Pittsburgh Pirates 2005 Season Preview

Oh, the crushing curse of the reality of demographics.

Woe the poor city of Pittsburgh, which, despite a reasonably thriving regional economy, is facing bankruptcy these days. The city's population is half what it was when Bill Mazeroski hit the celebrated walk-off homer to win the 1960 World Series. Fans have been harder and harder to rope in ever since. It seems that with the shift of the local economy from dirty manufacturing to clean education, medicine, and research, the local tax base has been drained away as tax-exempt non-profit organizations play an incrreasing role in city affairs. Without the power to tax commuters who come in from outside the city to work (and who use city services), local government just can't make ends meet.

One wonders if they now regret ponying up $300 million to pay for the beautiful but increasingly vacant PNC Park. When Three Rivers Stadium was built in the early 1970s, the adjoining land was to have been developed into a thriving commercial district to generate more tax revenues and thus pay for the project. On the day that Three Rivers was imploded, the city was still paying off the debt for its construction, and the adjoining lands were still parking lots.

So when the city leaders pimped the denizens of Pittsburgh for two new stadium facilities, the promise that they'd develop the adjoining area into commercial real estate seemed a bit hollow. "Trust us this time! We'll really do it this time!" they said. The Pirates, wallowing in the bottom of the division, threw in the big sweetener: if you build it, and you come, why, then we'll have the payroll and resources to build a winner. Because even in a bankrupt city, especially in a bankrupt city, you have to have sports franchise success to distract you. The Pirates promised a five-year plan to return to greatness.

The Steelers, playing in their new stadium on the other end of a string of empty parking lots from the Pirates, continue to show that it's not the size of the payroll but the quality of the management which determines sports success. While falling short of the Super Bowl, the Steelers remain consistently excellent under family management. The Pirates, under a partnership still headed by Californian Kevin McClatchy, have managed to use all that revenue from PNC Park to climb all the way out of the basement to fourth place in 2002 and 2003 and fifth place in 2004. The five-year plan has stretched out to a dozen-year streak of finishing below .500. After a spike to 2.4 million in the debut year of PNC Park, attendance has dropped right back to almost exactly the same level as at Three Rivers, and the club is near dead last in NL attendance, new park and all. The new Washington Nationals have already sold more tickets for the 2005 season than the Pirates did for all of 2004. And poor McClatchy seems befuddled by the fact that despite labor peace and revenue sharing and record industry-wide revenues, the Pirates still can't compete.

Oh Crank, you're saying, why are you going on about this again? Because it's the same old story for the suffering Pirates fans. The excuses are always the same -- crying poor-mouth as a mask for a bad baseball organization -- and the reality of the bad baseball demographics for Pittsburgh are immutable. The club might be able to win, as they suggest, if they all of a sudden had a Yankees payroll, but I have my doubts. In the meantime, the club is on a perennial cost-cutting romp that is aimed primarily at the bottom line and not at winning. As much as this pains this old season-ticket holder to say it, this is a major league franchise in a AAA-sized city with a AA-sized budget run by low-A-ball minds.

Which brings us to tbe big departure of the off-season, Jason Kendall. Kid Kendall was the heart and soul of the Pirates to the fans for nearly a decade of losing. He showed grit and unusual talents for getting on base and running well, especially for a catcher, and developed a strong relationship with the community and the common fan. The Pirates were gulled by this into signing him to a ridiculously large and long-term contract that saddled the team with extra payroll it couldn't afford. Kendall, despite his skills, became untradeable -- until this winter, when the reality of impending free agency finally prompted GM Dave Littlefield to turn the great Moneyball catcher over to the Moneyball franchise, the Oakland A's, for pitcher Mark Redman and a prospect.

The Pirates have been trying to churn talent for years now, and Kendall's departure is merely the climax of the club's dim understanding of the models of the Cleveland and Oakland franchises. While occasionally capturing lightning in a bottle -- such as getting the 30-something Brian Giles for a box of old peanuts -- the club hasn't managed to accumulate enough bargain-level youngsters or mid-level bargains to field a credible club.

Efforts to use the farm have proved equally fruitless. Just two of the Pirates' regulars in 2005 came up all the way through the Pirates' own farm. Vaunted prospects seem to always come up short and get cut (JJ Davis, for example, is now a National) or hurt (John van Benschoten, tiouted as a future ace, is out for the year, as is slugging catcher JR House with a torn labrum.) Something about the way the Buccos scout and choose guys, or use them in the minors, or both, seems to cause injury and ineffectiveness. The list of Pirates who have thrived after departing the Steel City suggests it's more than bad luck (Jason Schmidt, Denny Neagle, Esteban Loaiza, and Jon Lieber, to name a few.)

