Chicago Cubs 2005 Season Preview

At this time last year, the Chicago Cubs were possessed of a near-embarrassment of riches. They had arguably the best rotation in the game, had just signed a premier setup man to bridge the gap from the starters to their surprising closer coming off a breakout season in 2003, and a lineup filled with sluggers, albeit heavily weighted toward the right side of the plate. It was a team that gave its fans positively curse-lifting optimism before the first pitch was thrown during Spring Training.

The sad facts of their 2004 season included a heavy toll of injuries and a collapse in the final 10 games of the season, just enough to keep them out of the playoffs. There was also the small matter of the acrimonious offseason separation between the Cubbies and their iconic slugger of over a decade, Sammy Sosa, who's now in Baltimore. The St. Louis Cardinals used a formula similar to the one the Cubs would have liked to used in winning the NL pennant, and the fact that that squad returns largely intact will mean expectations will be tempered for the Cubs as they head into 2005.

In addition to Sosa trade, which brought over Jerry Hairston Jr. and a couple of prospects, LF Moises Alou and P Matt Clement departed via free agency, and perennial closer-of-the-future Kyle Farnsworth was traded to Detroit, for more prospects. Henry Blanco replaces Paul Bako as Greg Maddux's personal catcher, and the Cubs chose Todd Walker over Mark Grudzielanek to be their everyday second baseman.

The task of filling the power loss of the departed Opening Day 2004 corner outfielders will fall to free agent signee Jeromy Burnitz and either journeyman Todd Hollandsworth, one of many Cubs bitten by the injury bug last year, or rookie Jason Dubois, who did hit 31 homers while driving in 99 for the Cubs' AAA affiliate in Iowa. At this point in their careers, I'm not sure there's much that discriminates between Burnitz and Sosa. I'd probably give Sosa the edge, but Burnitz costs over $10 million less, and Sosa's departure means that he will not need to be re-signed, and most likely overpaid, freeing up this money for potential long-term deals for starters Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano in coming years. Hollandsworth did a fine job filling in for Sosa while he was on the DL, but was clearly wearing down by the end of that run. I don't think he's the every day answer in left for the Cubs, which opens the door for either Dubois or Hairston to crack the lineup. The missed opportunity here was not signing Magglio Ordonez. Hollandsworth may not be the answer as the third outfielder, but has a lot to recommend himself as the #4 outfielder, and a healthy Ordonez would have helped solved one of the Cubs' lineup problems. It's unclear whether Dubois can have the kind of impact that Ordonez most likely would have had this year.

The lineup problem I refer to is that for the most part, the guys in the Cubs' lineup, at this juncture in their careers, are really 5-, 6-, or 7-slot hitters, unless the 1998-2000 Nomar Garciaparra somehow makes an appearance in 2005. At this point SS Garciaparra looks like the #3 hitter in front of likely cleanup man 3B Aramis Ramirez. But in all honesty, based on his last few seasons, isn't Garciaparra really a #5 hitter (or perhaps a #2) until he proves otherwise? That 5 slot will be filled by one of RF Burnitz or 1B Derrek Lee, who had a solid season after a customarily slow start last year. The 2-hole will likely be filled by 2B Walker. The mercurial Corey Patterson will man center and the leadoff spot in the lineup. LF Hollandsworth and C Michael Barrett will man the 7 and 8 slots.

With lefties Burnitz and Hollandsworth replacing righties Sosa and Alou in the lineup, the 2005 Cubs will be much better balanced in that respect compared to the 2004 squad. But I can't shake the feeling that Ordonez's presence in RF and the 3-hole of the Cubs' lineup would have made them a real force to be reckoned with. In that case, you could've bumped Garciaparra up to #2, or slipped him in the 5-slot, depending on whether you think Walker should hit 7th or 2nd. Assuming that Nomar hit fifth, figuring out whether the 6-7 spots in your lineup should go Burnitz-Lee or Lee-Burnitz is a better problem is a better problem than figuring out which of the pair should hit 5th, and which 6th, as is the case now.

But these are all idle fantasies. A real issue the Cubs need to resolve is the leadoff spot in the lineup. Corey Patterson has blazing speed and is a real weapon on the basepaths when he gets there, but he has the punch and aggressiveness of someone who should be hitting south of the cleanup slot. He did make a concerted effort to bunt more as last season progressed, but honestly, do you see Patterson turning into a latter-day Brett Butler? With his high K totals and power he has a much better chance of evolving into a poor man's Bobby Bonds, but it should be noted that every season in which Bonds played at least 100 games, he drew at least 60 walks. Patterson's career high is the 45 he drew last season. He must develop more plate discipline to be the force at the top of the order that his speed and baserunning ability suggest he could be.

