Los Angeles Dodgers 2005 Season Preview

by Robert Mrse

Is it to anyone's surprise that Dodger General Manager Paul DePodesta is a fan of the works of Ayn Rand? The Los Angeles Times reported that the Fictional Character DePodesta most admired was "Howard Roark" in Ayn Rand's book "The Fountainhead". Roark exemplified Rand's philosophy of "Objectivism", where, as she wrote in description of in 1962, "Reality exists as an objective absolute‹facts are facts, independent of man's feelings, wishes, hopes or fears."

Enter the dismantling of the 2004 National League West Championships, the first Dodger team in 16 years to win a playoff game. A team that drew over 3.4 million fans, the third highest in Dodger History. A team that shook the perception that owner Frank McCourt had really no interest in making the Dodgers a competitor, or was ill equipped to do the job financially. Runner up to the MVP, Adrian Beltre signed with Seattle, largely due to his dissatisfaction that the Dodgers didn't make him feel as their "Number One Priority". Steve Finley, who hit the division clinching home run, was disappointed in the Dodgers' direction and not offered arbitration. He now plays for LA's other team, the Angels of Anaheim. Playoff hero Jose Lima, who baffled the National League Champion St. Louis Cardinals in a 4-0 shut out in the NLDS, was not offered arbitration and is now in Kansas City. Shawn Green and his 31 HR (28 in the regular season, 3 in the NLDS) was a target of DePodesta to trade away because of his $16 million salary, is now a Diamondback. Alex Cora, who was part of the best defensive double play combination in LA Dodger history, signed with Cleveland. This all after the 2004 deadline deal which sent fan favorite Paul LoDuca to Florida. There are only 7 Dodger that remain since DePodesta took over in the beginning of 2004.

However, it is the opinion of the Dodger brass that they are not rebuilding, but rebuilt. The biggest addition in the off-season was J.D. Drew. The oft-injured but immensely talented right fielder signed for 5 years 55 million dollars. Ironically, the contract duration and amount is the exact same as given in 2001 to the immensely talented but oft-injured Darrin Driefort who has pitched 205 2/3 innings under that contract, where he's gone 9-15 with a 4.63 ERA. DePodesta however has confidence that Drew will be able to duplicate his 2004 season in Atlanta, where he set career highs in games (145), runs (118), runs batted in (93), hits (158), doubles (28), triples (8), home runs (31) and walks (118) while hitting .305 with an OBP of .435 and an slugging percentage of .570. Drew, if healthy, should supply the equivalent offense of the departed Beltre.

Accompanying Drew in the outfielder is Milton Bradley, who at the least, will benefit from switch back to center field in that the fans are a whole lot farther away from him. Unlike the media perception, Milton is not a bad guy, but just an emotional guy. His ball throwing and bottle throwing tirades can't be seen as intents to injury, but to simply actions to embarrass himself and the Dodger organization. Bradley, unlike many professional athletes, admitted his wrongdoings and sought professional help. His offensive numbers were down last year (.267/.362/.424), which could be due to playing in Dodger Stadium as well as his switch to the National League. The Dodgers are hoping for numbers that more closely resemble is 2003 performance with Cleveland (.321/.421/.501) which is very possible for the 27 year old.

One of the great surprises for the Dodgers was the performance of Jayson Werth. Locked behind Vernon Wells in Toronto, the converted catcher came to the Dodgers early in 2004, worked his way into the lineup and ended the season as the number two hitter in the order with 16 Home Runs in only 290 AB. Werth's wrist was broken by an A.J. Burnett fastball, and will start the season on the disabled list. Journeyman Ricky LeDee will be an adequate replacement. The LH was enjoying a nice year as a 4th outfielder for the Phillies until he was traded to SF, were he hit .113/.151/.200, but in only 53 AB.

Cesar Izturis will anchor the infield defense as well as bat leadoff for the Dodgers. Iztuirs enjoyed a career year in 2004, with 193 hits, 32 doubles 9 triples and 25 stolen bases. He also led the NL shortstops in fielding percentage and played dazzling defense en route to his first Gold Glove award.

Jeff Kent will do more than replace Alex Cora offensively, he will eclipse him. Kent, born nearby Bellflower, in does have to deal with the transition of playing in Dodger Stadium instead of cozy Minute Maid Park. Kent's home/away splits last year aren't terribly different (.307/.371.551 at home, .271/.324/.511 on the road) and, by DePodesta's account, Dodger Stadium suppress most offensive statistics expect home run totals. Given that, Kent is likely have another 20+HR year. Much has been said about the decline in defense 2b will undergo with Kent as opposed to Cora, however defensive statistics show that their may be no drop-off with Kent; he posted a higher range factor and fielding percentage that Cora.

No one expects Jose Valentin to replace the offensive production and defense of Adrian Beltre at third. He won't come close in either regard, but the Dodgers are hoping that Valentin can somewhat replicate the number of home runs he hit in Chicago (30HR). Again, given DePodesta account of Dodger Stadium suppresses most offensive statistics expect home runs, we may see a Rob Deerian output from the 36 year old.