At the major league level, the players are still instructed by manager Llegendary Lloyd McCllendon, whose free-swinging philosophy produces the occasional flash but not winning teams. A classic case in point is current Pirate darling Jack Wilson, a scrappy but weak-hitting shortstop who won the silver slugger award at short last year with a nifty .308 average and a career-topping 11 homers. Wilson's a smart player but not selective at the plate; he walked an incredible 26 times in nearly 700 plate appearances last year, and his OBP of .335 was completely mediocre. Wilson is touted as a McClendon success story, of course. In the meantime, a genuine talent like Craig Wilson, who finally got a full year's worth of playing time in 2004 and hit 29 homers, has his fantastic OPS steadily eroded by imprecations to be more aggressive. The latter Wilson saw his strikeout total soar to 169, his walk rate decline by 20%, but his raw power numbers (but not his rates) increase -- another "success" story.

The one bright spot for 2004 was the first Pirates' Rookie of the Year, ever, Jason Bay, who in duty limited by injury to 120 games still muscled out 26 homers and a decent .358 OBP (.908 OPS). Bay was what the Pirates got for Brian Giles, so while they may be smacking their lips over a promising bargain, it must be pointed out that while he's much cheaper for the dollar than Giles, he's not nearly the player Giles is as yet. Bay will have to get a full season of at-bats in 2005 to see what he's really made of; he turns 27 this year.

The Wilsons and Bay are joined by a cast of mostly new teammates who've joined the club in dribs and drabs since early last year. In right, and probably leading off, is the light-hitting Twins refugee Matt Lawton. Lawton will remind Pirates fans of Andy van Slyke, minus about fifty batting average points, but Lawton can take a walk and is a good line-drive hitter with double-digit dinger power and a nice .370 career OBP. He's hardly a classic leadoff man, although he can steal 20 bags a season, and by comparison to most other starting outfielders he's below average. Lawton will be spelled by Rob Mackowiak, who put up nearly as decent numbers last year as Lawton in 155 games, and as a reward for his troubles will be riding the pine most of the time.

Jack Wilson will hit number two, followed by Bay and Craig Wilson. In the five hole will be Ty Wigginton at third. Wigginton has subpar power for a third sacker, subpar OBP, and average defense, but his salary is also subpar so that made him a fit for the Pirates when they traded Kris Benson to the Mets last year. Wigginton's 27 and still has some upside to be shaken out. In center and batting in the middle of the lineup will be that rarity, a homegrown player, Tike Redman. Redman has good range but so-so ball judgement skills, but his speed serves him well enough on the basepaths on Llegendary's club. He stole 18 sacks last year, but swiped 42 in AAA in 2003, so he has potential to move his game up a notch. The pathetic 23 walks in nearly 600 plate appearances and .310 OBP do not augur well for a guy with very little pop, though.

The bottom of the order will be the catcher's slot and shortstop Jose Castillo. With House out of the picture, the Pirates signed veteran Benito Santiago to shore up the pitching staff and add a little action to the batting lineup. The venerable Santiago is on his tenth major league team and is now 40. Benito is undoubtedly one of the great gamers of the last two decades, and a fine handler of pitchers, which is where his value to the Pirates lies. He's walked an average of once every five games in the last decade, and his .270ish average masks a lot of swinging and making outs. Splitting time with him is rookie Humberto Cota, a classic good-glove no-hit catcher. Cota's spent most of the last four years at AAA, most recently splitting time with the now-injured House. His MLE's (Major League Equivalencies) suggest he may be the worst-hitting catcher in the NL this year.

Finally the Pirates will field one of two "prospects" at second base, Jose Castillo or Freddy Sanchez. Castillo's been converted from shortstop in the high minors, and has some pop and a quick bat. Some minor league watchers have projected him to be a star in the bigs, but Castillo's had to repeat years at the same level in the minors to see any progress. This suggests he'll be a capable major league hitter, but probably not a star, and it will take a few years of seasoning to see results. So expect some struggles from him this year. Sanchez was a good B-level prospect in the Red Sox organization who came to the Buccos in 2003 but who has since struggled with injuries and to find playing time when healthy. Sanchez is very selective and makes excellent contact, and decent OBPs and gaudy batrting averages have followed himn through the minors. He's versatile on the field -- he can play short and third as well as second -- but that may relegate him to a utility role. If he's not in the starting lineup and Castillo is on opening day, Pirates fans may well take this as a sign that it's the same-old, same-old Pirates out there, going with a prospect with "star" labels and significant work to be done over a solid professional hitter who's ready now.

The rotation looks like Oliver Perez (stolen from San Diego in the Giles deal), Kip Wells and Josh Fogg (both White Sox refugees), Mark Redman (from Oakland in the Kendall deal), and one of Sean Burnett (a home-grown product!) or Ryan Vogelsong (the sop the Pirates got in the Jason Schmidt deal).

