St. Louis Cardinals 2006 Season Preview

By Eric Butterman

But it isn't just the losses that should have Cardinal fans worried, but one of the additions. If the New York Mets thought their NL pennant chances increased dramatically by replacing horrendous closer Braden Looper with dependable-as-they-come Billy Wagner, they're doing cartwheels over St. Louis deciding to give Looper a shot. One isn't sure if a tight leash will need to be applied to Looper, or a noose, releasing him early if St. Louis finds him in similar form to last year's eight blown saves. Sure, he's not the closer this time, but games can be lost long before all-star Jason Isringhausen ever takes the mound. However, if "Izzy" does get in enough times with the lead, 100 wins suddenly doesn't seem so far out of reach, especially since St. Louis has been smart enough to limit his innings, having him pitch less than 60 in 2005. Consider how he looked compared to a dog-tired Brad Lidge in the Houston-St. Louis NLCS last postseason, and it becomes clear how important it is not to overexert your stopper.

But more than anything, it was the improvement in the starting staff last year that rounded out this ballclub. Even more encouraging is the fact that Mark Mulder wasn't nearly at his best. 16-8 with a 3.64 ERA would be a dream season for many, but for someone who's been a perennial Cy Young contender and on a team that gives you all the run support you could ask for, 20 wins should be more than a goal, it should be a reasonable expectation. That takes us to what isn't a reasonable expectation. It's not reasonable to believe Jeff Suppan could go 16-10 again with an ERA lower than Mulder's was. It's also not reasonable to expect that the oft-injured Chris Carpenter will win 21 games again, take another Cy Young and duplicate his seven complete games, saving the bullpen from dead-arm depletion. Also, can you really expect Al Reyes to give you another relief campaign with an ERA almost under 2? This seems even more unlikely to happen since Reyes is coming off an elbow injury that kept him out of last year's postseason.

And an even larger worry in all the pitching staff questions would be Matt Morris: Is losing him saying goodbye to a Cardinal staple or welcoming an addition by subtraction? Once a 22-game winner who put up more than 100 W's in his St. Louis career, Morris' mouth also had publicist's working overtime and had Tony LaRussa putting out fires instead of concentrating on lineup cards. Still, if you were looking for an A.J. Pierzynski comeback story for 2006, Morris ironically could do it in San Francisco, the very place that declared the former a clubhouse cancer. Rest assured, if the Cardinals falter and Morris regains his ace-like stuff, it's St. Louis GM Walt Jocketty who will have his own fires to take care of.

No Holes in Edmonds and Pujols
While there are many doubts for the Cardinals going into 2006, there's little doubt that they can count on Albert Pujols and Jim Edmonds to do more of the same damage they've been unleashing together for half a decade. Pujols has averaged more than 40 homers since his rookie year, including topping that coveted power mark in his 2005 MVP performance. Edmonds saw his batting average take a dive last year to his lowest total since arriving in St. Louis, but with an OPS still above .900 and a glove that continued to find the ball the way Barry Bonds finds boos, he's still considered an all-star caliber player.

Speaking of all-stars, a few years ago Junior Spivey was considered a can't-miss prospect with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Well, the "can't" part has been removed from that label, yet even four years removed from his 2002 all-star performance, the possibility remains that he could have an Eckstein-like resurrection. Worst-case scenario, Spivey will add a much-needed bat to the bench and could find extra motivation from being back on a championship-caliber team, winning a World Series with Arizona during his rookie year.

The signing of pitcher Sidney Ponson throws more into the mix than just whether he can return to being a 17-game winner. Ponson's off-field troubles with the law make him more than a question mark - in fact, they could actually make him more of a liability than Matt Morris ever was. Known for having weight problems as well as control problems (48 walks to only 68 strikeouts in '05), you'd have to say this could be Ponson's last chance to prove he's a winner. And that's not just referring to on the field.

They'll Manage
The manager for St. Louis will be the same as it's been since 1996 when LaRussa took his team within one victory of the World Series. Back then, he was being hailed as one of the greatest managers ever. But the next decade has only seen one Cardinal World Series appearance, getting swept at the hands of the hex-ending Red Sox, so you'd have to say the jury's still out on how good of a National League manager LaRussa really is. Though his ticket to Cooperstown has long been punched, it will take a championship to make St. Louis fans forget the days of Whitey Herzog, a time when a World Series appearance wasn't an unexpected surprise but a forgone conclusion.

In my opinion, the amnesia could well begin. In the face of many ifs - if there's one National League team to take to win it all, it has to be St. Louis. Two years ago, they had a healthy Rolen going into the postseason but lost Carpenter to injury. Result: the aforementioned World Series debacle. Last year, a healthy Carpenter for the playoffs but no Rolen to be found. Result: the aforementioned NLCS loss in six games. This time? Maybe both players will find the surgical table, but you always have to assume health over physical implosion. Despite this, I still think the New York Yankees will have enough to stop the Cardinals from winning their first World Series title since 1982. But if St. Louis faces anyone else, it should be theirs.

Eric Butterman is a New York-based sports and fitness writer who has written for Men's Fitness, Shape and numerous other publications.