Cleveland Indians 2005 Season Preview

by Brian D. Duscha

Big Picture: Last year in this preview I said that the Tribe "will tease you with flashes of brilliance, but will also frustrate you with growing pains." Well, on August 14, 2004 the Indians had just won 10 of 11 games and were 1 game out of first place. They then lost 10 of 11 and fell out of contention by going 17-27 down the stretch. Why? Young arms in the starting rotation were tired, the bullpen could not hold leads and inexperience reared its naive head. Although there was that 22-0 waxing of the Yankees in September! I believe this year Cleveland will be chasing a division title into late September. In a so-so division that saw no team improve dramatically during the off-season free agent auction, the Indians quietly improved their pitching and have a year more of experience.

Pitching: The Indians starting rotation of Sabathia, Westbrook, Millwood, Lee, Davis and Elarton have the makings to be one of the best in the American League. Westbrook was an all-star last year and was 3rd in the A.L. with a 3.38 E.R.A. He may become the ace of this staff. He has a great sinker and will have to pitch versus throw this year. We are all waiting to see when Sabathia will have his break-out year. At times he is nasty and un-hittable. Other times he seems to lose his concentration, likely because we forget he is only 24 years old. At 300 plus pounds, Manager EricWedge would like to see a better than a 1:2 ratio between weight and strikeouts for Sabathia. There is no reason why this guy shouldn't win 16 games. He only won 11 last year, but remember that the bullpen blew 6 leads that he handed to them. At no. 3 is Millwood, who is battle-proven and, if healthy, should win 14 and add leadership in the clubhouse. He knows how to win (don't all ex-Braves know how to win?). The starters will get you into the 6th or 7th and considering last Fall's meltdown, should be on some kind of pitch count. So, it is all up to a bullpen that only had 32 saves all last year. No problem with middle relief or set-up arms with Howry, Riske, Miller and Betancourt. The ball will be given to either Wickman or Rhodes in the 9th. Although the names are recognizable and they are certainly talented enough, their age is questionable and their elbows must cooperate. The closers will determine if Cleveland fans are more interested in watching the Indians or the Browns in September. Eric Wedge must have a plan B "just in case." I agree with the rumor mill that Cleveland brain trust is considering moving young flamethrower Jason Davis into the closer's role.

"Hey, Statboy what do you know?!" Cliff Lee was 9-1 at the all-star break.

Hitting: Just to let you know I'm honest, I said last year that there would be a power outage in Cleveland. Boy, was I wrong. No problem in this category last year. A total of 858 Indians crossed the plate last year. Good enough for 3rd in the A. L. in runs scored (first in runs per salary). Your leadoff hitter is R. Belliard. The same R. Belliard that lead the American League in hitting for a major part of the season and finished second in doubles with 48 (that was more than Ortiz, Ramirez or Jeter). No one expects him to do this again, right? Also due up in the first inning are Coco Crisp (best name in baseball), who will replace the departed Matt Lawton, and Travis Hafner. All Hafner did last year was lead the Tribe in all offensive categories (.311, 28 and 109). He did strikeout 111 times. This year he is not a secret and will have to have a more patient eye at the plate to reproduce the 2004 numbers. Victor Martinez has earned the right to bat clean up. A phenomenal 2004 campaign with the bat allows us to forgive his average glove and throwing arm. He can put up Pudge-like offensive numbers and be in the middle of Cleveland's line-up for years to come. He hits for average and power from both sides of the plate. Not seen in the box score is that he gives protection and more hittable balls to Hafner. Get used to seeing him in the mid-July classic. A big spark to the line-up could be the return of Jody Gerut's bat, who is coming off an ACL injury. He struggled last year after having a notable rookie season. There will be healthy competition between Gerut and prospect Grady Sizemore. Sizemore should get a chance at some point. Several other bats are worth mentioning such as Ben Broussard, Casey Blake and Aaron Boone. Separately, this group will not send shivers down any pitcher's spine, but together they are a formidable bottom third of the line-up. Not much is expected from Brandon Phillips or Jhonny Peralta. Peralta could be a nice surprise. He was a AAA stud in Buffalo (.326, 109 and 86). But, this isn't Buffalo. The Tribe also signed Juan Gonzalez. He could be a great DH pick-up and pinch hitter if he has anything left in the tank. In all, this group will score runs like last year without any individual hitting above .310, slugging 40 home runs, stealing 30 bases or walking 75 times.

Defense: If the first big question mark was the bullpen, then the second must be the defense up the middle. Omar Vizquel is gone. No one is replacing this future Hall of Famer's clubhouse presence, consistent bat and triple plated gold glove any time soon. The 6-4-3 double play is now in the hands of Phillips/Peralta, Belliard and Broussard. Belliard is steady, but not spectacular. No one cares as long as he hits his 48 doubles. Enough said. Brandon Phillips was supposed to be the heir to Omar, but it hasn't worked out, yet. Peralta is known more for his bat than glove. Phillips and Peralta are only 22 and 23 years old. Broussard has established himself as having a better than average glove at first with only 6 errors all of last season. Boone will likely be at third and is also a better than average defensive player. A good off season pick-up, Alex Cora, along with Ryan Ludwick are solid bench players for the infield. Behind the plate Martinez and J. Bard are serviceable. Bard gets the defensive edge. Nothing special in the outfield. Casey Blake has been moved to the outfield to make room for Boone in the infield. He has never played in the outfield before. Coco Crisp may emerge as a solid centerfielder. He has the speed, but has yet to learn how to make a jump on the ball. Sizemore is unproven and Gerut, again, is coming off ACL surgery. All in all, this group probably won't save any games for Eric Wedge, but won't lose many either. The entire middle is a question mark and needs to show the pitching staff it is safe to put the ball in play.

Uh-oh stat: Jhonny Peralta made 3 errors in the only 8 games he appeared in last season. Hopefully, he was only nervous.

Final thoughts: There is little question Cleveland should be competitive in 2005 and challenge Minnesota for the AL Central. One more year of experience and the additional of some veterans like J. Gonzalez, A. Boone, A. Rhodes, K. Millwood and A. Cora may be enough to put them over the top. The offense will not have to be as potent as last year if the starting pitching lives up to their potential. If the bullpen stays healthy and the defense plays solid, the Indians will finish first. However, something tells me there are too many "ifs" and they will finish second in the division. It will be a good year at the Jake, but not quite enough.

Fun Facts: Last year Cleveland's minor league farm system won 4 titles ‹ AAA International league, High Class A Carolina, short-season N.Y.-Penn and the Rookie Level Dominican Summer League. The future is bright. Thank you Mark Shapiro!

Brown "Stadium Mustard" originated in Cleveland and is named after Cleveland Municipal Stadium. It is served in 150 other stadiums and has been requested on 3 space shuttle missions!

Trivia Question: Do you remember who the Indians acquired in the Bartolo Colon trade? Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips. This trade may pay off this year.