Perhaps the biggest question mark that Dodgers have is Hee Seop Choi. Choi absolutely stop hitting after he was traded to the Dodgers, hitting .161 and 0 home runs in 63 AB after 15 HR in 281AB for Florida as well has posting .270/.388/.495 during that time. Choi has not shown much in spring ball, other his ability to draw walks. His propensity to walk had led to the consideration of batting him 2nd in the order. Batting Instructor Tim Wallach has been reluctant to tweak with Choi's swing, hoping he'll find his stroke from last April where he hit 9 home runs It will be interesting to see how short of a leash Manager Jim Tracy will have with Choi. Certainly, DePodesta would like to see Choi play of a full year, something he hasn't done in his 3 years prior.

The Dodgers brought in Jason Phillips to catch this spring in exchange for Kazuisha Ishii. Phillips started off incredibly slowly last year after having a promising 2003, where he went .298/.373/.442 in 403 at bats. Many observers blamed Phillips lack of success on bad luck; he simply went anti-Willie Keller and hit them where they were. Any decent production from him will be an improvement to the roster. A big plus is that he a good game caller with a good arm; he threw out 31% of would be base runners last year. Phillips may just be a temporary place holder until Dioner Narvarro gets an adequate number of pro years under his belt.

The Dodgers are hoping the pitching will be upgraded with in inclusion of Derek Lowe and a healthy Brad Penny. Lowe cashed in on his post season performance against the two best hitting teams not named Boston with a 4 years $36 million contract. That's a lot of scratch to give a guy who gave up 224 hits and walked 71 batters with an ERA of 5.42 in 187 2/3 innings in the 2004 regular season. His 2003 season wasn't much better and he's 2 years away from his 21-win season. Lowe is tremendous at inducting the ground ball, however most of the Dodgers infield has changed and not necessarily for the better. Still, just by pitching in Dodger Stadium will help Lowe lower his numbers to more respectable values. However, respectable won't cut the mustard at $9 million a year. Thanks again, Scott Boras.

Penny, who came along to the Dodgers with Hee Seop Choi in the widely unpopular Paul Lo Duca trade, is as big of a question mark and the 6'5" first baseman. Penny is trying to come back from the same nerve injury in his bicep that eventually ended Robb Nen's career in San Francisco. The Dodgers, try to recover from the P.R. nightmare, have been real slow in bringing Penny back. No time table has been place on his return, but he is throwing pain free in the spring.

Odalis Perez returns following a frustrating year where he only won seven games while posted a solid 3.26 ERA over 196 1/3 innings. With his poor performance in the NLCS, there seemed to be a question whether he would be brought back. However, with the loss of Beltre, Finley and Lima, the Dodgers spent the second half of the off-season repairing their questioned financial image to the benefit of Perez . Perez is also slowed by bicep tendonitis, but is expected to produce again in 2005.

Jeff Weaver looks to be an adequate innings filler in the 4th spot in the rotation. Weaver, never short on stuff, logged 220 innings with an ERA of 4.01. More of the same is expected this year. Mr. Lisa Guerrero, a.k.a. Scott Erickson will be looked to fill out the rotation, with accused steroid user Wilson Alvarez waiting in the wings if Erickson falters.

Eric Gagne will again anchor the bullpen Gagne showed signs of vulnerability last year, giving up 16 more hits and striking out 23 fewer in the same number of innings as in 2003 and finally blowing not one but two saves. OK, he's human, but he's still the best the business in closing the door on the opposition. Yhency Brazoban, Giovanni Carrara, Wilson Alvarez and Duaner Sanchez will fill out what is still one of the best bullpens in baseball.

The Dodgers best move in the off-season was returning manager Jim Tracy to the helm. Every season since taking over the Dodgers, he gets more out of the Dodgers as expected. For the fourth straight year, the teams final record had been better than the Pythagorean W-L record extracted runs created and runs allowed. Last year, he finally enjoyed a ticket to the playoffs with the best team he's had to date. As a reward, he honored the Dodgers by signing a two year contract.

With San Francisco taking sound steps in improving the deficiencies on the roster, the San Diego Padres' solid hitting and pitching and the vast improvement in the Arizona Diamondbacks roster, the Dodgers will be in a dog hunt for the National League Crown.

They have the talent to compete, they have the manager to keep them in it, but their post season hopes rest on the health of Barry Bonds. If Bonds is healthy for a large part of the season, the Giants may run away with it, but not without a fight. Fortunately, for the future of the franchise, the Dodgers have an owner who isn't afraid to have a $100 million payroll, unlike their rivals to the North and South. Throw in a solid farm system and a manager that knows how to get the best out of his players, and the Dodgers could be primed for long term success. But assurance is dependent on the acumen of DePodesta. He just needs to be right for the Dodgers to succeed. This year, his skills will be tested through Drew, Penny, Choi, Phillips and Lowe.