Playoff PreviewsMinnesota Twins vs. New York YankeesBy Tom Renbarger The ALDS matchup between the Twins and the Yankees pits two teams who, in spite of having clinched their respective division titles on the same day, took very different routes in getting there. The Yankees started out on fire, winning 18 of their first 21 before going through an 11-19 stretch which at its end found them two games behind the Red Sox on May 26. After a tight June the Yankees managed to keep the Red Sox at arm's length in the second half. The Yanks absorbed lengthy injury stints to Derek Jeter, Bernie Williams, and Nick Johnson, and lackluster performances from their pen (outside Mariano Rivera) and trade deadline pickup Aaron Boone to finish with the best record in the AL. The Twins had an up-and-down start, finding themselves 8 games back of the red hot KC Royals as early as April 24 before claiming first place in the AL Central for the first time on May 18. They held on to first for five weeks before being caught on June 24 and overtaken a few days later by the pesky Royals. This was the beginning of a tailspin which found the Twins in third place 8 games back (again) by the All-Star Break. Key midseason developments, including the acquisition of Shannon Stewart, the insertion of Johan Santana into the starting rotation, and the rediscovery of Brad Radke's changeup and Doug Mientkiewicz's batting eye propelled the Twins into the thick of a three-team race after the break. This race, tight through August and the first part of September, was blown open when the Twins took five of seven from the White Sox (who were tied with the Twins at the start of the series in Comiskey) in two key series, including a three game sweep in Minneapolis from Sept. 16-18. The Twins' season clearly turned around when, having dropped the first two in Chicago, were led by Santana and Radke to a series split, leading up to the sweep in Minneapolis. Mopping up against Detroit and Cleveland, and aided by a September fade of the Royals, the Twins had clinched the AL Central going away.Much of the "down" in the Twins' early up-and-down start was due to the Yankees, who beat the Twins in seven straight matchups by April 21. These games were over five months ago, though, and while the Yanks are playing extremely well since the return of Derek Jeter, the Twins clinched the AL Central riding the crest of an 11-game winning streak. Those April games saw Johan Santana in the Twins' bullpen and Brad Radke struggling with his stuff, not to mention Shannon Stewart in a Blue Jays uniform. The Twins will give the Yankees all they can handle. The Yankees will send out Mike Mussina (17-8, 3.40 ERA), Andy Pettitte (21-8, 4.02), and Roger Clemens (17-9, 3.91) in the first three games. The Twins will counter with Johan Santana (12-3, 3.07), Brad Radke (14-10, 4.49), and Kyle Lohse (14-11, 4.64). The Yanks top three all have career winning records vs. the Twins, with Mussina sporting a lifetime 20-2 mark. This makes it look a clear edge to New York, though since the All-Star Break the Twins trio have compiled a combined 25-5 record with a 3.61 ERA. They'll be fine. A bit of gamesmanship surrounds possible Game 4 starters. It will be the case that Game 1 starters will have four days rest for Game 4, and neither Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire nor Yankee skipper Joe Torre is tipping his hand. Look at the very least for the team facing elimination in Game 4 to start their Game 1 starter. The other possible Game 4 starter is David Wells with Jose Contreras moving to the bullpen. Kenny Rogers and recently activated Eric Milton could start Game 4 for the Twins. Rick Reed will be sent to the Twins bullpen for the ALDS. The Twins will have Juan Rincon, J. C. Romero, LaTroy Hawkins, and Eddie Guardado rounding out their 'pen. Hawkins and Guardado have been throwing great, Rincon has been solid but not outstanding, and Romero has scuffled recently. Jeff Nelson, Antonio Osuna, Felix Heredia, and Chris Hammond are the most likely suspects to try to get the lead to Mariano Rivera in the 9th (or perhaps part way through the 8th). They're OK, but not at the level of Rincon, Hawkins, and Romero (when he's right). If outfielder David Dellucci is not able to come back for the ALDS, Torre will probably take an 11th pitcher, though who that would be is unclear at this time. Perhaps it will be Sterling Hitchcock, though he hasn't impressed so far this year.
The Twins lineup will look something like this:
The Yankees will go with something like this lineup: The Yanks have a better lineup. Soriano is a power/speed weapon at the top of the lineup. Jeter has the lowest OBP in the 2-5 slots at .390. Williams has been hampered by a shoulder injury, so he's off his career OBP and SLG, but is still dangerous. Matsui has shown that he can knock in runs hitting behind Giambi and Posada. Aaron Boone is a pretty dangerous #8, though he hasn't really shown it since coming over to New York at the no-waiver trading deadline. The Twins have a lot of guys slugging in the .450-.470 range. Giambi, Soriano, and Posada all top .500, and Nick Johnson is in the .490s. Lots of players (6 in fact) in the 10-17 HR range for Minnesota, but only one guy, Torii Hunter, above 20 (26). The three .500+ slugging Yankees all have at least 30 homers, Boone is at 23 between the Reds (18) and Yankees (5), and Johnson, Jeter, Williams and Matsui have all broken double digits. Furthermore, all eight of the aforementioned Yankees can be in the lineup at the same time, while there just isn't room for Jones, Mohr, Pierzynski and LeCroy to be together in the Twins lineup. Hunter also was the only Twin to drive in 100 runs, but he still left a fair number of ribbies stranded, having had plenty of chances hitting behind Mientkiewicz and Koskie for a lot of the season. Minnesota has too many guys in the .310s (Rivas, Hunter, Guzman) for OBP. Mientkiewicz has a wrist injury that will require offseason surgery, and Jones has battled a tender groin in the second half, but they've both gotten plenty of rest in the last week, and will be ready for the start of the series. If the Twins can manage to keep things close, they are the better fielding team. Minnesota was second in the league in fewest errors (83 to Seattle's incredible 61), while New York, with 110 errors, finished 10th in the AL in that category. The Twins are pretty rangy across the infield and in center, so the old saw of "fewer errors because of less range" doesn't apply.In the end, the key performer will be Johan Santana. You know more or less what you're going to get from the Yankees rotation. Santana has been arguably the best lefty in the game since the break, though you have to get Pettitte in that discussion as well. The Yanks have had a bit of trouble against left-handers, so if the Twins can scratch out a few runs off the starters or get into a mediocre Yankees bullpen, a strong performance by their young ace could be the key to the upset. They aren't all that great on turf, either, so a steal of one of the first two games in New York combined with holding serve in Minneapolis could get the Twins a win in 4. It says here, though, that a disciplined New York lineup and strong rotation is just enough to hold off a serious challenge from Minnesota for a series win in 5 games. Leave feedback on our message board. |