Boston Red Sox 2005 Season Preview

By Matt Wall

"I am your Papi, Luke, you know it to be true."

"The frustrations of Red Sox fans may have been stretched to a new fever pitch by the A-Rod debacle, and their furious venom will be felt on A-Rod's neck, no doubt, at least in aural form. To my mind, that puts all the pressure on the Yankees this year, and with as strong a team as has been put together in the playoff era, the Red Sox may yet finally strike and kill the snakes for once. Matter will become anti-matter, day becomes night, the universe as we know it will come to an end, and the Red Sox will win the World's Championship."

Just to prove that the monkey has to get it right eventually: the above is the last paragraph of my season preview for the 2004 Red Sox. As it turned out, when it counted in the ALCS, the Red Sox played loose and the Yankees played tight, and with two closely-matched teams, that was a difference-maker. But as fans everywhere riding on the championship crest end up saying: what have you done for me lately?

We live in an odd era of team sports, where individual championships don't seem to count for as much as the capacity of a team to repeat, and repeat again, and get that "dynasty" label. The exciting World Series victories of the Marlins in '03, the Angels in '02, and the Diamondbacks in '01 seem to have created no stir in the historical wind tunnel, perhaps because each of these teams failed to make a credible run at a repeat in subsequent years. The '04 Red Sox victory, of course, has all the panache associated with the heated Yankees-Red Sox rivalry and the long Boston drought. With the dissipation of all the "not in my lifetime" angst in New England, the question is going to inevitably turn to whether the Red Sox will be able to repeat. Even in a non-salary-capped sport, it's quite difficult to repeat with 30 or more teams in a professional sports league: random variations of luck with that many teams, and with eight playoff teams in the majors, are enough to topple the dynastic status of even the most payroll-laden clubs.

With the turnover rates on rosters, every team is unique every year, anyway, so a "dynasty" label just doesn't mean what it did when the 1939 Yankees put on their stirrups and flannels. And so it is with the 2005 Red Sox. From the rotation, Pedro Martinez and Derek Lowe are gone to the National League. All three of the trading-deadline additions that helped put the Sox over the top -- Orlando Cabrera, Doug Mientikiewicz, and Dave Roberts -- have departed by free agency or trade. The bullpen's set-up crew has churned yet again.

The difference will not be in the starting offensive lineup for the most part, though. The one new addition is the slick-fielding but somehow perennially-underachieving-at-the-plate Edgar Renteria, last seen by the Sox making an out in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the 2004 World Series in a Cardinals uniform. Reneteria's career OBP/OPS of .346/.746 may look like a downgrade compared to Nomar Garciaparra's .370/.919, but Renteria is a mercurial presence offensively. He backslid last year after cutting his strikeout rate consistently from a career-high 108 in 1997 to 54 in 2003. He's but two years younger than Nomar, so significant improvements are unlikely. But he does have a broader offensive skill set than Nomar: quite a bit less pop, but quite a bit more speed (topping 30 swipes three times and averaging 26 a year), better situational plate discipline, the ability to sacrifice. And Renteria's been a reliable source of 150 games or more of well above-average defense at short his entire career, certainly a major improvement over the shadow-Garciaparra of the last few years. Renteria will be plugged into the occasionally-troublesome No. 2 spot in the lineup for the Red Sox, occupied last year by Bill Mueller, Mark Bellhorn, and a cast of supporting players.

And the good news for the Red Sox is that they've got the rest of their 2004 starting lineup (accounting for injuries last year to Bill Mueller and Trot Nixon) more or less intact. Johnny Damon, coming off a career year in 2004, will lead off, giving the Sox speed in the first two spots of the lineup for the first time since... well, probably the days of Harry Hooper and Tris Speaker. Damon's range has only been average in center, and with his regular left fielder, that makes the Sox outfield defense still rather suspect overall.

Speaking of which, Manny Ramirez will still lumber out to left field in the No. 3 spot. Has the World Series MVP ever been involved in so many embarrassing defensive blunders as Manny was? Does it matter? Not with a career OPS of 1.010 and no apparent signs of decline in Manny's bat or batting eye.

