Minnesota Twins 2005 Season Preview

by Tom Renbarger

The Minnesota Twins enter the 2005 season as kings of the smallest hill in the bigs, three years running. The perceptions are that most of the rest of the division is catching up with them. Can Minnesota hold off the aspirants to their throne?

The Twins have the makings for a very formidable pitching staff from top to bottom. That staff is of course anchored by 2004 AL Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana, who made his run for the roses with an historic 13-0 record after the break. If you get a chance, take a look at Santana's last 10 games, the numbers are eye-popping. If you're too lazy (or too late) to click on the link, try these stats on for size: 9-0 with a 0.91 ERA in 69.0 IP, 40 H, 7 BB and 82 K's in that span. Based on his 31-8 record as a starter the past two seasons, the Twins locked up their just turned 26-year old ace to a 4-year, $40 million dollar contract. That's positively splurging by Twins' standards, but they're still getting the hometown discount. Also worth noting is that Santana racked up 265 whiffs despite struggling with his confidence in his recovery from surgery the first two months of the season. A Santana fully confident with his health from Opening Day could make a run at 300 K's this season.

Brad Radke was a key retention for the Twins, signing a two-year, $18 million deal in the offseason. He'll be fine as the Twins #2 starter, and with a little more offensive support he would've been in the mid-teens in wins, instead of having to settle for only 11 wins (against 8 losses) as he did last year. Radke finished fourth in the AL in ERA in 2004 with a 3.48 mark, and still has plenty of gas in the tank, as he won't turn 33 until the end of October. Look for at least 15 wins from the Twins' onetime ace this season.

In the middle of the Twins' rotation, Carlos Silva made the most of his first opportunity to start full-time last year, going 14-8 with a 4.20 ERA in 203 IP. Hitters put the ball in play against Silva, as he had only 76 strikeouts and gave up only 35 walks last season. 255 hits allowed is some cause for concern, and it seems unlikely that Silva will reproduce his ERA from last season if he continues to allow over 13 base runners per 9 IP. Kyle Lohse struggled after going a combined 27-19 in 2002-3, winding up 9-13 with a 5.34 ERA. Lohse throws as hard as Santana, actually, and has up to four different pitches when he's right, so last year's effort was a puzzler. It wouldn't be surprising if Silva and Lohse flip-flopped in terms of their relative effectiveness this year compared to last, and there's actually some room for improvement if Silva can demonstrate that last season was no fluke and Lohse can reclaim the form he's proven capable of during 2002-3.

The Twins' version of the near-universal competition for the fifth slot in the rotation will pit 2001 standout Joe Mays against ageless lefty Terry Mullholland and the inexperienced Matt Guerrier. Mays missed all of 2004 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and made only 38 starts and 10 relief appearances in 2002-3 after his 17-13 2001 campaign, in which he threw 233 innings. He'll be given every chance to win the job, as that would permit the versatile Mulholland to work out of the pen as long reliever and second lefty after J.C. Romero. Failing that, Mulholland is the likely fifth starter, though there is a slight chance that the green Guerrier (2 starts lifetime) could wiggle into the rotation. 23-year old Scott Baker made waves by being named an All-Star in both high-A and AA last season before turning in a strong second half in AAA, but is probably a year away from being a serious contender for the rotation.

Manager Ron Gardenhire has a stable full of flamethrowers to call upon from the bullpen. The Twins' relief corps is headed by Joe Nathan, a 2004 All-Star who flourished as a first-time closer after coming to the Twin Cities from San Francisco for All-Star catcher A.J. Pierzynski. Nathan converted 44 of 47 save opportunities last season and had some gutsy performances against the Yankees in last year's ALDS. He hits 97-98 mph on the radar gun and has a slider that pushes 90 in its own right, though he's more effective when throwing it at 87-88. Juan Rincon was a borderline All-Star as Nathan's setup man, and had a fabulous season end on a sour note when he gave up the ALDS-winning homer to Ruben Sierra in the 8th inning of Game 4 of that series.

Lefty J.C. Romero got off to a slow start in 2004, even earning a demotion to the minors near the All-Star break. After his return, he reeled off 36 consecutive scoreless innings from mid-July to mid-September. His past three seasons have been a mixed bag -- an outstanding 2002, a so-so 2003 and his up-and-down effort last year. He has closer's stuff and should be fine as a 7th-inning type. Australian Grant Balfour has been mediocre throughout most of his career, but he's another hard thrower, and authored a pair of crackling innings in the 6th and 7th of ALDS Game 4 before Rincon's blown save in the 8th, a performance so good that it had some people second-guessing whether he should have been left in for a third inning in order to get to Nathan. Youngster Jesse Crain made 22 appearances last season and went 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA. He was a little wild (12 BB in 27 innings) but also only gave up 17 hits. He should be a valuable contributor from the pen this season, assuming he earns a spot on the staff, which is not completely guaranteed.

The ceiling for the Twins' pitching staff is scary high. In the rotation, Santana and Radke are both proven 20-game winners, and assuming that Mays actually does come back, their other three starters each have a 14-win (or 17 in Mays's case) season under their belts. The top two are known quantities, and Silva and Lohse should more or less average out to what they did last year, and maybe even be a little better. The key will be Mays -- a complete recovery allows Mulholland to be a swing guy out of the bullpen and leaves the top five at the back end to shorten games a la the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim's bullpen of recent years or even the Nasty Boys of the late 1980's-early 90's Reds. None of the Twins relievers are quite as good as a K-Rod or Randy Myers, but they could be one of the deepest quality pens in recent memory if Balfour and Crain grow into their potentials and the good J.C. Romero shows up.