Perez is extremely promising. He's young (22), and coming off a year in which he finished sixth in the NL in ERA with a 2.98 ERA (admittedly helped a bit by PNC Park). He struck out 239 with a mid-90s fastball and a couple of different-look sliders. His walk and home run rates are still a bit on the high side, but all signs are good for continuing improvement. It's critical Perez shows well for two years in a row, and he will have the pressure of being a number one guy this year, but the Pirates may have snagged their cheap and young ace. Wells is still young enough (27) and had two fine back to back years in 2002 and 2003, with mid-3.00s ERA, but had an awful year in a 2004 beset by nagging injuries. Fogg got wracked around a lot last year, with a low strikeout rate but a not-terrible walk rate. He's got so-so stuff and it's not real clear where his career is going; if he got to league-average, the Pirates should consider themselves lucky. One rather thinks he's just holding down a spot for one of the many Pirates' pitching prospects. Redman comes highly-touted from Oakland, but he was a league-average pitcher there with ERAs in the low 4.00's. He'll likely look a bit better on paper in PNC Park, but at 30 there isn't a lot of cause for optimism that he'll suddenly blossom out. Burnett is a finesse pitcher who came up mid-year in 2004 after posting some smoking ERAs in the minors. Burnett got torched and blew out his elbow, and ended the year getting Tommy John surgery; his ETA isn't until mid to late season. He's still only 22, but I worry tremendously about pitchers with major injuries at this stage. That opens up the door for Vogelsong, who is out of options and will make the roster one way or another. Vogelsong's been pretty awful in the bigs, with no command and a very, very straight fast ball, and his 6.35 ERA in 195 big league innings shows that at 27 the clock is ticking down for him, even in the Pirates' organization. He may make Buccos fans nostalgic for Jimmy Anderson. Also possibly in the mix is Todd Ritchie, who was signed to a minor league contract after missing much of 2004 with Tampa Bay. Ritchie had exactly half of an outstanding major league season, in 2001, when he was previously with Pttsburgh, but has otherwise been awful. He now looks more like a slop man in the pen, though.

The bullpen is headed by Jose Mesa, who had an extra-fine comeback year with the Pirates last year and was among the league relief leaders. With lots of low-scoring games on the horizon, his save total will be pretty high. Whether Mesa can remain consistent at an advanced age is another thing altogether. After Mesa, the bullpen is a sorry mixture of never-wases and never-willbes. The two potential bright spots are Salomon Torres and Mike Gonzalez. Gonzalez is an eight-year minor league veteran of the Pirates' organization, who throws very hard and averages better than a strikeout per inning. He's a lefty, so will assume set-up duties, but could be a potential sleeper candidate for closer if/when Mesa blows up or departs. Torres was once a touted Giants' prospect who's now a ten-year veteran. He was seriously overworked in 2003, but in 2004 was used more judiciously and posted a fine 2.64 ERA. He'll be the righty set-up man and seems like he should do a good job.

The bench will be Mackowiak, Sanchez, Cota, Kevin Young clone Daryle Ward, former Cubs' prospect Bobby Hill, and possibly spring-training invitee Ben Grieve.

The Pirates tend to field a team of gamers who try hard and won't aggravate the fans, but effort is not enough. The rotation looks very slipshod after Oliver Perez, there's little reason to think the bullpen will be up to the task, and the lineup will have to scratch for runs even with good years from Craig Wilson and Bay. Unlike some other teams of Pirates' past, this one will provide some entertainment on the field, but will never be close to playoff contention. I expect a stretch or two above .500, but as with past years when the team did this, it will settle in to a good 10-15 games below .500 and a probable fifth place (thank god for the Brewers) in a tough NL Central.

I end up saying this every year in the Pirates' preview, but this bears repeating -- the late great Bill Veeck was fond of saying that the only thing five-year plans lead to are more five-year plans. The Pirates are now on their third five-year plan since their last glory days of the early 90s. First the excuse was the labor situation that lead to the 1994 lock-out; then it was the excuse they needed a new ballpark; now the excuse seems to be developing that, well, the new labor peace isn't enough for a team like Pittsburgh, despite the fact that even smaller-payroll teams make the playoffs every year.

Bankrupt the team is not, but it's just barely making ends meet, and that's pretty sad given the fantastic history of baseball in the 'Burgh. This is one city that's going to have a tough time adapting to being small, and a ballclub that is showing no signs that it knows how to play small in a way that will win. I continue to believe the town, despite its demographics, would support a winner -- it's got a great ballpark -- but nothing at all like one is on the horizon. That's a bankruptcy of leadership.