San Diego Padres 2006 Season Preview

by Anthony Mrse

Not unlike the airways of any other U.S. city featuring an MLB team, the San Diego radio station that airs Padre games plays a fairly typical series of commercials that homers the local team's upcoming year. However, one specific commercial manages to stand out from the rest. In a particular radio spot, Padre CEO Sandy Alderson clearly states that the Padres "are on a mission to bring more championship to San Diego." Upon hearing this, I leaned back and thought, "really?" In the context of the commercial, Alderson somewhat ambiguously refers to a championship as a first place finish in the NL West. Given the roster for the upcoming year, that task would be within the realm of possibility, albeit non-trivial, as the other teams in the division seem stronger whereas the Padre's roster is no more talented than it was at this time last year. However, extrapolating further, if Alderson means to include the NL pennant, or even more far fetched, a World Series title, in the mission for more championships, that's a completely different thing... and completely unlikely anytime soon. After a season that bettered mediocrity by the slimmest of margins, the Padres got squarely punched in the face by an obviously superior St. Louis Cardinal team in the 2005 NLDS. The Cardinal series sweep proved that San Diego was a ways away from competing with the other teams that qualified for the postseason. The series also brought to light a lack of superstar power, the acquisition of which has remained an unfulfilled promise by owner John Moores. The Padre's off-season moves have positioned them to have a foundation to build on, but have done little to push them past mediocrity as an organization for the upcoming year.

The key off-season transaction for the Padres was the acquisition of Chris Young, Adrian Gonzalez, and Terrmel Sledge from Texas in exchange for Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka. No doubt, this deal will prove to be a tremendous boon for the Padres. Young provides a youthful arm and is a legitimate #2 starter behind ace Jake Peavy. Gonzalez, a the number one overall pick in the 2000 amateur draft, should become a cornerstone in the Padre's lineup for years to come. Considering that the main Padre casualty in the deal, Adam Eaton, may require three months of in-season recovery after hand surgery, San Diego made out with two future headliners at a bargain price.

While the trade with the Rangers will have the most long-lasting effects, the off-season deal that made the biggest splash in San Diego was the signing of free agent Mike Piazza. Ushered by the loss of Ramon Hernandez to the Baltimore Orioles, the signing fits a bizarre Padre trend of signing former LA Dodgers that are past their prime. Mike Piazza will join ex-Dodgers Chan Ho Park, Dave Roberts and Eric Young on this year's roster. With Piazza, the Padres gain an experienced clean-up hitter who should help stabilize the roles of the other members of the lineup.

Now that the Sean Burroughs experiment is officially over, the Padres decided to move Brian Lawrence to Washington in exchange for the services of third baseman Vinny Castilla. Despite being a solids innings eater over the past 5 seasons, the Padres and fans alike grew tired of watching Lawrence's performance regress every year since his first in 2001. Considering that Lawrence is expected to miss the entire 2006 season due to shoulder problems, the price for Castilla was right. However, as a solution to the Padre's long-term third base woes, Castilla is not the answer. At 38 years old, Castilla's best years are behind him, and while he still can bring the leather, he should be considered not much more than a fill-in while the Friar faithful await a permanent solution.

Rumors that the Padres have been looking to add Mike Cameron to the roster have been circulating in the press for a few years. The idea was that a player with Cameron's speed and athleticism would be perfect to patrol the expansive space of Petco Park's center field. On November 18 2005, the Padres turned rumor into reality by trading former All American and UC Berkeley standout Xavier Nady to the Mets for Cameron. Cameron adds another potential 20 homerun right-handed bat to the San Diego lineup. With up-the-middle defense at a forefront, the Padres have also added their top minor league prospect, Josh Barfield, to the roster. Playing second base, he should provide quickness and range to the position. Calling Barfield up did require moving incumbent All-Star second baseman Mark Loretta. In a very unpopular off-season move, Loretta was sent packing to Boston for back-up catcher Doug Mirabelli.