Failing Patterson's development into a Butler or (Bobby) Bonds, Jerry Hairston Jr. presents intriguing possibilities as a leadoff hitter. As a part-time player the past two seasons in Baltimore, he managed an aggregate OBP in the .365-.370 range in 144 games. He has never played full time and managed such lofty OBP marks, and probably won't get the chance to do so this season, either. But I could see him splitting time 50-50 with either Hollandsworth or Dubois in left in addition to spelling Todd Walker once every 10 games or so. In 100 starts, Hairston could bring a lot to the table if he can manage to get on base the way he has the past two seasons. In either case, he permits Patterson to slip to the 2-hole, where better advantage can be had from his power, with the option of bumping someone else into the 2-hole for a while if Patterson struggles.

One other thing I've read about with some frequency is doubt about Aramis Ramirez's ability to be The Man in the Cubs lineup, now that Sosa and Alou are gone. I tend to discount these concerns. Even though it's true that Ramirez has always had either Alou/Sosa or Brian Giles in the lineup with him during his best seasons, it's clear that word had gotten out by the end of 2004 that Ramirez was the guy in the Cubs' lineup you didn't let beat you. He did fine as the Cubs' cleanup guy while Sosa was hurt and Alou struggled in the middle of the season. He and Alou were the only guys in the Cubs' lineup who did much of anything in September, and Ramirez was doing it with a tender groin. Part of Alou's September resurgence can be attributed to the reclamation of his batting eye after a somewhat free-swinging midseason, but it should also be noted that Ramirez was hitting behind Alou at that point, so there was likely an element of teams taking their chances against Alou rather than letting Ramirez beat them. Aramis should be fine in the 4-hole this season.

The Cubs' bench will be respectable, with its depth bolstered by the unsettled situation in left. Hairston, Hollandsworth, and Dubois are all up for the job, and all will likely make the roster. Hairston can also pitch in at second base and in center, and Hollandsworth can play either first base or right. The middle infield backups will be Neifi Perez and Jose Macias. Perez will be the principal backup at short, whereas Macias can play a variety of infield and outfield positions. He'll be Ramirez's backup and occasional spot starter elsewhere in the field. Non-roster player Dave Hansen might make the team as a pinch-hitting specialist, particularly if Hollandsworth wins the starting job in left. As mentioned previously, Henry Blanco is now Greg Maddux's personal catcher. He's better at throwing out baserunners and has a little more punch at the plate than Paul Bako, and thus should be judged a moderate upgrade as backup catcher.

The Cubs' 2004 rotation was full of promise, but was wracked by injury, limiting the fulfillment of their potential. Carlos Zambrano was the most consistent starter for the Cubs, having only one losing month and one .500 month against four winning months. He finished the season especially strong, going 4-0 with a 1.96 ERA in six Sept./Oct. starts. Greg Maddux started slowly, and was .500 as late as the end of June with a 6-6 record before going 10-5 from the beginning of July onward. Matt Clement often threw like an ace but was plagued by low run support, and nagging injuries limited his effectiveness down the stretch to the point where Glendon Rusch supplanted him in the rotation.

And then there were the disappointing seasons of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. Wood started off with an ace-like 3-1 April, posting a 2.52 ERA with 42 K's vs. 11 BB's in 35.2 innings. A triceps injury in May cost him two months, and then after a decent month and a half after his return, he faded badly from late August on. Mark Prior missed the first two months of the season with a sore Achilles tendon, and then after a deceptively effective first appearance struggled to find the groove, a struggle that he did not master until September. After Sept. 1 Prior went 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA in five starts, with 43 K's vs. 7 BB's in 37.1 IP. Much of the hope for the Cubs' 2005 season will rest with Wood and Prior contributing dominant performances for much longer than the month or so each did last season.

The fantasy scenario for the Cubs' pitching staff runs as follows. Carlos Zambrano builds off his stellar 2004, and the April 2004 Wood and Sept. 2004 Prior team up to present a top-flight trio to head the rotation. Maddux rounds into form sometime in June, and either a healthy Ryan Dempster or an improved Sergio Mitre takes Clement's spot in the rotation. Coupled with the return to form of Joe Borowski, this would free up Rusch and LaTroy Hawkins to perform the roles they're best suited for, as swing starter and premier setup man, respectively. With lefty Mike Remlinger as a situation middle reliever, the Cubs could then call on any of a number of righties to round out the bullpen, including the one of the Dempster/Mitre pair that didn't crack the rotation, Jon Leicester, Michael Wuertz, and Todd Wellemeyer.

