Seattle Mariners 2005 Season Preview

By Paul Wysard

Jamie Moyer is a caricature of himself: finesse pitcher, medium-to-slow, location/location, the "crafty lefty." He sneaks up on both opponents and the record books. It is the 6th or 7th inning and enemy batters think they have had good swings and look forward to more, but the scoreboard shows them trailing 4-1 or 5-3, and no one is quite sure how they got there.

His career has also reflected the same stealth. Most fans are not aware that he needs only eight more wins to reach 200, and only about 100 other men have gone that far. He started slowly, was slapped around and shopped around in his 20s, learned from that old school of hard knocks, and became one of the game's better pitchers in his later 30s. There is a much smaller group of hurlers which Moyer could join this coming season, and you have probably never thought about it because it has never been covered as far as can be determined here. It is another "40-40" Club, not that of 40 homeruns and steals, but those who have won at least 40 Major League games after reaching age 40.

When the concept of this coterie was mentioned to a son and his friends, the response was, "Oh, yeah, you could find some guys like that who pitched forever 'way back in the day." Initially, the observation made sense; one thinks of Cy Young or Walter Johnson or Pud Galvin or "Old Hoss" Radbourn, whose nickname creates an image of an ancient warrior snuffing out batters 20 years younger. But the image is a mirage; "back-in-the-day" pitchers were put out to pasture a lot earlier than their descendants have been in more recent years. Of the four icons mentioned above, only Young pitched at or after 40, and only two other members of this club were on the mound before 1930. The additions of Moyer and Roger Clemens to the roster would leave more than one-half of it consisting of folks who did the trick since 1980.

The players and the numbers:

Name	Record After 40	Era	Comments
Phil Niekro	121-103	1980s	One 20-win season
Jack Quinn	96-80	1924-33	Two World Series
Cy Young	76-60	1907-11	Two 20-win seasons
Warren Spahn	75-63	1960s	Two 20-win seasons
Nolan Ryan	71-66	1987-93	Two No-Hit Games
Hoyt Wilhelm	51-47	1963-72	125 Saves
Gaylord Perry	47-59	1980s	Only losing record here
Grover Alexander	46-30	1927-30	One 20-win season & One World Series
Don Sutton	44-38	1980s	Two 15-win seasons

With all of this successful longevity, it will not surprise the reader to realize that all members of the group won 300 or more games except Quinn and Wilhelm, who nevertheless were around the longest, each earning a save at age 49.

Roger Clemens went 35-13 during the 2003 and 2004 campaigns. He also won 13 times in 2002, in August of which he turned 40. Neither the time nor the tools were available to ascertain whether any of those 13 victories took place after his birthday, and so he is either a member of the group today or will be when the coming season is still young.

Moyer's 40s slate is 28-20, and, unless he has faded much more rapidly than is believed here, he should be able to muster at least the necessary 12 wins to join the club. How much help will he have in his quest? Last year's attack featured Ichiro Suzuki's 262 hits, but little else. Free agents Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson have come aboard to hit in the third and fourth slots, and that should help to re-ignite Bret Boone's production.

This lineup should score more runs for Moyer and colleagues than that of 2004:

Ichiro Suzuki, rf - No reason to believe this slasher will not have 240-250 hits.

Jeremy Reed, cf - Speedy rookie could mean even more runs, but is unproven.

Adrian Beltre, 3b - Even 90 % of last year's power numbers would be a Godsend.

Richie Sexson, 1b - This guy can hit 45 HR, but maybe not with 81 games at home.

Raul Ibanez, dh - Steady pro good for .275, 15, 75, but not a lot more.

Bret Boone, 2b - A hot start could move him up to 5th to protect Beltre and Sexson.

Randy Winn, lf - Trade talk hints this might be someone else eventually.

Miguel Olivo, c - Promising with 13 HR in 300 AB in 2004.

Pokey Reese, ss - Veteran glove man is probably a caretaker at this post.

Rotation: Bobby Madritsch is a fine prospect. Gil Meche, Joel Pineiro and Ryan Franklin so far not so. Closer Eddie Guardado was/ is hurting, so bears watching.

Prediction: Mariners could challenge Oakland for 3rd in the AL West. Higher finish not possible given the Angels' balance and the Rangers' firepower.