LCS hero David Ortiz will take a few turns at first base, but will play most of the year at DH and bat cleanup. Papi proved a couple of things in '04. First was that his breakout in '03 was no fluke. On top of that, he set a career high with 150 games played, showing he doesn't have to be played situationally. He's not terrible at first, especially with rest, and his amazing resemblance to Mo Vaughn seems to end at the edge of the batting box. Ortiz established himself as a player to be feared at the end of last season, and that should carry him through in good stead in '05.

Trot Nixon in '04, however, proved that his nearly injury-free stretch in '02 and '03 was indeed a fluke, and managed yet-another injury that limited him to only 48 games played. I'm not ever sure what to make of a player like this: he could just be a bit unlucky, or there could be something fundamental to his physical make-up that makes him injury-prone. There are few better right fielders than a healthy Nixon, and he has game-breaking power well-suited to the five spot in the line-up. Nixon was a difference-maker in the post-season last year, and if he stays off the DL all year by some miracle, then the heart of the Sox lineup is actually better than last year's.

Kevin Millar was briefly on the trading block this winter when the Sox realized they couldn't keep both him and Mientkiewicz in the lineup enough, and he sure wasn't happy about it, but Mientkiewicz was the one to go. For good reason, too: Millar can hit, and that's the important thing at first base. He's had a decent OBP hovering in the .360-.380 range most of his career, modest power, and All-Star interviewing skills. Since he can also play right field, he provides built-in roster insurance for Nixon. I predict a rosy future for Millar at Red Sox fantasy camps in about 15 years.

In the seventh spot, we've got newly-anointed team captain, Jason Varitek, backing up the stop. The Sox signed Varitek to a long-term deal in the off-season, unusual for them, especially with a 32-year-old catcher. But the Sox have tremendous confidence in Varitek's ability to handle a pitching staff, and Tek is one of the half dozen or so best-hitting catchers in the majors, with steady power and a decent OBP enhanced by hitting behind a nice mini-murderer's row. One should expect a slow decline in his offense and games played, but for '05 he should be a close analog to the '04 model.

Mark Bellhorn returns as the occasionally-heavy-gloved second sacker, and will likely hit eighth or ninth. Bellhorn's post-season homer-roics should not have been a surprise. His only full season of games prior to '04 was 2002, when he clubbed 27 dingers and copped a .374 OBP. Given 138 games in '04, he matched the OBP and topped his total bases from his career '02 year. His defense is a bit below par, but how important that is at second -- especially with the great range of Renteria over at short supporting him this year -- is arguable. A very solid and probably still-underrated part of the Sox lineup.

Bill Mueller completes the picture at third base; he'll likely bat eighth or ninth. Mueller's 2004 started out on the DL after his batting title year of 2003, and he ended the year with a career-low OBP of .365 -- still above average, although not so much for a corner man with limited power. Mueller may be the best defender in the regular line-up, but with Kevin Youkilis waiting in the wings, Mueller will probably see a little less time than he'd like and might be trade bait if Youkilis gets enough at-bats to break out. However, as a bottom of the lineup guy, having a former batting champion to call on shows what top to bottom oomph the Red Sox will have this year.

The bench has rotated yet again, and again GM Theo Epstein has supplied brand-name spare parts. In trade from San Diego for Dave Roberts the Sox obtained no-hit utility infielder Ramon Vazquez and no-hit outfielder Jay Payton. Vazquez is very good defensively, and has the virtue that he can play any infield position - probably better than any starter save Bill Mueller. Jay Payton made the mouths of rotisserie players water when he went to Colorado in '03 and slapped out 28 dingers, but it was, like much at Coors, an illusion: as a regular, he's a low-double-digits homer hitter and a bottom-of-the-league OBP man among outfielders. But Payton is fast, and is one of the best defenders around -- and can also play all three outfield positions, again better than any of the Sox regulars, Trot Nixon probably included. Kevin Youkilis, the "Greek God of Walks", turns 26 in March and is out of options and without a regular job as yet. It seems likely that if the Sox don't play him, they'll use him as trade bait in mid-season, as his vaunted OBP skills are in higher demand these days. He has to show some more power at the big-league level and acceptable defense, but the Sox will showcase him, so expect to see him spelling Mueller and David Ortiz a couple of times a week. David McCarty completes the infield replacements, and may well be allowed to do his Brooks Kieschnick impersonation and provide an extra emergency pitcher to the Sox on occasion. However, the Sox have invited Roberto Petagine to spring training, and if he hits well, McCarty may find himself in Pawtucket or Tampa Bay soon enough. Petagine was an above-average hitter who just couldn't find a job in the majors at first, got the inaccurate label as a four-A player, and has spent the last three years in Japan. He had star potential as a Mets prospect, and I've little reason to think he can't be a significant player: he's no Brian Daubach or Morgan Burkhart. Rounding out the bench is Doug Mirabelli, who probably could start on half the other teams in the majors. He's an outstanding second catcher with an above-average bat and a great attitude, who will be a good relief for Varitek.

