New York Mets 2005 Season Preview

The Mets may have rediscovered their identity. I'm not talking about the team on the field, whose identity remains to be defined, but the organizational identity. For some time, they have looked as if they were indecisive about acting like a big market or a small market team. The indecision often left them dangling, not making a real run for the top man on the market, but looking for a bargain in someone with a great past (Mo Vaughn or Robby Alomar) or enormous unrealized potential (Hidalgo). They said they were building with youth from within, then precipitously traded off prospects, including one of the most highly rated pitchers in the minor leagues, in what looked like a panic. As an organization they appeared to be suffering from what we psychiatrists would call an identity disorder. I have a friend who consults to companies and organizations with psychological problems. I might have recommended him to them, but perhaps they have turned the corner without professional help.

Obviously, there is no one way to be successful as a baseball organization. You have to use all your resources wisely. The problem was the uncertainty, lack of confidence, shifts from one extreme to the other. The individual decisions weren't necessarily bad, although they didn't work out. I don't know that anyone knew, for instance that Alomar would fall apart so precipitously. Ironically, the trade for him didn't turn out to be so bad, since none of the prospects they gave away materialized.

Now, Omar Minaya has convinced Mets ownership to play with the big boys. They can't compete budget wise with the Yankees, but there's no reason they can't act like the Red Sox in pursuing big name players. There were two obvious factors in this organizational self-discovery. The Mets will be starting their own cable station in '06, with big money partners. A financial investment in Pedro Martinez or Carlos Beltran now makes more business sense since it enhances the product on the screen. It's also likely that they were embarrassed by their recent failures, particularly the Kazmir fiasco.

We don't know for sure what this metamorphosis will mean, or even if they will have the courage to continue with it if Pedro develops a sore arm or Beltran hits .250 at Shea and loses balls in the sun. There is also the danger that they will neglect their minor league system. Minaya has said that he believes in a strong minor league system. Nothing he has done disproves that, but he has not proved it either. The free agents he signed cost the Mets their second and third picks in the draft and he traded a good prospect for Doug Mientkiewicz. Nevertheless, none of these moves appears flawed - the free agents make sense at this point (and they could not lose their first round draft pick) and the trade was a fair one of a known major league commodity (whom the Red Sox didn't need) for a prospect who was not a sure thing.

Everyone agrees that the team on the field will be an improvement. The one area where that is a certainty is fielding. (I should warn that last year I said it seemed a near certainty that Matsui would play a good shortstop.) With Mientkiewicz (I hate this trade from a spelling perspective) at first, David Wright, Jose Reyes and Matsui should feel free to use their range and fling the ball over without fear. Anyone who watched a lot of the Mets last year will not miss the excitement that went with every throw to first. The new manager, Willy Randolph, hinted back in the early winter that he preferred a glove man at first. Piazza will not throw out a lot of runners, but his catching skills are good in every other respect. With Cameron in right, Beltran can cheat to left a bit and Floyd catches what he gets to.

The lineup looks better as well. It is a consistent lineup, with Cameron and Mientkiewicz batting seventh and eighth. There should be no sure out. The top of the order will have great speed and three switch hitters if they all stay healthy - Reyes, Matsui and Beltran. The weakness is in the middle. Piazza is one of the great hitters of all time, underrated because of the pitchers' parks he has always played in, but he is no longer a legitimate cleanup hitter. Wright may well be a three or four hitter eventually, but he is not likely to be there yet. Floyd has the most potential, but his playing time is always limited by injury. Nevertheless, they have a lineup that can put pressure on a pitcher from 1-8, 1-9 when Glavine is pitching. Some of them don't get on base as much as you'd like in that kind of lineup, particularly with Shea which will hold averages down, but the pitcher cannot relax with anyone, barring injuries. They do have a potentially good bench if there are some injuries, with Eric Valent, Victor Diaz, Galarraga, who should have a little left at least, Cairo, and a cast of thousands available as spring begins (Marlon Anderson, Joe McEwing, Jeff Keppinger, Ron Calloway etc).

