Playoff Previews

SF Giants vs. Florida Marlins

By Adam J. Ulrey

First off, raise your hands if you saw this match up coming at the start of the season, or for that matter even into August. Yet here it is - the upstart Marlins coming to take on the mighty Giants of San Fran. During the season these teams met six times and it was all Giants, they won 5 out of 6. But this is now a totally different Marlins team playing with extreme confidence and believing they can beat the Giants.

Jack McKeon, their 72-year-old manager, who the Marlins brass brought out of retirement to try and instill a winning attitude, leads them. Everybody including yours truly was left scratching our heads when the announcement of McKeon was announced. I was like "that's your answer to filling the managers position?" Yet all he's done is lead the Marlins to a 72-48 record since talking over and now he has them in the playoffs. When you consider that the Marlins lost their best starting pitcher for the year, AJ Burnett, before the season started and Josh Beckett, their number two starter, for most of the first two months, it even makes it more amazing.

McKeon and the organization made two subtle call ups that changed the dynamics of the team and the city. First was bringing up the phenomenal Dontrell Willis to pitch from Double A and then adding the bat of Miguel Cabrera. Willis all of 21 years-old helped bring excitement to baseball and Miami. Every time this kid goes out and pitches there's a buzz in the crowd whether he's pitching at home or on the road. Willis is 13-6 with a nice 3.41 ERA. He struggled a little coming down the stretch and will be the Game #4 starter against Jerome Williams if necessary.

The Giants on the other hand have been and stayed in first place all year long and were never really challenged. 67 year-old manager Felipe Alou is also looking forward to beating the Marlins as the owner Jeffrey Lorie is the one who ran him out in Montreal. So there is a little revenge factor for Alou.

The pitching match ups look intriguing with Jason Schmidt (17-5, 2.34 ERA) vs. Josh Beckett (9-8, 3.04 ERA) going in Game #1. Schmidt in any other year would probably win the Cy Young (It will probably go to Eric Gagne of the Dodgers) has the edge on the younger Beckett. Beckett, in the month of September, was a horse for this team winning big game one after another. The edge goes to Schmidt. Game #2 features Brad Penny (14-10, 4.13 ERA) against Sidney Ponson (3-6, 3.71 ERA. his Giants stats). Penny tied for the team lead in wins, but tends to give up too many homers and Ponson was at times dominant and other times he would get lit up. Since it's in Pac Bell the edge goes to Ponson. Game #3 will match lefty against lefty with Kirk Rueter (10-5, 4.53 ERA) vs. Mark Redman (14-9, 3.59 ERA). Both of these pitchers rely on junk and craftiness to get batters out. Redman has been a terrific tutor for the younger pitchers on the Marlins. Edge goes to Redman at home. The one weakness that the Marlins have is against hard throwing right-handed pitchers, hence the Schmidt, Ponson and Williams combination. Neither bullpen is great.

The offensive numbers for both teams are almost identical. The Marlins have scored four more runs than the Giants and have a slight advantage in batting average .266 to .263. The Giants hit more homers, but the Marlins have more extra base hits than the Giants. The Marlins have a huge advantage in the running game with 149 steals compared to the Giants with 51. The Giants have two players with over 220 total bases while the Marlins whole lineup with the exception of late season call up Cabrera have over 220 total bases. The Marlins are a hitting machine and with Mike Lowell possibly back for the playoffs it makes them even stronger. It all starts at the top of the lineup for the Marlins. If Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo are getting on base it could be a short series for the Giants. Because after those two comes Derek Lee and his 31 homers followed by Pudge Rodriguez, Juan Encarnacion and Cabrera. Cabrera was a real shot in the arm when Injuries to Todd Hollingsworth and Lowell hit the club. He ended up hitting .268 with 12 homers and 62 RBIs in just over half a season. The Giants have the man, Barry Bonds, the greatest hitter I have ever seen. He changes the way a team prepares to face the Giants. It will be interesting to see if McKeon allows his staff to pitch to Bonds. There is really no one on the Giants to hit behind him and it will probably be Benito Santiago again. Marquis Grissom had a bounce back year at the age of 35 hitting .300 with 20 homers and 79 RBIs batting in front of Barry. For the Giants to force the Marlins to pitch to Bonds, Ray Durham, the lead off hitter, Grissom and Rich Aurilla will have to get on base. If the Marlins are able to control the top of the Giants lineup it won't matter too much what Bonds does. If the Giants have people on when Bonds comes up look for them to walk him every time. There is no way you pitch to him in that situation. It's like playing Russian roulette and you'll eventually lose. I'd take my chances with whoever is behind Bonds and force him to be the man.

I like the Marlins chances in this series, but in the end I still think will see the Giants move on to the second round. I'm picking the Giants in four.