Florida Marlins 2005 Season Preview

Last spring the Florida Marlins were the toast of the baseball world, the reigning World Series champions, with a colorful manager in Jack McKeon and a young team headlined by power pitchers Josh Beckett, A.J. Burnett, Brad Penny, Dontrelle Willis and Carl Pavano, a quintet that would prevent any long losing streaks and lead the way to at least another post-season.

On these pages a year ago, we forecast that pitching would keep the team in the thick of the pennant race; predicted the loss of catcher Ivan Rodriguez to free agency would hurt, especially because there wasn't a strong replacement ready; told you the bench and bullpen were weak; and speculated that first baseman Hee Seop Choi, acquired from the Cubs, would come into his own under McKeon. Well, three out of four is pretty good.

The pitchers were able to produce 83 wins (eight fewer than the previous year), which left the Fish 13 games behind the Braves and three games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The team stayed in the wild card race for most of the second half but eventually finished behind several clubs, including the Astros, who won 92 games and that fourth playoff spot. Pavano, in the final year of his contract, leapfrogged past his mound mates to become the ace, winning 18 games (two by shutouts), which made him one of the most sought-after players on the free agent market and the eventual winner of a big contract with the Yankees. Penny was traded to the Dodgers in a mid-season deal for catcher Paul Lo Duca, which shored up one of the Marlins' weak spots, but Beckett, Burnett and Willis all had mediocre years. Choi was just as disappointing in South Florida as he had been on the North Side of Chicago and accompanied Penny to LA.

To be fair, we also questioned the wisdom of signing relief pitcher Armando Benitez. He went on to have a spectacular year, saving 47 games and posting a microscopic ERA of 1.29, but this winter he left to join the Giants, his fifth team in just the last three seasons, a statistic I find to be just as significant as his pitching numbers. He may have been an All-Star in 2004, but I would be very surprised if he can duplicate his success in the City by the Bay.

The Marlins did, however, make some positive noise over the winter, signing slugging first baseman Carlos Delgado to a four-year contract worth $52 million, a new franchise record. For a team that finished 11th in the league in runs scored, this was an important acquisition. Delgado has hit at least 25 home runs and driven home at least 90 runs every year since 1996; that includes three seasons with more than 40 homers and six years with over one hundred ribbies. And while he does strike out a lot, like most sluggers, he also hits for average (.282 lifetime) and walks better than 80 times a year, which means he's not a one-dimensional power hitter. He will turn 33 years old during the season, which could prove to be significant at the back end of this contract, but for 2005 he could prove to be the perfect anchor in an everyday lineup that will include centerfielder Juan Pierre and second baseman Luis Castillo serving as the table-setters at the top of the order, and Lo Duca, Miguel Cabrera, Mike Lowell, Alex Gonzalez and either Juan Encarnacion or Jeff Conine rounding out a potentially formidable eight.

Pierre batted .326 last season, which placed him sixth in the league, and he led the senior circuit with 221 hits, twelve triples and 678 at-bats, while finishing second with his 45 stolen bases (though he was caught 20 times). Castillo repeated his Gold Glove performance, but his offensive numbers dropped off a bit from the past two years. Lowell's RBI totals dropped from 105 to 85 but otherwise had a fine year, while Gonzalez was his usual consistent self, providing some punch in the lower part of the order. Lo Duca's number dropped after coming over from the Dodgers; the Marlins are hoping that can be attributed to unexpectedly leaving the only organization he had ever known and moving cross-country, and not because he is about to turn 33.

Miguel Cabrera, who had such an impressive rookie season when called up in June of 2003, proved to be the real deal. He hit 33 homers and drove home 112 runs (fifth in the league), despite being, at 21 years old, the third-youngest player in the NL. He struck out a lot and, despite a powerful arm, seemed to be more comfortable in left field than in right, but he is a budding superstar and could benefit the most from Delgado's imposing presence.

Like last year, however, the Marlins have a thin bench. If Lo Duca goes down, they only have non-roster invitee Mike DiFelice or youngsters Matt Treanor or Josh Willingham - with 41 major league games between them - as possible backups. If they lose Pierre for any length of time, they are only looking at young Chris Aguila or several prospects in center. General Manager Larry Beinfest will no doubt be attempting to beef up the bench during spring training.

Which brings us back to that pitching staff. Al Leiter, who had two excellent years in South Florida (including the first World Championship season of 1997) before being traded to the Mets, is coming back ostensibly to replace Pavano. At 39 years old his best days are undoubtedly behind him, but he will bring a veteran presence to this still-young rotation -- he has appeared in 386 major league games, while Beckett, Burnett and Willis have 238 combined! Beckett and Burnett, especially, have the capability to win twenty games and anchor the staff, and one of them needs to step up and take charge. The bullpen, meanwhile, could really hold the key to the Marlins' 2005 season. Guillermo Mota, the 31-year-old right-hander, had established himself as one of the league's top setup men with the Dodgers before coming east in the Lo Duca deal. He has never, however, been a team's primary closer, which is what Florida will be asking him to do. The rest of the bullpen is suspect: Antonio Alfonseca, Todd Jones, Jim Mecir, Matt Perisho and Tim Spooneybarger have all been consistently inconsistent throughout their careers. Mota is going to need to lead the bullpen, at least a couple of the above-named hurlers are going to have to have good years, and the emergence of at least one youngster, such as Nate Bump or Ben Howard, would no doubt be greatly appreciated by Jack McKeon and pitching coach Mark Wiley. In short, the pitching staff has tremendous upside but could also implode, and how they perform will be more important than the contributions of Delgado, Cabrera and Company.

Finally, no discussion of the Marlins would be complete without an update on their future in South Florida. Ownership is, frankly, banking everything on a new ballpark. While I personally don't believe the area will ever be a good major league site, I do agree that they need to get out of their monstrosity of a home, a stadium that is really the Dolphins' football facility. Negotiations have been underway for years with the city and Dade County, and in January they announced a "memorandum of understanding" on a 38,000-seat, retractable roof stadium that will cost $420 million. Both the city and the Miami-Dade County commissioners have overwhelmingly signed off on the deal, and now the matter must be taken up by the Florida legislature, so this saga may continue for a while.

While the Marlins have won two World Series in the past decade, they have never won the National League East, which has been the exclusive domain of the Atlanta Braves since 1995. Though the Braves won again last year by a healthy ten games, this is not the juggernaut of years past, which certainly gives hope to the Marlins, as well as to the Phillies and perhaps even the Mets. Thus, in order for Florida to get back to the post-season, their young starters are going to have to pitch up to their capabilities and the bullpen will need to be effective in stopping rallies. I think this lineup will hit the ball and score runs, so the fortunes of the Fish in 2005 will essentially be found on the mound.