About Cameron: There are ongoing reports and denials about him being traded as I write. Mike Cameron is a good ballplayer who can help this team in right field. Nevertheless, a trade makes sense in terms of value (if it can be worked out). Much of Cameron's value is as a wide-ranging centerfielder. He would be more valuable to another team that needs a centerfielder than to the Mets. If such a team is willing to pay for that value in other talent that the Mets need, they might benefit. It's a little like using the equity on your home. If no one offers talent at another position to make it worthwhile, Cameron will help this team.

The starting pitching looks good, although it consists of pitchers either past their greatness or not yet having achieved it. Pedro should be helped significantly by the move from Fenway to Shea. Glavine and Trachsel should be helped particularly by the improved defense. Last year, I suggested, with little in the way of evidence, that Glavine might be what Bill James once called a "Tommy John pitcher", who among other things tends to exaggerate the team's tendency to win or lose. I don't know if that holds any water, but he certainly should be more comfortable with this infield behind him. In a way, Benson and Zambrano may be most interesting to watch. They are both hard throwers and in their prime. The problem is the same as last year. This is not a staff noted for lasting into the eighth or ninth, maybe not the seventh. The offense will help in this respect. There may be fewer low scoring tight games, although you'll always get some of those at Shea. Still, a lot will fall on the bull pen.

The popular notion is that the bull pen is weak. Beyond the closer, Braden Looper, there is no one who inspires confidence. It will be an interesting test of philosophy. In the past, the Mets usually had established relievers with a good track record who broke down somewhere during the year with all those close games. Minaya seems to be approaching it differently, relying on safety in numbers. It might be looked at as a Darwinian approach. He has collected large numbers of relievers with different histories and attributes. The theory, I assume, is that out of those numbers, some will rise to the top and have career years. It could be argued that middle relievers and even set-up men are pitchers with average careers who peak for a year or two and gain a name as a bullpen asset. Minaya's theory may be that if you have enough bottles, you'll catch lightning in a few of them. He's taken a similar approach to the bench, although there he has more obvious talent. If you look at the Braves' bullpens through the years, they often kept putting bodies onto the mound in the late innings until they found a combination that worked.

As to actual success on the field, one of the biggest factors is the competition. A lot of people think the Braves lost a lot, but their pitching staff looks awfully good and they replaced Drew with Mondesi. The Marlins are also stronger with Delgado, although the closer could be a problem. It's hard to pick the Mets ahead of them, particularly with the question marks in the middle of the lineup and the stamina of the starters. Nevertheless, injuries can and do always change the equation. Among other things, the Mets changed their hospital affiliation and trainers. I don't know if that makes a difference, being more of a believer in dumb luck. If there is one player I would watch to see how this team will do, it might be Piazza. If he could have a rebound year at 36, many of the questions will be answered. I haven't even mentioned the new manager (Willie Randolph), the second year pitching coach (Rick Peterson), and Omar Minaya's Latin influence.

But, if this team is not a big winner, the future looks brighter than it did last August or September. Beltran, Wright and Reyes are young enough to build around. Despite giving away Kazmir - don't you think they could have gotten Zambrano for less at some point? - they will have some excellent prospects, led by Lastings Milledge, one of the top "five tool" prospects in the minors. They also have pitching prospects in, Yusmeiro Petit, who keeps fooling hitters without velocity but reportedly with late movement, as well as their top draft choice, Philip Humber, and their third pick, Gaby Hernandez, who opened eyes pitching in the rookie league at a young age. There are at least three other very athletic prospects who could break out this year after good years in '04. Piazza's contract expires at the end of this year, and whether he re-signs or not they should have a little extra money to spend. They'll also have that equity in Cameron. The good news is that there is hope that they can build upon this team now that they know who they are as an organization. Meanwhile we'll all hope that this isn't what we psychiatrists call a temporary flight into health.