Turning now to position players, Minnesota needs to replace the left side of their infield. Free agents SS Cristian Guzman and 3B Corey Koskie left for Washington and Toronto, respectively. Michael Cuddyer will be Koskie's replacement so long as he stays healthy, with promising youngster Terry Tiffee waiting in the wings should misfortune befall Cuddyer. The Twins expect Cuddyer to build upon the postseason performance he turned in filling in for injured 2B Luis Rivas, and with a full season's playing time he should come close to replacing Koskie's 25 homers. The shortstop competition is wide open. Nick Punto was a spark off the bench last season, and is the most offensively capable of the candidates. Juan Castro is in the Twins' camp, but he's basically Cristian Guzman without the triples. Journeyman Augie Ojeda is in the mix as well. Punto has battled nagging injuries early in spring training. If he rounds into shape as camp progresses, look for him to win the starting job. Otherwise, Castro will probably be the choice.

The remainder of the infield is set. 2B Luis Rivas is the eldest of these three players, but won't turn 26 until the end of August. He has a slick glove and a free swing, and had a surprising 34 extra-base hits in 336 AB. This pop might earn Rivas some time in the 2-hole of the Twins' lineup, but it should be noted that he has a career .307 OBP, and only managed a .283 mark last year. He really should hit eighth or ninth. 23-year old Justin Morneau will get his first Opening Day at 1B this season. Morneau clubbed 19 homers in 74 games, and it shouldn't require a Ph. D. in physics to realize what those numbers portend for a full season's work. Morneau has been mentioned in the same breath with Kent Hrbek around the Twin Cities, and he'll get his first chance to live up to these lofty expectations now that he's the everyday cleanup hitter. C Joe Mauer is the youngest of all, at a tender 21 years of age. Mauer was selected #1 overall in the 2001 Amateur Draft, ahead of Mark Prior, whom the Twins passed over in favor of the local star for signability reasons. Mauer's first season in the majors was limited to 35 games due to a knee injury suffered in April, and Minnesota is counting on him to make a full recovery and be an important part of the lineup, possibly even the regular #3 hitter. Wherever he hits, he'll be a big upgrade over Henry Blanco, who signed with the Cubs to become Greg Maddux's personal catcher.

The Twins' outfield is comprised of veteran starters backed by a number of talented youngsters. Shannon Stewart, Torii Hunter, and Jacque Jones will be the Opening Day starters in left, center, and right, in that order. Stewart has a career .370 OBP, and is the best option as leadoff hitter for Minnesota. Stewart struggled with foot and leg injuries and was limited to 92 games, though he did score 46 runs and post a .380 OBP in that span. Hunter will give you 25-30 homers and unsurpassed defense in center. He may slip up to the 3-slot in the lineup, but historically he's done his best work hitting fifth, and I think Coach Gardenhire is smart enough to figure this out. Jacque Jones will be good for another 20-25 homers in his own right, and fits in well in the 6-slot in the lineup, though he may also see some time in the 2-hole. Fourth outfielder and likely Opening Day DH Lew Ford may be the Twins' best all-around offensive player. He could also split time in left with Stewart if injuries limit him again this year. Youngsters Michael Restovich, Jason Kubel (a surprise starter in Game 2 of last season's ALDS), and Michael Ryan are all highly regarded but will be caught in a logjam behind Minnesota's top four in the outfield. This depth in the outfield gave rise to offseason trade rumors involving Jacque Jones, and there's a chance that either the starter or some of the young depth could be moved once play starts, particularly if a trade for a steady fifth starter or a better shortstop could be engineered.

The infield depth isn't quite of the same caliber as the outfield, though they do have a couple of decent choices for backup catcher in Matthew LeCroy and former Florida Marlin Mike Redmond. LeCroy led the Twins in slugging in 2003 but had his own injury concerns last year, and with the emergence of Lew Ford he could be the odd man out in Minnesota's lineup. The most that can be said about his playing prospects right now is that he's the backup 1B and DH, the third-string catcher, and the power bat off the bench. The runners-up in the shortstop competition will form most of the remainder of the bench, and Terry Tiffee might also catch on as a backup 3B, though the organization might rule that they'd be best served with Tiffee playing full-time in AAA.

In the end, the best Twins lineup might look something like this:

LF - Stewart
DH - Ford
C - Mauer
1B - Morneau
CF - Hunter
RF - Jones
3B - Cuddyer
2B - Rivas
SS - Punto/Castro/Ojeda

That's pretty good from 1-7. Assuming reasonable health, the Twins have a few subtle improvements they can avail themselves of -- full seasons from Stewart, Mauer, and Morneau, a bullpen even deeper than the excellent unit from last season, and possible returns to form of a slumping youngster (Lohse) and an injured vet (Mays) in the rotation. Even if all of these things don't pan out, they should be just good enough to remain the king of their small yet growing hill. If all of these improvements do come to pass, they could even pick off a more highly regarded team in the AL playoffs.