With the roster now in place, here is a look at the 2006 Padres by position:

Starting rotation: Jake Peavy returns as the ace of the staff. Clearly one of the leagues best pitchers, Peavy has both strikeout and ERA titles to his credit. With enough run support, Peavy could challenge for Cy Young honors for years to come. 6'10" Chris Young leaves one of the most notorious hitters parks, Ameriquest Field, for the pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park. As one of the more extreme fly-ball pitchers in the majors, Young will benefit greatly from both Petco Park's large dimensions and Mike Cameron's defense in center field. Lefty Shawn Estes should provide close to 200 innings and be a serviceable #3 starter. While Dewan Brazelton started the season in the rotation after a promising spring training, two horrendous regular season outings sent him back to the bullpen. After his demotion, Woody Williams, Clay Hensley or Chan Ho Park will fill the last two slots in the rotation. Hensley's ERA in 2005 was a notable 2.99 pitching at AAA Portland. More impressive was that he limited opposing offences to less than one base runner per inning pitched (0.94 WHIP).

Bullpen: Without question, the single greatest strength of the 2005 Padres was the bullpen. Hoffman once again proved why he is one of the premier closers in baseball by notching 43 saves. With Scott Linebrink, Akinori Otsuka, and Hoffman handling the last three inning of work, a Win was almost a sure thing. If the game was tied or close, manager Bruce Bochy had both Rudy Seanez and Chris Hammond to provide valuable inning. The concern for 2006 is that of the five pitchers mentioned, only Hoffman and Linebrink remain. Filling in for the departed relievers are Alan Embree, Dewan Brazelton, and Brian Sweeney. Among the three, none have a career ERA below 4.0. If the present core of pitchers is unable to keep the game within reach, the Padres will be forced to acquire another middle reliever midseason to recapture some of the late inning effectiveness enjoyed by last year's squad.

Catcher: With newly acquired Mike Piazza, the Padres add a right-handed bat who can hit between Giles and Gonzales or Klesko, and a catcher who has worked with some of the most successful pitchers in this era. However, Piazza's presence in the lineup may not be as much of an improvement as hoped. Comparing Piazza's 2005 numbers to those of former Padre backstop Ramon Hernandez shows a very similar OBP and SLG, and Piazza's defensive abilities are a clear downgrade. Also Piazza is 38 versus Hernandez's 30, which could translate into more games for back-up Doug Mirabelli. Only time tell if the some of the intangibles provided by Piazza's experience will manifest themselves as positives.

Infield: First base will be handled by Adrian Gonzalez to start the season. Ryan Klesko was originally slated as the opening day first baseman, but opted to have surgery on his ailing shoulder. Gonzalez hit .338 at AAA Oklahoma in the PCL, and is an outstanding defensive first baseman. As Klesko is expected to be out until the summer, Gonzalez will have an excellent opportunity to wrestle away the starting first base role. Josh Barfield, the son of the former 13 year major leaguer Jesse Barfield, managed to beat out Mark Bellhorn for the everyday job at second base. Khalil Greene returns at SS for his 3rd season with the Padres. The flashy shortstop has become the second most popular player in San Diego behind only Trevor Hoffman. Greene set a club record for extra base hits last season, and his 15 homeruns were good for 2nd best in the National League among shortstops. With a fast start this year, he should exceed last year's numbers and top 20 homeruns. The venerable Vinny Castilla will man third base.

Outfield: The Padres hoped to have an outfield of Brian Giles, Mike Cameron, and Dave Roberts ready to go on opening day. Unfortunately, an oblique injury sidelined Cameron for the first several weeks, so the Padres have been starting newly acquired Terrmel Sledge in left and have shifted Roberts back to his 2005 centerfield. Where Cameron will fit in the Padre's lineup is uncertain. Given his speed, proficiency at base stealing (83% over the last two seasons), and the absence of Loretta, he will most likely be hitting in the two spot. However, Cameron strikes out often, and has a very mediocre lifetime OBP (.340), making him better suited for the bottom half of the order. Regardless where he ends up hitting, his defensive prowess will benefit the Padres greatly. Widely regarded as one of the top outfielders in the game, Cameron lead all centerfielders in putouts and range factor in 2003. Brian Giles, the top hitter in the Padre organization returns to right field in 2006. Giles got off to a terribly slow start last season, batting just .202 in the month of April. He rectified things by batting .319 the rest of the way and finished with a .423 OBP and 119 BB, good for 4th and 1st in baseball.

Padre 2006 season record prediction: 78-84