The picture above shows three things:

(1) a probably untoppable offense in terms of consistent production from top to bottom.

(2) an aging but not quite too old lineup, with every regular in his early 30s. I haven't done the calculations, but I'd be surprised if the Sox weren't one of the two or three oldest lineups in baseball this year.

(3) a team still weak defensively, and because of (2), it will likely continue to weaken, but because of (1), this likely won't matter for the bulk of the season. Last year the Sox made do with defensive and pinch-running specialists for September and October to make up for the baserunning and defensive weaknesses of the regulars, and it worked out well in the close and late games where such things matter.

On to the pitching, eternally the big question and in some ways more so this year than last. The rotation seems to be Curt Schilling, David Wells, Matt Clement, and two of Bronson Arroyo, Tim Wakefield, and Wade Miller, depending on who's healthy (and how fragile Tim Wakefield's ego is -- he's always seen himself as a starter first, but is more valuable to the club as a utility pitcher.)

Schilling has a reputation as a workhorse, and indeed, counting the post-season he topped 250 IP last year for the fourth time in his career. But in 13 full seasons in the bigs, Schilling's missed significant time in half those years. At 38, coming off the bloody-sock surgery, expectations of true domination should be tempered a bit. Still, with his resume close to but not quite at Hall of Fame levels, Schilling will have plenty of incentive to go the distance, and will have the reputation to help him through the rough patches. He will probably start the season on the DL, and recovery times at this age suggest he won't be pitching at 100% until school is out for the summer.

So how do you replace a fragile-egoed, mercurial, slight of frame, once-brilliant but now-limited superstar like Pedro Martinez? How about replacing him with a fragile-egoed, mercurial, gigantic, once-brilliant but now-limited star a decade older and about a hundred pounds heavier? Sox fans, meet Babe Ruth aficionado and sometime look-alike (in profile) David Wells. Wells has actually been pretty consistent over the last three years, with a league-average ERA, making 30 starts and getting in about 200 innings, and being very good about a third of the time, good enough a third of the time, and not so good another third of the time. He's a downgrade from Pedro, no matter what spin the Sox management tries to put on it, but at the same time he's made out of much more rubbery stuff than Petey -- both literally, and figuratively as far as ego and durability goes. But there aren't that many 42-year old pitchers who've made good, and I don't see Wells as having a chance of being anything but a league-average starter at best.

Not so the Sox' other two off-season acquisitions, Matt Clement and Wade Miller. Both are fastball pitchers, with Clement averaging nearly a K per inning pitched over the last half decade. Clement's 31, and Miller's 28, excellent coming-of-age points for pitchers. Both have been snake-bit by injuries, bad luck, inconsistency, and who-knows-what. Changes of scenery can help guys like this, and NL watchers have long pegged both gents as aces-in-waiting. They've both had reasonable success at the major league level despite the vagaries of their win-loss lines. As such, figure the odds are that one of the two will be brilliant or above-average, and the other one so-so -- which will be which, I don't know. There's also the possibility both will blossom in a new league, especially early. I certainly expect them both to out-perform Wells.

Rounding out the bottom are Bronson Arroyo, who was a key part of the Sox' playoff victories last year, and knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who also successfully chased away his '03 ghosts with a couple of key late-season performances. Arroyo has proved himself useful out of the bullpen, which may be bad news for him professionally, since it's the starters who take home the big bucks in free agency. Expect him to spot-start and spend time primarily as a set-up man. Still, he'll get starts while Schilling is out and if he's consistent early, could end up in the rotation the whole year. Wakefield, who is useful as any knuckleballer is because of his ability to eat innings and occasionally throw the opposition off, is probable best off as a middle-innings eater, but as the senior member of the Red Sox will probably have enough respect to keep him in the number five spot until ineffectiveness chases him.