The guess here is that Glendon Rusch will begin the season as the fifth starter. It might still be a little early for Dempster to be a full-time starter after coming off of Tommy John surgery in Aug. 2003, and so far there are no indications that Mitre has seasoned enough to be relied upon as a regular starter for 2005. In the case of Rusch opening the season as a starter, a second lefty will be needed in the 'pen, and there are wide variety of arms to choose from, none of whom will have done very much to date. With Rusch as a starter and a less than fully healthy Borowski, the bullpen is thin, unless perhaps if Ryan Dempster wins the closer job. Finally, it may be the case that Rusch starts out as a starter but moves to the 'pen if either Dempster or Mitre show they're ready to start during the season. If the fantasy scenario comes to pass, even if it doesn't happen until midseason, the 'pen will be surprisingly deep, as outlined above.

The Cubs will be better this season than they were last year if Wood and Prior stay healthy and return to close to the forms they displayed last April and September, respectively. The key man on the staff looks like Joe Borowski. If he comes back to his 2003 level of performance, the Cubs' bullpen is in decent shape. If not, it will fall to the starters to absorb as many innings as possible, a recipe for late-season breakdowns. Ryan Dempster is also in the running for the closer's job, but he has other opportunities, so the dominant option to compete for the closer's job still goes to Borowski.

The Cubs' lineup is pretty solid. Everyone from 2-8 has a .350 or so OBP season under his belt from recent years. The key is clearly Corey Patterson. Manager Dusty Baker will likely give Patterson the most time leading off, unless Jerry Hairston Jr., really wows him. Patterson must not be the easiest out in the Cubs' lineup, or if he remains so, he needs to be dropped in the order.

If the Cubs lineup proves less hit-and-miss this year compared to last and their rotation holds up, they should be in the NL Wild Card mix, and maybe even the favorite. They had an excellent record when scoring 4 or more runs last season, at 78-18. Perhaps what's most noteworthy in that stat is not the record itself, but the fact that a team that hit 235 homers last season couldn't crack the 4-run plateau in 40% of its games. A lineup that's a little steadier from top to bottom should be able to improve on that mark, and a full season out of Wood and Prior should allow the Cubs to make another run at a high winning percentage in games with 4+ runs scored. But St. Louis with their four cleanup hitters and new ace in Mark Mulder will have to come back to the Cubs before one should seriously entertain thoughts that Chicago will claim an NL Central crown in 2005.

Addendum -- The big news in Cubs training camp has been the down time for starters Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, as you've no doubt heard by now. In Prior's case, there's something about the phrases "out indefinitely" and "ready for the beginning of April" that don't add up for mid-March, so it seems likely he'll miss at least one start. Wood might be a little further along the recovery trail as his precautionary, not-in-the-least-bit-panicking flight to Chicago for a shoulder checkup is already over a week distant, but there's a strong chance that the Cubs will be missing the services of two of their young bucks for the start of the season.

What does this mean for the pitching staff? For one thing, it looks like the competition for #5 starter will have three winners, at least at the beginning of the season. After Zambrano and Maddux go in some order in the Cubs' first two games, the remainder of the rotation will work out to be Rusch, Mitre, and Dempster, and I'd throw them in that order were I managing the Cubs. Best-case scenario is that the contest for the fifth starter will just be extended for a week or two, but there's a real chance (if small at this point) that at least two of these three guys will log several starts in a row at the start of the season.

The other thing that will happen is that it's almost certain that the Cubs will go with 12 pitchers out of camp. They might have done that anyways, but in the case where suddenly the three guys battling for the last spot in the rotation all need to start, the extra help in middle relief is a necessity. It might also mean that Mike Remlinger is the only lefty out of the pen for the Cubs for a while. There are plenty of arms in camp that Chicago can press into service. Borowski looks like he's on his way to recovery and winning his closer's job back. Hawkins will be the 8th inning guy. Jon Leicester, Michael Wuertz, and Todd Wellemeyer all served in the Cubs' pen last season. Non-roster and former Florida Marlin Chad Fox is also in camp, and making some waves in his own recovery from two injury-riddled seasons. The Cubs also have some young lefties in camp like Jon Koronka and Angel Guzman that might supplant any of the above named righties outside of Hawkins and Borowski, but if all the righties are healthy, the guess here is that Remlinger is the only lefty in the pen when camp breaks.

Some good can come from a little adversity, and if Prior and Wood's absences are brief, little harm will be done, and perhaps either Mitre or Dempster can show that they're ready to start, or start again in Dempster's case, which would allow Rusch to be used as a valuable swing man out of the bullpen once the big guys are back on the squad. Obviously lengthy absences by both stars are going to jeopardize Chicago's chances at postseason play, unless all the fill-ins are better than they've shown so far. The variance for the possible outcomes of the Cubs' season has grown considerably, and almost certainly for the worse, barring full recoveries from just-long-enough absences by Prior and Wood that actually end up improving the Cubs somewhat shaky bullpen.