Florida Marlins 2004 Season Preview

Dontrelle hopes to be pitching in the post-season for a second straight year

The Astros spent the winter signing Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens. The Cubs brought Greg Maddux back from Atlanta, the Red Sox were able to team Curt Schilling with Pedro Martinez, and the Yankees rescued Javier Vasquez from Montreal and imported Kevin Brown from the Dodgers. Everywhere you looked this winter, it seemed that pitching was on the minds of major league general managers from coast to coast. Why? Well, simply put, offense may bring fans to the ballpark but pitching wins pennants and World Series. And if you don't believe me, just look at the results from last fall, when strong pitching by the Florida Marlins in October led them to their second world title. 

So while everyone seemed to be revamping their pitching staffs, the Marlins were able to rest easy, knowing they already had one of the strongest starting staffs in the majors. 

This is not to say that they rested on their laurels over the winter; they did not. And this is not to say that the 25-man roster is completely set early in spring training, it is not. But the backbone of the team, the young starting pitching, remains intact, and because of that, the Florida Marlins have to be considered one of the favorites to reach the 2004 post-season. 

Here are two examples of what I mean: 

* 22-year-old Dontrelle Willis, winner of 14 games and the National League Rookie of the Year award, could eventually wind up in the bullpen.

  * 23-year-old Josh Beckett, the World Series MVP who was overpowering in the post-season, isn't even considered to be the best pitcher on the staff.

  Willis is currently in the starting rotation, but that could change before the season ends. A.J. Burnett, who already has a no-hitter to his credit and led the majors with five shutouts in 2002, missed most of last season after reconstructive elbow surgery, but is expected to return before Memorial Day. Once he is back at full strength, he should re-claim his status as the staff ace, and manager Jack McKeon will have the pleasant problem of trying to work him into a rotation that already includes studs Brad Penny and Carl Pavano, former Texas Ranger Darren Oliver, and the aforementioned Beckett and Willis. Someone may have to go live in the Œpen, and Willis seems to the likeliest candidate. That, however, may not really be a demotion. The bullpen would appear to be, at this juncture, the weakest spot on the club, so Willis' abilities would be giving it an upgrade. Right now the unpredictable and often combustible Armando Benitez is the new closer. General Manager Larry Beinfest must think this is an improvement over Ugueth Urbina and Braden Looper, last year's short men, but I would call this wishful thinking, based on Benitez' track record. The reliable Chad Fox is back to serve as a setup man, but after that the bullpen is thin. So if Willis moves out to the north forty, it will shore up a potential trouble spot. 

The bench is also an area of concern, but that is often something that can be addressed during the season, either with small trades or minor league call-ups. For instance, if centerfielder and team sparkplug Juan Pierre goes down for any reason, his projected backup is 37-year-old Gerald Williams. If hard-hitting third baseman Mike Lowell is lost for any length of time, McKeon could either go to Mike Mordecai or wunderkind Miguel Cabrera. Mordecai is a nice player who would do an adequate job both offensively and defensively for a short period of time; plus, he won't supply any power. Cabrera, last season's other rookie sensation (62 RBI in 87 games after being recalled from Double-A), is now considered one of the regular outfielders after primarily playing third in the minors, so they wouldn't lose anything there, but once again it makes a starter out of Gerald Williams. In other words, the Marlins' bench is weak; it wouldn't surprise me to see Beinfest address that during the season. 

The starting lineup, however, is strong and primarily young. While the unsung and underrated Derrek Lee is gone in a deal with the Cubs, his replacement at first base, Hee Seop Choi, has been considered a potential star for several seasons. He had a rough rookie campaign last year in Wrigley, including missing time due to a nasty head injury, so it remains to be seen if he can fulfill that promise. It says here that McKeon will be better for him long-term than Dusty Baker. The rest of the infield is intact and excellent defensively, with speedy Luis Castillo and steady Alex Gonzalez up the middle and Lowell, the only member of this quartet to turn 30, manning the hot corner. You already know that Juan Pierre plays center and sets the table possibly better than anyone in the game, and that Miguel Cabrera will take his rocket arm to right field. That leaves left field in the hands of Jeff Conine, the only true old-timer in the starting lineup. He will turn 38 in mid-season, but last year he proved he still had plenty of sock in his bat, supplying numerous clutch hits, and was also nimble enough to make the basic plays in the outfield. Barring injury, he ought to provide firepower in the middle of the lineup this year, but the Marlins need to be developing someone for the long-term in their farm system. 

Which only leaves us to discuss the catching situation. This could prove to be a problem for the Marlins, both on the field and in the clubhouse. Remember who manned the position last year? None other than Ivan Rodriguez, a former MVP (with the Rangers) and potential Hall of Famer. Pudge had a great summer and fall, offering a veteran's steady hand to that young pitching staff and practiced advice to all those kids who had never been involved in a pennant race and post-season before. He seemed to be a perfect fit for this team, with several prime years left at age 32. The Florida braintrust disagreed, however, refusing to give him a four-year contract, and Pudge trudged off to Detroit. Thus the Marlins go into 2004 with a catching platoon of Mike Redmond and Ramon Castro. Redmond is an excellent receiver with a soft .290 career batting average ­ 80 percent of his career hits have been singles. He has also never played in 90 games or had 260 at-bats in a single major league season. And Castro, the nominal starter due to his age (28) and power potential, is a lifetime .232 hitter with fewer than 400 at-bats in the majors. I am frankly baffled as to why the Marlins let Rodriguez leave; I think I would have tried to come to some agreement with the player who very definitely became the heart of the club. His departure could have a serious impact on their ability to defend their title, especially since they reside in a division, the National League East, also occupied by the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. 

In the end, though, it always comes down to pitching. Barring injury, of course, the Marlins should be in the thick of the race all year, especially if manager Jack McKeon and pitching coach Wayne Rosenthal are able to develop their bullpen. Without Ivan Rodriguez the team may not play with quite as much passion, but they all have that post-season experience which can prove to be oh-so-valuable come September... and beyond.