997	157	601	112	193	42	3	26	87	83	87
1998	131	452	81	148	29	1	28	89	44	108
1999	142	457	93	126	23	0	35	111	101	129
2000	137	496	82	149	32	4	34	108	52	113
2001	160	600	98	164	33	0	37	123	101	90
2002	138	518	92	156	28	0	32	91	44	108
2003	142	481	83	135	24	0	30	101	93	110
2004	162	584	109	174	34	2	31	108	88	103
Total	2491	9156	1569	2800	536	46	444	1632	1263	1512

Not a bad career. 2800 hits over 17 years, decent but not great homer numbers, the same can be said for his walks. A borderline Hall-of-Famer perhaps, but given his era and the fact that he played first, certainly not inner-circle. With 1632 RBIs Joe Tenor would have the most RBIs for a man not in the Hall of Fame. Still, if he wasn't in Cooperstown, it wouldn't be an outrage.

Of course, Joe Tenor is a made-up player. His career is made up of the tenth-place finishers in OPS in the NL in 1988 and the AL from 1989 through 2004. In other words, these guys:

1988 Bobby Bonilla
1989 Julio Franco
1990 Ellis Burks
1991 Wade Boggs
1992 Paul Molitor
1993 Paul Molitor
1994 Rafael Palmeiro
1995 Harold Baines
1996 Mo Vaughn
1997 Rusty Greer
1998 Eric Davis
1999 John Jaha
2000 Carl Everett
2001 Rafael Palmeiro
2002 Ellis Burks
2003 Jorge Posada
2004 Hideki Matsui

Why engage in this exercise? Well, it has to do with one of those guys on the list, Palmeiro. He's motored his was past 3000 hits, and with those 500 home runs, he's going to the Hall of Fame. But there has been quite a bit of talk swirling around his assumed induction. Over his entire career he's lead the league in hits once, in runs once and doubles once. Not a lot of black ink for a Hall of Famer. It's hard to make the argument that he was the best player at his position for any amount of time. More or less his main argument is that he was very good for a very long time. So let's look at his numbers compared to the tenth-best hitter in the league (therefore roughly the 20th best hitter in baseball) over the heart of his career.

Here are the numbers again. I truncated out Palmeiro's first two seasons which were partials, and the current year:

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO
Tenor	2491	9156	1569	2800	536	46	444	1632	1263	1512
Palmeiro	2615	9809	1575	2843	553	37	534	1733	1286	1273

One thing we can see is that Palmeiro had a bit more playing time. People finishing tenth in OPS tended to be older star players on their way out, or stars with nagging injuries. Both tend to depress games played. This gives Palmeiro an edge in counting stats. What pops out is Palmeiro's edge in homers. Does that make the difference between boarderline-HOF and a much stronger case? Well, Palmeiro did contribute more outs to go with the additional homers. Let's look at the rate stats:

Tenor	.306	.520	.390
Palmeiro	.290	.517	.372

While Palmeiro can put up a shiny homer total, Joe Tenor actually has better rate stats over his career.

Now it comes down to a philosophical discussion. Should a player be enshrined for being the 20th best hitter in the league for nearly two decades? Or should Cooperstown only honor the players who were the best of the best? Rafael is hoping that you believe the former.