The bullpen leads off with Keith Foulke as closer, who probably should've received the MVP award in the World Series -- he finished all four games in a sweep -- but lost to Ramirez' record-tying postgame hitting streak. (I think it's possible Foulke made more critical defensive plays than Manny did.) Mike Timlin returns as the righty set-up man, and Alan Embree as the lefty, giving the Sox a strong veteran bullpen. Former Diamondbacks and Marlins closer Matt Mantei, long one of owner John Henry's favorite players, was signed as a bridge man and possible emergency closer. Mantei has lost several seasons to injury and remains an unknown quantity. If he pitches close to his best years with Arizona -- 1999 and 2003, his only good years, come to think of it -- he could be an incredible asset. John Halama, a lefty and former starter, was the swing man for Seattle, Oakland, and Tampa Bay the last three seasons. He's been only fair, but had a super-prospect label on him once upon a time, and as a lefty who can spot start could be quite useful. Expect him to work as the seventh-inning situational lefty for the most part. Finally, until traded, Byung Hung Kim will complete the bullpen, giving the Red Sox a bullpen featuring four once-upon-a-time closers. Kim is still very young -- 26 -- and has lots of experience, not all of it good, under pressure. As such, he could be a great surprise, especially since expectations are so abysmally low for him from both management and fans. His deceptive under-arm motion might actually be best-suited for the role that Mike Myers played last year, as the fool-a-specific-batter late-inning specialty pitcher. Of course Kim has also been a starter. Four-A (and somewhat long-toothed) relievers Mark Malaska, Anastacio Martinez, and Lenny DiNardo will make the trek up and down I-95 from Pawtucket as injuries and performance dictate; prospect Abe Alvarez may make an appearance as well -- he made his major league debut last year as an emergency starter, out of AA.

One of my favorite sayings is you can't be too rich, too thin, or have too much starting pitching. I'm actually not so sure about the too-rich and too-thin parts, but I'm positive it's impossible for a club to have too many viable starters. The Sox have Schilling, Wells, Clement, Miller, Arroyo, Wakefield, Halama, Kim, and Alvarez all as credible starting pitching options. I doubt the staff will dominate, but if properly rested -- and with all those options, it's on Terry Francona's head if they aren't -- the starters should be plenty sufficient to keep the Sox in the game until the seventh on top of the expected levels of offensive support.

The bullpen is pretty solid, albeit with a few question marks. But those question marks are in the seventh inning -- which is where I expect the Red Sox will see most of their trouble this year, before the team gets to the heart of its pen and before the defensive replacements are rolled out. The Red Sox may want to reconsider limiting beer sales after the sixth, since half the delays due to pitching changes will likely be sandwiched around the seventh-inning stretch.

The bottom line: this is a veteran, very professional club, that apparently has all the good chemistry lingering from last year. While some additions might be troubling -- cf. David Wells -- compared to the departed prima donnas of Pedro Martinez and Nomar Garciaparra, it's clear that team composition won't be a problem. With a killer offensive lineup, the adequate pitching should be sufficient to carry the club to the post-season. With older clubs, your likelihood of being derailed by injury usually is higher, but the many-hands-on-deck approach and Theo Epstein's proven capabilities to get the requisite missing parts suggest the club will overcome the inevitable star injuries -- as it did last year.

It will be easy enough to cast this season as a Red Sox - Yankees rematch, as if it were Joe Louis and Max Schmelling going toe to toe for the third time, but it's important for Sox fans to keep in mind there are 28 other teams in the league, perhaps 20 of which have a shot at the ring. If the Red Sox themselves can elevate themselves to get over coasting on last year's laurels, to ignore the oversold rivalry with the Yankees, and take all comers seriously, they're certainly among the handful of teams with good chances to win it all. But the reader will note that unlike last year, when I had the unqualified opinion that the Sox had the best team in the league from the outset, I'm not making the bold repeat prediction.

That the Red Sox are not odds-on favorites is a good thing: it will make the season that much more interesting.